Cleveland and Detroit are locking up for a pair of early-season first-place duels this week. Even if swept (Max Scherzer shut them down in game one), the Tribe will remain atop the AL Central leaderboard. Riding a heavy-hitting lineup and a reconstituted rotation, first-year manager Terry Francona's squad is seeking to dispatch a couple of years of history when Cleveland burst out of the blocks and faded down the backstretch.
Meanwhile, a couple of hours east, the Pittsburgh Pirates are eight games over .500, a position they haven't occupied at season's end in a generation. They're employing the reverse formula -- superb relief pitching and a couple of good starters are carrying the rest of the team.
At the quarter pole, there's time to dream, but in these two beleaguered cities, there's also time to be skeptical. We've seen all this before; say, last year, with predictable and familiar results. The Indians, four games over .500 following the All-Star break, dropped 54 of their remaining 75 games and crashed to 65-91. The Bucs, two games above .500 with two weeks to play, lost 11 of their last 16 to finish 79-83, a 20th straight year losing more times than they won.
Wait 'til this year.
For one thing, both teams come by their records honestly. The Indians have out-slugged their opponents by 37 runs, not quite the hallmark of a 26-17 record, but indicative of quality. The Pirates have shut down enemy batters and while also out-performing their run differential, are giving up fewer runs than they score.
Moreover, both teams are paced by veteran youth and have spread the good play around. Pittsburgh's offensive roster is just six deep -- center fielder Andrew McCutchen, first baseman Gaby Sanchez, right fielder Jose Tabata, left fielder Starling Marte, first baseman/outfielder Garret Jones, and surprisingly, catcher Russell Martin -- but none of them is out of synch with career norms. If anyone else heats up, the bats could begin to contribute.
The starting pitching is strong and deep, led by A.J. Burnett's Yankee revenge and Astro exile Wandy Rodriguez. Francisco Liriano's two starts after recovering from a fractured left arm have been promising (two runs and 16 K in 11 innings) and could give the Pirates a one-two-three punch they've lacked since Doug Drabek-Randy Tomlin-Bob Walk in 1993, the last time they visited the post-season. (That team included a rookie named Tim Wakefield who knuckled his way to 8-1, 2.15.) Flame-throwing closer Jason Grilli (14+ K/9) anchors a relief corps with ERAs that look like digital code -- all ones and zeroes.
In other words, there's more upside than downside in the 2013 Pirates as long as they stay relatively healthy. Pittsburgh has played nine of 15 series against below .500 teams, but in the NL Central that's hard to avoid. they've yet to tussle with Miami, so there remain free wins on the schedule. Not only could they end the futility, they could kick off an era of contention.
Cleveland has remade itself in 2013 and so far the results portend more. The club signed Nick Swisher to a big deal, rescued Ryan Raburn from Detroit, took a flyer on Mark Reynolds and overpaid Michael Bourn. In one-fourth of a season, Bourn and Swisher are delivering as expected, Raburn has resurrected his career (OPS+ of 29 last year; 148 this year) and Reynolds is hitting .253. When Mark Reynolds hits .253, pitchers cry. At .253/.341/.548, the former Oriole hot cornerman has already bestowed upon his new employers all the value he created through the spring, summer and fall last season.
Add in young catcher Carlos Santana, one of the emerging stars in baseball, and slugging keystoner Jason Kipnis, and the result is the Majors' second most potent offense. Like the Pirates, there's not a lot of mean to regress to.
The warning signs are on the other side of the equation. After Cy Young contender Justin Masterson, the rotation is so porous that warmed-over remnants of Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir have made starts. The mercy rule is soon to take effect on the Kazmir experiment, but it's not clear who takes his place. Ubaldo Jimenez (5.31 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (15 BB in 16 innings) offer little solace. As with the Pirates, they're facing just their fifth .500+ team this week, but playing in the AL Central means KC, CHW and MIN pop up on the schedule regularly. (And they've yet to dip into the goodie bag that is the Astros.)
With a great skipper at the helm, the Indians have delivered more than the sum of their parts and can continue in that vein. If their goal, like the Pirates', is to step this side of mediocrity, they have a solid shot. Eighty-five wins is not an unreasonable goal. If visions of pennants dance in their heads they're going to need a couple of good arms, and soon.
21 May 2013
18 May 2013
Alburquerque in Toledo . . .and Other Tales
Alburquerque Now In Toledo
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio.
Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.
Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities?
Yes.
Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position.
Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).
Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.
Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.
Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.
Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.
By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.
Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.
Bud No Weiser
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.
All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):
Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792
And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.
With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.
Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start.
A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.
After uncorking 13 walks and six wild pitches in 14 innings, Tiger reliever Al Albuquerque has been optioned to the Triple-A club in central Ohio.
Can't wait for Houston Street to get traded to the Astros.
Brandon Phillips Leads League in RBI
After 40 games, Brandon Phillips leads the NL in RBIs with 36. Has he got some RBI magic or is he swimming in opportunities?
Yes.
Overall, Phillips is hitting just .286 with seven home runs. But he's delivering at a .450 clip with runners in scoring position.
Which is often. Phillips hits fourth in the Reds' lineup behind Shin-soo Choo (.452 OBP) and Joey Votto (.462 OBP).
Phillips is unlikely to renew his clutch-hitting subscription. But his opportunities club card is good for the entire season as long as Choo and Votto remain in the lineup. Barring injury, "Dat Dude" should tally his first 100-RBI season. And then he should take Choo and Votto out to dinner.
Ah, Choo
Speaking of Choo, he's lucky to be playing in this era. The 30-year-old right fielder is exactly the kind of heads-up five-tool player whose body of work was largely invisible in the pre-sabermetric days.
Since he began playing regularly for the Indians in 2008, Choo has averaged .293 with 18 homers and 73 RBI. But today we know that only scratches the surface.
Shin-soo Choo is an on-base machine who has lots of gap power. His .293/.389/.477 performance with an average of 17 steals at a 77% success rate makes him worth 34% more than the average hitter over that five-plus years. He's been worth 23 wins against replacement with the bat during that time, about four-and-a-half per year. That's perennial all-star territory.
By way of comparison, Ryan Howard's best five consecutive years with the stick were worth 18.3 wins, despite pounding 229 homers and bringing home 680 runs. Not to pick on Howard: Joe Carter's best six years added the same number of wins as Howard's five. His 180 homers, 652 RBI and 142 SB belied a .311 OBP. Carter got Hall of Fame votes.
Ten years ago, players like Shin-soo Choo were dismissed as complimentary parts and denied credit for the RBIs accumulated by the batters behind them. Today, we recognize all of Choo's attributes and more fully appreciate him. And when the baseball writers catch up to the rest of us, they'll finally elect Tim Raines to the Hall of Fame.
Bud No Weiser
During baseball games, Budweiser is proudly advertising their new "bowtie" shaped can. They are officially out of ideas.
All Or Nothing In Cincinnati Lineup
Cincinnati has struggled to score runs on occasion this year despite Votto, Choo, Phillips and Jay Bruce. If you're wondering why, here's the rest of the lineup and their OPS (an average starter has about a .750 OPS):
Todd Frazier, .693
Zack Cozrt, .573
Devin Mesoraco, .660
Xavier Paul, .792
And the first two guys off the bench, Chris Heisey and Ryan Hannigan, have OPS in the 400s.
