If you have the under and Paul Goldschmidt suddenly contracts dengue fever, your $100 bet becomes $200. The same for all other bets except those so marked in the third column. In those cases, wagering on the under requires a $115 bet to win $200. Bookie's kids need new shoes.
|Team||Will they win more or fewer games than ...||Special considerations|
Most of these seem pretty reasonable on March 1, given our limited information. The Pirates and Red Sox weren't as good as last year's records and this year are more likely to reflect that. San Francisco has too much talent to lose more than they win two years running. The Nats will bounce back. Yes, the Phillies will be awful.
Gun to your head, you should bet the over on the Yankees, Mets, Astros, Blue Jays. It's difficult to conceive the pinstripes as also-rans, particularly assuming that they will make moves during the season. The Mets, who had nothing last year and won more than 71.5 games, added Curtis Granderson to a young squad likely to improve. Everything has to go "right" for Houston to lose 105 games, even with a roster of minor leaguers. Toronto plays in a tough division but has way too much talent for last year's fluky crash-and-burn scenario to repeat itself. Maybe the same for the Angels.
The Royals look like a good under bet. They lost to free agency the only Major League starter they had. Seattle seems like a pretty shaky proposition to break .500 in a tough division, despite signing Robinson Cano. It's hard to believe Baltimore doesn't finally turn into a pumpkin, though that is already accounted for somewhat by the oddsmakers.
If you follow the logic here, L.A., St. Louis and Washington win their divisions with Cincinnati, Atlanta and San Francisco battling for two wild card slots. Detroit, Tampa and Oakland/Texas win their divisions in the AL with the loser of the Rangers/A's taking one wild card and the Red Sox nabbing the other.
Bringing up the rear in their divisions, according to Las Vegas odds, will be the Padres/Rockies, Cubs and Marlins in the NL and Astros, Twins and Blue Jays in the AL.
Here's one sure bet: it won't happen this way.