With the starting core and first rate pitching to start and finish games, the Reds are a playoff threat. Another bat could really help.
Fact of the Day
Fox Sports mentioned this on their national broadcast: In 14 years as a Major Leaguer, 10 as a fulltime starter, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start.
A quintessentially average pitcher throughout his career, (lifetime 104 ERA+) Arroyo's durability and innings consumption have tremendous value to his team. At $11.5 million, his salary is right in the ballpark.
16 May 2013
A Seamhead Predicts This Year's Surprise Performers
Spring Training is
like a movie trailer. It's not the movie. It's often nothing like the
movie. It's made up entirely of elements from the movie, but in a
different context that can be very misleading. It has a different
purpose than the movie. Don't judge a movie by its trailer, or a player
by his Spring Training performance.
For one thing, its a ridiculously small sample size. (We're speaking of Spring Training now, but it also applies to the trailer.) For another, the competition is suspect. And many players use their time in Florida or Arizona to hone a particular skill.
And yet, sabermetric pioneer John Dewan, one of the founders of STATS, Inc. and the leading developer of fielding statistics, has determined that Spring Training does have predictive value in one narrow area.
Players whose slugging percentage spikes 200 points above their career norms experience breakout seasons 60% of the time. Think of Jose Bautista in 2010 and Jonathan Lucroy, AJ Pierzynski and Billy Butler last year. (A breakout season is generally considered a 20% increase in the relevant skill being measured, but that doesn't appear to be Dewan's yardstick. I'm not sure what standard he's using.)
With a modest .670 lifetime OPS his first two seasons, Lucroy busted loose for the Brewers last year, posting an .803 OPS in 2012, adding 35 points to his batting average, slugging 12 jacks in half a season's work and doubling his walk rate.
After 14 seasons behind the plate, Pierzynski had established himself as a solid (for a backstop) .740 OPS hitter, with slugging numbers in the low 400s and home runs in the low teens. Inexplicably last year, he slammed 27 long balls en route to a .501 SLG, an .827 OPS and the best effort with the stick of his career.
With an .820 lifetime OPS, Butler reached career highs with 29 homers, 107 RBI, an All-Star berth and an .882 OPS last year. Calling that a breakout is a bit of a reach, since "Country Breakfast" hit .300 and posted OPS of .850 twice before.
It's worth mentioning that none of the three -- there were plenty of others -- has maintained his great leap forward so far in 2013. That was to be expected of the 36-year-old Pierzynski. Because Lucroy is so young and Butler is every bit the star we saw in '12, the odds are on their side over the long haul.
All that said, here's Dewan's list of potential breakout candidates (minimum of 200 regular season at-bats and 40 spring training at-bats)
Hitter/Team, Spring Career Difference
Brandon Belt, Giants .906 .418 .488
Justin Smoak, Mariners .811 .377 .434
Howard Kendrick, Angels .833 .428 .405
Ryan Raburn, Indians .833 .430 .403
Nick Hundley, Padres .773 .390 .383
Rick Ankiel, Astros .780 .422 .358
Michael Morse, Mariners .824 .492 .332
Mike Moustakas, Royals .726 .395 .331
Brent Lillibridge, Cubs .675 .350 .325
Mark DeRosa, Blue Jays .725 .412 .313
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians .725 .421 .304
Kevin Youkilis, Yankees .778 .482 .296
Domonic Brown, Phillies .675 .388 .287
Mitch Moreland, Rangers .727 .441 .286
Wilin Rosario, Rockies .805 .522 .283
Dexter Fowler, Rockies .705 .427 .278
Alex Gordon, Royals .714 .439 .275
Craig Gentry, Rangers .618 .355 .263
Gaby Sanchez, Pirates .683 .420 .263
Bryce Harper, Nationals .730 .477 .253
Juan Francisco, Braves .692 .440 .252
Elvis Andrus, Rangers .604 .353 .251
Brandon Crawford, Giants .577 .333 .244
Steve Clevenger, Cubs .523 .281 .242
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays .655 .414 .241
Lucas Duda, Mets .660 .427 .233
Raul Ibanez, Mariners .700 .470 .230
Luis Cruz, Dodgers .600 .371 .229
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks .625 .400 .225
Freddie Freeman, Braves .671 .449 .222
Peter Bourjos, Angels .614 .402 .212
Ben Francisco, Yankees .636 .425 .211
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks .636 .432 .204
Lorenzo Cain, Royals .615 .412 .203
I'll bet my favorite trumpet, Otis Mahorn, that Raul Ibanez doesn't out-perform his stellar career at age 57 (or whatever.) Conversely, it would be quite the upset if Bryce Harper failed to make a quantum leap following his Rookie of the Year season.
And finally, whatever magic beans Luis Cruz was planting in the Spring lost their powers once the season began. Even his weak lifetime .371 SLG is going to be a stretch after losing his infield job with the Dodgers because of 71 plate appearances with a hollow bat. A walk and six singles later (in 71 trips to the plate! That's .090/.114/.090 for you slash stat buffs) he's on the bench behind substitutes who couldn't make the Marlins' roster if you spotted them 10 home runs.
If Dewan's research is borne out over time, we'll have another weapon in our growing arsenal of analysis. We'll keep an eye on this group.
For one thing, its a ridiculously small sample size. (We're speaking of Spring Training now, but it also applies to the trailer.) For another, the competition is suspect. And many players use their time in Florida or Arizona to hone a particular skill.
And yet, sabermetric pioneer John Dewan, one of the founders of STATS, Inc. and the leading developer of fielding statistics, has determined that Spring Training does have predictive value in one narrow area.
Players whose slugging percentage spikes 200 points above their career norms experience breakout seasons 60% of the time. Think of Jose Bautista in 2010 and Jonathan Lucroy, AJ Pierzynski and Billy Butler last year. (A breakout season is generally considered a 20% increase in the relevant skill being measured, but that doesn't appear to be Dewan's yardstick. I'm not sure what standard he's using.)
With a modest .670 lifetime OPS his first two seasons, Lucroy busted loose for the Brewers last year, posting an .803 OPS in 2012, adding 35 points to his batting average, slugging 12 jacks in half a season's work and doubling his walk rate.
After 14 seasons behind the plate, Pierzynski had established himself as a solid (for a backstop) .740 OPS hitter, with slugging numbers in the low 400s and home runs in the low teens. Inexplicably last year, he slammed 27 long balls en route to a .501 SLG, an .827 OPS and the best effort with the stick of his career.
With an .820 lifetime OPS, Butler reached career highs with 29 homers, 107 RBI, an All-Star berth and an .882 OPS last year. Calling that a breakout is a bit of a reach, since "Country Breakfast" hit .300 and posted OPS of .850 twice before.
It's worth mentioning that none of the three -- there were plenty of others -- has maintained his great leap forward so far in 2013. That was to be expected of the 36-year-old Pierzynski. Because Lucroy is so young and Butler is every bit the star we saw in '12, the odds are on their side over the long haul.
All that said, here's Dewan's list of potential breakout candidates (minimum of 200 regular season at-bats and 40 spring training at-bats)
Hitter/Team, Spring Career Difference
Brandon Belt, Giants .906 .418 .488
Justin Smoak, Mariners .811 .377 .434
Howard Kendrick, Angels .833 .428 .405
Ryan Raburn, Indians .833 .430 .403
Nick Hundley, Padres .773 .390 .383
Rick Ankiel, Astros .780 .422 .358
Michael Morse, Mariners .824 .492 .332
Mike Moustakas, Royals .726 .395 .331
Brent Lillibridge, Cubs .675 .350 .325
Mark DeRosa, Blue Jays .725 .412 .313
Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians .725 .421 .304
Kevin Youkilis, Yankees .778 .482 .296
Domonic Brown, Phillies .675 .388 .287
Mitch Moreland, Rangers .727 .441 .286
Wilin Rosario, Rockies .805 .522 .283
Dexter Fowler, Rockies .705 .427 .278
Alex Gordon, Royals .714 .439 .275
Craig Gentry, Rangers .618 .355 .263
Gaby Sanchez, Pirates .683 .420 .263
Bryce Harper, Nationals .730 .477 .253
Juan Francisco, Braves .692 .440 .252
Elvis Andrus, Rangers .604 .353 .251
Brandon Crawford, Giants .577 .333 .244
Steve Clevenger, Cubs .523 .281 .242
Melky Cabrera, Blue Jays .655 .414 .241
Lucas Duda, Mets .660 .427 .233
Raul Ibanez, Mariners .700 .470 .230
Luis Cruz, Dodgers .600 .371 .229
Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks .625 .400 .225
Freddie Freeman, Braves .671 .449 .222
Peter Bourjos, Angels .614 .402 .212
Ben Francisco, Yankees .636 .425 .211
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks .636 .432 .204
Lorenzo Cain, Royals .615 .412 .203
I'll bet my favorite trumpet, Otis Mahorn, that Raul Ibanez doesn't out-perform his stellar career at age 57 (or whatever.) Conversely, it would be quite the upset if Bryce Harper failed to make a quantum leap following his Rookie of the Year season.
And finally, whatever magic beans Luis Cruz was planting in the Spring lost their powers once the season began. Even his weak lifetime .371 SLG is going to be a stretch after losing his infield job with the Dodgers because of 71 plate appearances with a hollow bat. A walk and six singles later (in 71 trips to the plate! That's .090/.114/.090 for you slash stat buffs) he's on the bench behind substitutes who couldn't make the Marlins' roster if you spotted them 10 home runs.
If Dewan's research is borne out over time, we'll have another weapon in our growing arsenal of analysis. We'll keep an eye on this group.
15 May 2013
The Cubs Win the Pennant! The Cubs Win the Pennant!
In three years, when the Cubs win the NL Central, we'll look back to a little-noticed signing back on Monday as the watershed event.
Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.
In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.
In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.
A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer.
So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.
It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.
With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.
Continuing a trend that has been documented here before, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer locked up future star first baseman Anthony Rizzo for the next seven -- and possibly nine -- years. The $41 million contract provides Rizzo with a big raise over his 2013 salary of $498K, sidesteps four years of arbitration and buys out year one of free agency. It also allows the team to retain Rizzo's services in 2020 and 2021 for $14.5 million each year, a mere pittance by then if Rizzo is even a twinkle of his current potential.
In case you're wondering why the fuss, this is it: The 240-pound Floridian has been a hot prospect since Theo drafted him for the Red Sox, Hoyer traded for him when he worked for the Padres and then again when they joined forces in Chicago.
In his 125 Major League games with the Cubs, Rizzo has vindicated his supporters, hitting .282/.344/.482 and 24 homers -- about a 33 home run pace. The lefty has abused pitchers from both sides, home and away, and in the dog days. And he's just 23.
A decade ago, Rizzo might have elicited yawns. Shake a tree and a slugging first baseman falls out. Pujols, Teixeira, Thome, Helton, Delgado, Morneau, Konerko, Palmeiro and the list went on. Today though, first base is no longer the premium offensive position. After Votto, Gonzalez and Fielder it drops off precipitously to the likes of Ike Davis and Eric Hosmer.
So if he's such a stud, why sign away his future? For reasons we've documented before having to do with the marginal utility of money. Rizzo is now guaranteed $41 million even if he spontaneously combusts tomorrow. The millions he might be leaving on the table mean a lot less to him than the millions he is now guaranteed. Starting today, the Rizzo clan is set for life. Nix the deal and break his leg, and it could all go away. In effect, big league clubs are selling their young stars insurance, and keeping the premium for themselves. In addition, they avoid the psychic pain of arbitration battles.
It's another data point in a growing trend in MLB. Before the season, the D-backs inked Paul Goldschmidt to a similar contract. Allen Craig passed up arbitration and a year of free agency in his new deal with the Cardinals. The Brewers are already thrilled with their investment in catcher Jonathan Lucroy. He delivered 4.1 wins against replacement in their deal's first year (batting .320), recouping their $10 million guarantee, and then some, in the contract's first year.
With Rizzo and fellow 23-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro locked up through 2019, a boatload of money for free agents and a farm system stuffed fat with prospects, the Cubs' future is so bright they'll need sunblock. They're bottom feeders this year, but don't let that fool you. Epstein and Hoyer are building a solid club with creativity and cost-efficiency at Wrigley and they're going to win some pennants before the decade is out.
14 May 2013
Call Off the Season Now
It's May 14. The concept in force remains "small sample size." Yet already, 35 games into the season, logic prevails:
Division Leaders
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
Wild Cards
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Other than the conspicuous absence of the Nationals, would any of this be shocking at year's end? All six division winners made the playoffs last year. So did two of the four Wild Cards. There doesn't appear to be a 2012 Cleveland, 2011 Pittsburgh or 2010 Baltimore here that takes off with a gallop and pulls up lame at the three-quarter pole.
Let's delve deeper. Here's the bottom of the standings:
Last place teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Not a single 2012 playoff team. We like to think of Toronto as a favorite, but the 2012 version lost 89 games and the imports arrived with plenty of downside everywhere but on the payroll.
Someone has to bring up the rear in the AL East.
L.A. will almost certainly switch places with the Padres, who are better equipped for the cellar. As for Chicago, well, let's hope the Blackhawks can parlay the NHL's best record into a Stanley Cup run.
It would be interesting to research how long it takes for Major League team records to coalesce around their natural state. In 2013, it looks like 30 games is about that point.
Division Leaders
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
New York Yankees
Detroit Tigers
Texas Rangers
Wild Cards
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Other than the conspicuous absence of the Nationals, would any of this be shocking at year's end? All six division winners made the playoffs last year. So did two of the four Wild Cards. There doesn't appear to be a 2012 Cleveland, 2011 Pittsburgh or 2010 Baltimore here that takes off with a gallop and pulls up lame at the three-quarter pole.
Let's delve deeper. Here's the bottom of the standings:
Last place teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Not a single 2012 playoff team. We like to think of Toronto as a favorite, but the 2012 version lost 89 games and the imports arrived with plenty of downside everywhere but on the payroll.
Someone has to bring up the rear in the AL East.
L.A. will almost certainly switch places with the Padres, who are better equipped for the cellar. As for Chicago, well, let's hope the Blackhawks can parlay the NHL's best record into a Stanley Cup run.
It would be interesting to research how long it takes for Major League team records to coalesce around their natural state. In 2013, it looks like 30 games is about that point.
13 May 2013
A Comeback of Historic Proportions?
"Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then."
"We are what our record says we are."
Depending on whether you put more stock in visually impaired rodent luck or outcomes-based analysis, Scott Kazmir is either experiencing the proverbial dead cat bounce or an historic comeback of the Mark Sanford variety.
Either way, the cranks who belittled his Spring Training revival can now lick the chicken ova off their mugs. Yum, yum.
Just to recap, the 15th pick in the 2002 draft (by the Mets), Kazmir electrified fans in Tampa by mowing down batters from '05-'09, pacing the junior circuit in K's in '07. But by age 25 in 2009, his K rate tanked as his fastball lost its bite . . . and then even its bark. Once sitting consistently mid-90s, it bottomed at 86 while flailing in the bigs and face-planting against 19-year-olds in an Independent League over the last three years.
But a funny thing may have happened while Kaz rode the pines the last two calendar years. His tired arm or crooked mechanics or serotonin imbalance (or whatever) cleared itself up and he came to Indians camp as a non-roster invitee throwing bee-bees again. Based on three starts of dubious predictive value, Kazmir made the big club and got pressed into starting service. In early April, that appeared to speak volumes more about Cleveland's rotation than about Scott Kazmir's rejuvenation.
And then he strained a ribcage and began the season on the DL, bringing wry smiles to the faces of cynics such as H.L. Mencken and my own personal self. Nothing changed when he finally returned to the team, surrendering six runs in a three-inning inauguration against the Minor League Astros. Had he called it a career right there no one could have blamed him.
Even after fanning 11 in 11 innings over his next two starts -- a pair of two-run performances against bottom dwellers KC and Minnesota -- a healthy dose of doubt was in order. He'd been pitching on six days rest against lower-tier offenses and still sported a 6.28 ERA with four home runs against him in 14 frames.
And then this past week, on normal rest, Kazmir threw 103 pitches past, through and around the Oakland A's, whiffing 10 without walking anyone over six innings. It was his first no-walk effort in 36 months. It was his first double-digit strikeout game in 45 months. Other than one solo homer, Oakland couldn't touch his 96 mph fastball.
So now we've come to the dead cat bounce. Is this -- pardon the mixed fauna metaphors -- Scott Kazmir's swan song before the clock strikes midnight on his Major League career or has he re-gained the strength/mechanics/outlook to master the best hitters in the world?
A pitcher who inflates his fastball velocity by 10 mph is somewhere in the vicinity of unprecedented. On the other hand, mediocre results over 20 innings that consumed 387 pitches hardly bodes well. There are still serious questions about Kazmir's durability, both over a season and within games, even if he continues to short out radar guns.
"Trust by verify," say Russians, who are understandably reluctant to commit based on small sample sizes. We'll be watching Scott Kazmir and wishing him the best because that would be a great story. In the meantime, his record says he's a 4.86 ERA pitcher.
"We are what our record says we are."
Depending on whether you put more stock in visually impaired rodent luck or outcomes-based analysis, Scott Kazmir is either experiencing the proverbial dead cat bounce or an historic comeback of the Mark Sanford variety.
Either way, the cranks who belittled his Spring Training revival can now lick the chicken ova off their mugs. Yum, yum.
Just to recap, the 15th pick in the 2002 draft (by the Mets), Kazmir electrified fans in Tampa by mowing down batters from '05-'09, pacing the junior circuit in K's in '07. But by age 25 in 2009, his K rate tanked as his fastball lost its bite . . . and then even its bark. Once sitting consistently mid-90s, it bottomed at 86 while flailing in the bigs and face-planting against 19-year-olds in an Independent League over the last three years.But a funny thing may have happened while Kaz rode the pines the last two calendar years. His tired arm or crooked mechanics or serotonin imbalance (or whatever) cleared itself up and he came to Indians camp as a non-roster invitee throwing bee-bees again. Based on three starts of dubious predictive value, Kazmir made the big club and got pressed into starting service. In early April, that appeared to speak volumes more about Cleveland's rotation than about Scott Kazmir's rejuvenation.
And then he strained a ribcage and began the season on the DL, bringing wry smiles to the faces of cynics such as H.L. Mencken and my own personal self. Nothing changed when he finally returned to the team, surrendering six runs in a three-inning inauguration against the Minor League Astros. Had he called it a career right there no one could have blamed him.
Even after fanning 11 in 11 innings over his next two starts -- a pair of two-run performances against bottom dwellers KC and Minnesota -- a healthy dose of doubt was in order. He'd been pitching on six days rest against lower-tier offenses and still sported a 6.28 ERA with four home runs against him in 14 frames.
And then this past week, on normal rest, Kazmir threw 103 pitches past, through and around the Oakland A's, whiffing 10 without walking anyone over six innings. It was his first no-walk effort in 36 months. It was his first double-digit strikeout game in 45 months. Other than one solo homer, Oakland couldn't touch his 96 mph fastball.
So now we've come to the dead cat bounce. Is this -- pardon the mixed fauna metaphors -- Scott Kazmir's swan song before the clock strikes midnight on his Major League career or has he re-gained the strength/mechanics/outlook to master the best hitters in the world?
A pitcher who inflates his fastball velocity by 10 mph is somewhere in the vicinity of unprecedented. On the other hand, mediocre results over 20 innings that consumed 387 pitches hardly bodes well. There are still serious questions about Kazmir's durability, both over a season and within games, even if he continues to short out radar guns.
"Trust by verify," say Russians, who are understandably reluctant to commit based on small sample sizes. We'll be watching Scott Kazmir and wishing him the best because that would be a great story. In the meantime, his record says he's a 4.86 ERA pitcher.
12 May 2013
A Core Without a Corps
These guys all play on the same team, in a home stadium that had a messy divorce with offense long ago:
Left fielder .301/.368/.496, six steals
Catcher .271/.381/.395, as many walks as strikeouts
First baseman .343/.398/.500
Utility infielder .361/.451/.475, plays more than half-time
Second baseman .343/.363/.452
Many believe they have the best pitching staff in the league. First place right?
Well, they're the $230 million L. A. Dodgers, 13-20 and last in the NL West. They've surrendered the third most runs in the NL. Their offense is even worse.
With that lineup? How?
You can't blame Carl Crawford, AJ Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and Mark Ellis (the lines above, respectively). The trade with Boston is paying off.
But that's the whole shooting match. Superstar center-fielder Matt Kemp has one home run. His pasture-mate, Andre Ethier, is hitting an empty .243. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf and his backup, Justin Sellers, is hitting .191 with two extra base hits.
And those players are All-World compared to third baseman Luis Cruz. .090/.114/.090 with one walk and 12 strikeouts. His backup is Juan Uribe, .220/.371/.340. Uribe is getting on base -- 12 walks in 62 plate appearances, but he has no speed and can't carry Cruz's glove.
The result: The second fewest runs in the NL. The Dodgers are hitting .213 with runners in scoring position. AJ Ellis has been on base 43 times this year and scored five runs. The Dodgers don't leave the yard much, except to drive home after a loss.
With Zack Greinke nursing his WWE injury and Chad Billingsley joining the New Elbow Tendon Club, nine hurlers have earned a start from manager Don Mattingly. Five of them have failed to hold opponents to under five runs-a-game. Closer Brandon League is getting lit up. The bullpen has blown five of 14 save opportunities.
And Josh Beckett; -- 0-4, 5.14 -- appears to be as fried as the chicken he loves.
Los Angeles can certainly blame the injury bug -- Greinke, Billingsley, Ramirez, Ted Lilly and others have been hurt. Kemp is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. But they'll have injuries all season, as will everyone, and without a bench, they won't survive.
Magic Johnson and Dodger management threw around the greenbacks to build this team, but they forgot to invest in a bench. Other than Punto and maybe Skip Schumaker, they really don't have the supporting cast to fill in for extended stretches while regulars inevitably hobble off the field. Money can be a powerful weapon if used strategically, but if all it does is overpay a small coterie of players, this is the unsurprising result.
The stars and scrubs approach has never fared well over 162 games.
There's still plenty of time in the eminently winnable NL West to capture the magic and make a run. But someone besides those guys at the top is going to have to step up. Mark Ellis isn't going to hit .343 all year.
Left fielder .301/.368/.496, six steals
Catcher .271/.381/.395, as many walks as strikeouts
First baseman .343/.398/.500
Utility infielder .361/.451/.475, plays more than half-time
Second baseman .343/.363/.452
Many believe they have the best pitching staff in the league. First place right?
Well, they're the $230 million L. A. Dodgers, 13-20 and last in the NL West. They've surrendered the third most runs in the NL. Their offense is even worse.
With that lineup? How?
You can't blame Carl Crawford, AJ Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto and Mark Ellis (the lines above, respectively). The trade with Boston is paying off.
But that's the whole shooting match. Superstar center-fielder Matt Kemp has one home run. His pasture-mate, Andre Ethier, is hitting an empty .243. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is on the shelf and his backup, Justin Sellers, is hitting .191 with two extra base hits.
And those players are All-World compared to third baseman Luis Cruz. .090/.114/.090 with one walk and 12 strikeouts. His backup is Juan Uribe, .220/.371/.340. Uribe is getting on base -- 12 walks in 62 plate appearances, but he has no speed and can't carry Cruz's glove.
The result: The second fewest runs in the NL. The Dodgers are hitting .213 with runners in scoring position. AJ Ellis has been on base 43 times this year and scored five runs. The Dodgers don't leave the yard much, except to drive home after a loss.
With Zack Greinke nursing his WWE injury and Chad Billingsley joining the New Elbow Tendon Club, nine hurlers have earned a start from manager Don Mattingly. Five of them have failed to hold opponents to under five runs-a-game. Closer Brandon League is getting lit up. The bullpen has blown five of 14 save opportunities.
And Josh Beckett; -- 0-4, 5.14 -- appears to be as fried as the chicken he loves.
Los Angeles can certainly blame the injury bug -- Greinke, Billingsley, Ramirez, Ted Lilly and others have been hurt. Kemp is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. But they'll have injuries all season, as will everyone, and without a bench, they won't survive.
Magic Johnson and Dodger management threw around the greenbacks to build this team, but they forgot to invest in a bench. Other than Punto and maybe Skip Schumaker, they really don't have the supporting cast to fill in for extended stretches while regulars inevitably hobble off the field. Money can be a powerful weapon if used strategically, but if all it does is overpay a small coterie of players, this is the unsurprising result.
The stars and scrubs approach has never fared well over 162 games.
There's still plenty of time in the eminently winnable NL West to capture the magic and make a run. But someone besides those guys at the top is going to have to step up. Mark Ellis isn't going to hit .343 all year.
11 May 2013
The Bronx: The Place to Be
Had you examined the Washington Nationals a week ago, when they were scuffling with the .500 monster, you'd have seen a team of all upside. Lady Luck hadn't been kind to Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, and Dan Haren's sub-replacement activities screamed "$13 million wasted!"
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
The non-Bryce division of the offense had been flirting with Mario Mendoza and poked just 11 more homers than their left-fielder alone. Expensive first baseman re-signee, Adam LaRoche had been out-hit by some pitchers. Second base had been a black hole of offense.
And yet, after four wins in five games, the Nats have moved within hailing distance of first place. A few switch-flips later -- LaRoche is a notoriously streaky batter -- and Washington, no longer first in war or peace, can again be first in the NL East.
As for the AL East, Las Vegas bookmakers are hiding under their desks. In a year in which the Red Sox were rebuilding, the Yankees were taking a luxury cap-induced hiatus and the Orioles were falling to earth -- they weren't! The three teams are tied for the top of the toughest division with .600+ winning percentages.
Boston and Baltimore are pounding the ball -- can you say Daniel Nava? Chris Davis? And the Yankees, well.
After Robby Cano, New York's top offensive performers are all placeholders -- Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Francisco Cervelli, Ichiro Suzuki. Their starting staff, with the sole exception of Ivan Nova, is clamping down on opponents while the Sandman warms up his Hall of Fame arm. Having lost a virtual All-Star team to the DL, New York is somehow still exercising its Manifest Destiny to the top of the standings.
The Bombers lost 164 home runs to free agency and injury in the off-season and yet still lead the AL in that category. Fulltime DH Travis Hafner, one of the many reclamation projects on the roster, deserves some of the credit. Pronk is the most dramatic example of once-productive players who fell into the Yankees' arms and have delivered this season.
A superstar slugger for three years mid-decade, Hafner has struggled to stay on the field since 2008. This year, at age 36 but without a defensive position to concern him, he has so far avoided injury and pounded out a .284/.408/.568 performance for the Yankees.
It's a similar story for 34-year-old Vernon Wells. With his massive salary off-loaded to Toronto and Anaheim, New York is getting the performance. Filling in for a host of injured outfielders, Wells has delivered with the glove and the wood, hitting .294/.346/.504.
Even better, these senior citizens won't have to over-perform all season. When Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira return, Joe Girardi will send Hafner, Wells and their compadres back to spot duty.
If it can ever be a good time to live in the Bronx, now is the time. Come the All-Star break, the home nine will improve dramatically. Disappointing Tampa and Toronto can be expected to do the same, but they have ground to make up. Boston and Baltimore, who are square with the Yankees now, will need to make trading deadline moves to keep up.
Yep, the Bronx: it's the place to be.
10 May 2013
What's Changed In Two Weeks?
One advantage of being disengaged for two weeks is that sport takes shape in more coherent form than in the normal day-to-day rhythms. While I've been gone, the Blue Jays have flown the coop, Anaheim has taken up the Astro challenge, Washington seems to have righted itself and the AL East has coalesced into an unlikely dogfight.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
Remember when this was the window of opportunity to beat New York and Boston?
It might still be so, and the Angels and Toronto might still square off for a World Series berth. We're not even a fifth of the way through the season -- three games' worth in NFL calculus. But another 10 games from now, when a quarter of a team's record is in the books, would be a good time to begin worrying.
Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out that seven of the last 10 AL East bottom feeders after 32 games finished the season in last place -- and none in playoff contention. That bodes ill for a 13-23 Blue Jay contingent that's 8.5 games out of third place and fourth worst in baseball in preventing runs.
What's particularly galling for Toronto fans is that they don't have a rash of injuries or hard scheduling to blame for the rough patch. Among significant contributors -- or those expected to be -- only Jose Reyes is hurt, and that had to be built into the equation anyway. The newly refurbished starting pitching has gone over like a banana eggplant sandwich and the offense hasn't tasted much better. (Though it is worth mentioning that the team has stolen bases at an admirable 76% clip.)
In all, the only hope that Toronto makes a go of it is that they just plain start playing better. The track record among the gentlemen they'll be counting on is pretty mixed.
It's a similar issue for the Angels, except we have more confidence in the personnel. Albert Pujols won't ever again be the greatest player on the planet, but he'll hit. Josh Hamilton will still strike out too much, but he'll figure out how to homer against someone other than the Astros and won't still be sporting a .267 OBP at year's end (unless he breaks his femur tonight.) Jered Weaver will return from the DL. Joe Blanton (0-6, 5.66) -- okay, a guy who surrenders 14 hits a game and whiffs just five, he's over.
The point is, the 12-22 Angels have played like poop, but we're pretty sure they're not poop. Whether, on the smell meter, they're scented perfume or liverwurst, and whether they can catch the Rangers (or the Wild Card contenders) is the question.
Tomorrow we'll examine the other two-week trends.
01 May 2013
Mr. Underrated
If you were going to craft an underrated position player in baseball you'd put him on a bad team in a small market and subject him to a home stadium that's antagonistic towards offense.
The player wouldn't hit .300 and he wouldn't pound a lot of homers. But he'd get on base at a nice clip and accumulate a lot of doubles and triples. He wouldn't stock up on RBIs, in part because his teammates don't get on base ahead of him.
Mr. Underrated would be a good defensive player, but not the flashy type who makes regular Web Gem appearances. He wouldn't tweet, or if he did, he wouldn't say anything notably stupid.
The same speed, good instincts and game knowledge responsible for his good defense would also inform his baserunning. He wouldn't hang gaudy steal numbers, but his SB percentage would be excellent and he would run the bases well and rarely make a mistake on the basepaths.
It wouldn't hurt his underrated status if he was highly touted but hadn't quite lived up to his billing. If a teammate has eclipsed him, so much the better.
That's the profile of Alex Gordon, the Royals' seventh-year pro. Now staffing left field, Gordon has hit .301/.372/.481 in tough Kaufman Stadium since 2011. He's gone yard just 39 times in that period but supplemented that with 102 doubles and 11 triples. A former third baseman, Gordon grades well above average with the glove and on the basepaths despite very modest stolen base numbers.
By wins above replacement, Gordon has been the eighth most valuable position player in the majors over the last 162 games, keeping company with Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. You likely hadn't placed Gordon in that rarefied air. And that's just the point.
Gordon will have to clear the fences twice as often or win a couple of batting titles to raise his profile, and to that end he's hitting .345 so far this year. But even if he doesn't achieve either, staying healthy and continuing his broad-based excellence will keep him among the game's elite and help Kansas City make a run or two at the playoffs over the next few seasons.
The player wouldn't hit .300 and he wouldn't pound a lot of homers. But he'd get on base at a nice clip and accumulate a lot of doubles and triples. He wouldn't stock up on RBIs, in part because his teammates don't get on base ahead of him.
Mr. Underrated would be a good defensive player, but not the flashy type who makes regular Web Gem appearances. He wouldn't tweet, or if he did, he wouldn't say anything notably stupid.
The same speed, good instincts and game knowledge responsible for his good defense would also inform his baserunning. He wouldn't hang gaudy steal numbers, but his SB percentage would be excellent and he would run the bases well and rarely make a mistake on the basepaths.
It wouldn't hurt his underrated status if he was highly touted but hadn't quite lived up to his billing. If a teammate has eclipsed him, so much the better.
That's the profile of Alex Gordon, the Royals' seventh-year pro. Now staffing left field, Gordon has hit .301/.372/.481 in tough Kaufman Stadium since 2011. He's gone yard just 39 times in that period but supplemented that with 102 doubles and 11 triples. A former third baseman, Gordon grades well above average with the glove and on the basepaths despite very modest stolen base numbers.
By wins above replacement, Gordon has been the eighth most valuable position player in the majors over the last 162 games, keeping company with Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. You likely hadn't placed Gordon in that rarefied air. And that's just the point.
Gordon will have to clear the fences twice as often or win a couple of batting titles to raise his profile, and to that end he's hitting .345 so far this year. But even if he doesn't achieve either, staying healthy and continuing his broad-based excellence will keep him among the game's elite and help Kansas City make a run or two at the playoffs over the next few seasons.
29 April 2013
That Sinking Feeling On Lake Ontario
The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are off to a 9-17 start after a demoralizing sweep at the hands of the Yankees' B squad. They're 9.5 games out of first and have the worst record among Major League teams in the American League. (That excludes the Astros.) They've been outscored 130-95.
It must feel like deja vu for the former Miami Marlins now populating the Blue Jay lineup. After big splash signings before last season, the Marlins turned their gaudy new stadium into a funeral home by crashing into last place and staying there.
It's worth examining whether the imports are the problem or whether the stalwarts from last season's 73-89 team are failing. The answer won't surprise you: it's been a team effort.
Anchoring Toronto last season were slugging right fielder Jose Bautista, breakout first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitcher Brandon Morrow.
Encarnacion posted an anomalous .280/.384/.557 with 42 home runs last season, 52% better than average. Bautista smashed 27 homers in half a season while battling a broken wrist. Morrow paced the staff with a 10-7, 2.96 mark in 21 starts.
To that the Jays added R.A. Dickey, the NL Cy Young; two Marlin signees, shortstop Jose Reyes and innings eater Mark Buehrle; and rehabbing Marlin star hurler Josh Johnson; plus drug-fueled Melky Cabrera and infielders Macier Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio.
None of those above-named has delivered in Ontario. Reyes exploded out of the gate with a .476 on base percentage before spraining his way to a familiar spot on the 60-day disabled list. The rest of the everyday players have failed to reach base safely even 32% of the time, though Bautista and Encarnacion are slugging. Typical is Cabrera, whose sudden leap to competence in 2011 and 2012 now seem to owe a debt of gratitude to chemistry. At .250/.303/.300, the Melk Man has achieved an OPS 303 points lower than last year's.
On the hill, Dickey's inconsistent knuckler isn't fooling American League batters, yet at 2-3, 4.66, a far cry from his 2012 domination, he's the ace of those expected to contribute by a country kilometre. Morrow, Johnson and Buehrle are 1-4, 6.12 in the early going.
The Jays start the week with a three-game home set against the first-place Red Sox that offers an opportunity to slice that deficit. Losing two or more in the Rogers Centre will drop them 10+ games behind and set tongues wagging. It's ridiculously early yet, of course, but this is not a division in which 10-game holes are easily scaled.
This Bryce Harper Guy Is Pretty Good
In his first 162 games, Bryce Harper, now a grizzled veteran of 20, has been one of the 10 best everyday players in the majors.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
He's soon to eclipse the record for home runs before age 21, currently held by Mel Ott. See the whole Fangraphs article.
28 April 2013
This, That and the Other
Ken "Hawk" Harrelson's nine-year vagabond MLB career included a third-place MVP finish in 1968 and a fair amount of part-time, above-average offense. Hawk was an amusing blowhard when he played and he's maintained that record as the Chicago White Sox color analyst.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
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The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
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The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
Harrelson is a card-carrying member of the Tantrum Club whose members stick their fingers in their ears and moan through rolled tongues whenever new analysis explodes their deeply-held mythology. In fact, Harrelson might even be president of this club.
Brian Kenny is a saber-wise host on the MLB network who has educated nearly as many people about baseball as Harrelson has stupefied. Kenny brought Harrelson on his show last week and allowed him an opportunity to explain his ideas, which is another way of saying he provided Hawk enough rope to hang himself.
Harrelson eschews illuminating statistics based on actual research in favor of his own unquantifiable measure -- the will to win. During his rant, he made a long series of provably false claims and if you need to have the evidence provided, you've probably stumbled on the wrong site. Thanks anyway for visiting.
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The truncated NHL season has come to a merciful end and now half the teams start all over with three more months of playoffs. Last season, the L.A. Kings, the last team into the playoffs with more losses than wins, swept through their higher-seeded opponents en route to the Stanley Cup.
When it comes to winning the championship, the regular season is so utterly irrelevant that every contender ought to be installed in Las Vegas as a 15-1 shot.
There are three teams in this year's tournament that have lost as many games as they've won -- Detroit, Ottawa and the Islanders, but you'd never know it from the standings. In an effort to obfuscate how weak the lower-tier playoff contenders are, the NHL calls overtime losses "ties" but overtime victories "wins." As a result, the standings suggest that the Red Wings are 24-16-8 when in fact they won 24 (probably some of them in overtime) and lost 24.
When you have to resort to trickery to validate your product, perhaps you need a new product. Hockey is a spectacular product; the NHL is a disaster.
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Now that the Lakers have proved to be pretenders not just in the regular season but in the playoffs as well, sports talk radio has swiveled its collective head to the other coast. "Next," (after more ads than the Super Bowl) "can the Knicks beat the Heat?"
No.
Now what do we talk about?
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The extraordinarily entertaining and intriguing NFL draft features a handful of encyclopedic minds offering instant critiques like old testament pronouncements about each pick. They never mention the one item that would be particularly illuminating: their own track record.
You heard a lot of analysis of Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel and the other QBs, including definitive statements about how they were taken too high or low. Some of the comparisons invoked the names Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.
How many of these football sachems were calling for teams to draft Wilson and Kaepernick? How many of them even thought Wilson and Kaepernick would start a game in their first two years, much less lead their teams into the playoffs?
Yeah, I thought so.
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Here's another NFL draft head scratcher: teams have been criticized for choosing a player in the right round, but not with the right pick. For example, the team with the ninth pick selects the best player at a position they need who is rated the 20th best player. "He's not a #9 pick," they say.
But the team isn't picking 20th; they're picking ninth. And presumably no one with the next 10 selections will trade with them. So they take the guy they want with the pick they have. If selecting that player will make the team better, isn't that the right choice? It seems like a silly criticism to me.
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The first 25 games of a season are too small a sample to draw conclusions from scratch. For example, the Rockies are 15-9, but we don't know whether they're that good, they're just on a hot streak or some gust of luck has blown their way. (Actually we do know that good scheduling has been at least partly responsible for Colorado's success. They're 1-5 against the Braves and Giants and 6-0 against the sad-sack Padres. Plus, they swept a three-game set against the Mets -- at home in the snow.)
On the other hand, we can learn a lot about things we already thought we knew. Here are four last place teams, with a combined record of 29-65: Houston, Miami, the Cubs and San Diego. It's not too early to draw conclusions about these collections. We thought they would stink and they have delivered in spades.
26 April 2013
Ladies and Gentlemen: Your Houami Marstros
If all the girls who attended the Yale prom were laid end to end, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
-- Dorothy Parker
And suppose you laid the rosters of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins end-to-end. What would Dorothy Parker make of their WAR?
The answer resides in the "two wrongs don't make a right" range. In this case, two minor league teams don't make a major league squad, even with 6'5" Giancarlo Stanton swatting big flies and 5'6" Jose Altuve scampering around the basepaths. Where some clubs are rebuilding, these two have been condemned, faced demolition and are now empty lots.
I decided to conduct a little thought experiment -- the kind that got Albert Einstein a Nobel Prize -- by combining the two hapless franchises and examining the results.
There is no spoiler alert here: you already know that nothing plus nothing is still nothing. Besides the exciting Altuve, Houston's best players are a 34-year-old outfielder (Rick Ankiel) who got cut last year after 171 plate appearances in Washington, a 35-year-old first baseman (Carlos Pena) who hasn't hit above .227 in five years, and a fourth starter (Bud Norris) with a 4.41 lifetime ERA. Center fielder Justin Maxwell, who swatted 18 homers in half a season last year, might be considered a prospect, though his 114 strikeouts give pause.
And the Astros could win a best-of-seven series against Miami in three games.
The entire Marlin roster has managed six home runs in 20 games, the same number as Atlanta's rookie fill-in backstop, Evan Gattis. Miami's clean-up hitter is Placido Polanco, a 37-year-old third baseman who slugged .327 last year. Miami's top performer after Stanton is fourth starter Ricky Nolasco, a Florida lifer with a 22-25, 4.58 record the last two years. For lack of any other on-field asset, the Marlins employ starter Kevin Slowey, whose two previous seasons feature an 0-8, 6.67 line in 2011 and a year of minor league banishment in 2012.
Not only don't the Houami Marstros (or the Miahou Aslins) avoid 100 losses, but if you contracted both franchises, the rest of the baseball would be hard-pressed to find roster spots for more than a handful of players. (This may be a disservice to Justin Ruggiano, Miami's center fielder who batted .312/.374/.535 with 13 dingers in half a season last year. But that's also the sum total of the damage his bat has done in 10 years of professional baseball. He's 31 and has never otherwise posted an OBP above .273.)
I considered salting the formula with the Seattle Mariners team photo, which, absent King Felix, is such an insult to the state of Washington that even Oregon is indignant. But it's not the lack of actual major league baseball talent on the Marinaters' roster that is so pungent, it's the putrefying remains of Jason Bay, Raul Ibanez and Justin Smoak. And Endy Chavez, who once upon a time played in Montreal and has served 36 major league, minor league and winter ball teams in his long horsehide journey.
If you live in a minor league town you'll want to familiarize yourself with the players on these teams. They'll be toiling for your team soon enough.
23 April 2013
We Knew That Bryce Harper Couldn't Keep It Up
Could Bryce Harper really be as good at age 20 as he was at 19? No way. He's better. After picking it up in the power department during last year's second half, he's now pounding NL pitching with seven home runs and .353/.421/.706.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
Mike Trout was poised to swallow a big old helping of regression pie after his age-20 season. After bullying his elders in 2012, he's off to a .291/.337/.481 start with just two jacks. On the other hand, he's swiped three bases without a misstep, bringing his career record to 56 steals, five outs.
Both will be challenged to accumulate the value they did last year, as each has moved over from stints in center field to a more or less full-time gig in left.
It's too early to tell exactly what the contours of their season will be. But if you thought 2012 was just a voting-age fluke for these two, well, OPS of 1127 and 818 say otherwise.
21 April 2013
A Tale of Two Sluggers
It was the best of starts. It was the worst of starts. Two all-or-nothing sluggers are providing their teams with a bit of all and a bit of nothing, and the contrast is instructive.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
Mark Reynolds is now donning Indian garb, swinging his Three True Outcomes stick in Cleveland. Reynolds is the owner of three 204+ strikeout seasons, four 74+ walk seasons and three 32+ home run seasons.
He's following in the gigantic footsteps of 285-pound Adam Dunn, he of 409 lifetime home runs, 2055 whiffs and 1173 free passes. The Big Donkey is coming off a season in which he batted just .204 but gave the White Sox 105 walks and 41 home runs.
For both these players, it's really all about batting average. Even amassing big piles of walks and long balls, they're not real valuable without a few other hits sprinkled in. Dunn's hitting was 12% above average last year; add in his utter lack of baserunning or defensive value and he was pretty close to replacement level despite leaving the yard 41 times. With Reynolds, it's the same equation with a little more defensive and baserunning prowess, but fewer jogs to first.
With one-tenth of the season in the books, Reynolds is getting it done for the Tribe, collecting seven homers and an 1.128 OPS. Dunn is coming undone: three homers and a .454 OPS. One other detail is worth noting:
Mark Reynolds .298/391/.737, 8BB/15K, 7HR
Adam Dunn .108/.159/.295 3BB/26K, 3HR
Dunn is fanning in nearly half his plate appearances, which leaves little opportunity to be productive. Reynolds is making more contact, which leads to more of everything good.
This bodes very poorly for the White Sox, who are paying Dunn for his prodigious Big Fly tendencies accompanied by tolerable batting averages in the .230s. Since he arrived on the South Side in 2011, he's averaged .179/.307/.374, 28 homers, 95 BB and 219 K per 150 games. Not only is Chicago not getting its $15 million worth, it's not getting roster spot value. And the small sample size excuse doesn't work here because it's 289 games of data.
It's very early in 2013 and sluggers are notoriously streaky, so there's hope for Adam Dunn. The tables have turned and now Mark Reynolds is Dunn's guide. But he'll have to dig back to 2010 to turn things around.
20 April 2013
Small Sample Size Fun
If the first three weeks of the season are any indication, the Mets' Matt Harvey is the greatest pitcher of all time. Harvey has dominated opposing batters to the tune of 4-0, 0.93 with 10 hits allowed in 29 innings. He'd won just three games in his entire career before this (10 starts last season.)
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
And Cardinal first baseman Matt Adams is the greatest masher in history. His .524/.565/1.048 slash stats represent seven games of near invincibility. His 23 plate appearances have produced two walks and 11 hits -- three homers, two doubles and six singles. His 1.613 OPS is more than triple the league average.
Justin Upton leads the majors with nine bombs. Upton didn't smack his ninth last season until August, more than 100 games into the season. His .820 slugging percentage with Atlanta nearly doubles last year's work with Arizona. If you average out the Uptons, by adding in the struggles of Justin's older brother and outfield-mate BJ, you get a less Ruthian .235/.314/.568. I suspect the Uptons would cotton to an .882 OPS in 2013; they'd just like it distributed more evenly.
How about Mr. Vottomatic, Cincinatti's Joey Votto? There's nothing flukey about Votto pacing the majors in walks, but 24 free passes in 80 plate appearances is a bit rich for a guy with just one home run. Votto's on base average of .500 dwarfs his pedestrian .377 slugging average. Most players with upside-down OBP-SLG numbers are Slappy McSpeedster types, not MVP candidates.
Baltimore first baseman Chris Davis is a hero or zero kind of guy. Last season he helped the surprising Orioles by blasting 33 jacks, but otherwise fanned 169 times with just 37 walks, a nearly 5-1 ratio. He's improved on both in 15 games so far this year -- 13 Ks and nine BBs -- en route to the AL lead in homers, RBIs and OPS.
With 21 RBI in 16 games, journeyman backstop John Buck leads the majors, despite playing his home games in the offense-suppressant Citi Field surrounded by a lineup of Justin Turner, David Murphy and Ike Davis (and, to be fair, David Wright). Buck brought home 41 runs in seven times as many 2012 plate appearances.
But if power is your thing, Oakland's Coco Crisp is your guy. With five home runs, seven doubles and a triple in just 58 at bats, Crisp leads MLB in extra base hits. That's an extra base hit every 4.5 at bats. In his previous 4400 major league at bats, Crisp crushed 378 extra base hits, about once every 11.5 at bats. Can you say "regression?"
Kurt Suzuki can. The Nationals' catcher entered today's tilt against the Mets at a handsome .321/.444/.714. An oh-fer day left him at .281/.366/.625. Still attractive, but hardly photo-worthy. Two more days like that and he'll be right around his career numbers of .256/.313/.383.
That Ranger fireballer Yu Darvish is mowing down opponents like a landscaping business requires no regression. The Japanese import whiffed 221 in 192 innings last year. He's blowing them away at an even higher rate this year, but it's his consistency that's so noteworthy. In 33 lifetime starts, Darvish has fanned 10 or more one-third of the time.
It's been a painful start for another Far Eastern product, Reds outfielder Shin-soo Choo, but it could get him into the record books. Choo has thrust out an elbow, pointed a thigh, leaned in a sleeve and turned a back to seven hit-by-pitches in just 77 plate appearances. At this rate, a full season of visits to the batters box will obliterate the single season record of 51 HBPs, which has stood for 115 years.
Of course, "at this rate" may be the three dumbest words in the baseball lexicon, just ahead of "good RBI guy." It's still so early that Matt Cain doesn't yet have a win. Let's wait until Craig Kimbrell allows a run -- say June -- before we put any stock in the numbers.
13 April 2013
How Great Is Mariano Rivera?
New analytic tools have led us to understand baseball better and in new ways. They have magnified the under-appreciated and shined light on the game's nuances. They have helped clubs work more efficiently and provided their early adapters with an edge on the competition.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
But they have largely failed one area of the game. And that area's name is Mariano Rivera.
There doesn't seem to be any debate today that Rivera is the greatest reliever of all time. He's the all-time saves leader and possesses the lowest ERA relative to the league ever. He's allowed the fewest baserunners per inning in history. He's been well-nigh unhittable in 96 post-season games. He's spun one pitch into 19 dominant seasons. His worst season, at age 37, was merely excellent.
And yet, the analytic tools don't believe he's a Hall of Famer.
When applied to closers, new analysis asks the following question: where ya been? Appearing for just three outs every other day limits the value of a closer, according to Wins Against Replacement and its ilk, even when his work comes in high-leverage situations. Despite pitching into his 40s, Rivera has just 1200 frames under his belt -- about seven good seasons for a starter. The result is that he has accumulated just 54 wins against replacement, well below the standard for a Hall of Fame pitcher. WAR (or WARP) matters because it's the statistic that comes closest to describing a player's overall value in a single number.
That 54 is from Baseball-Reference, which is the most credible of the three main Sabermetric sites with regard to relievers. Baseball Prospectus pegs it at 31.4 while Fangraphs is at the median of 38.7. The discrepancy has much to do with whether the measurements use underlying data as the true level of performance; i.e., whether Rivera is given the credit (as he should be) for a career-long outlier BABIP or whether that's dismissed as luck.
By comparison, Fangraphs credits Mark Buehrle with 45.7 wins against replacement.
The problem, of course, is that comparing a closer to a starter because they're both pitchers is like comparing the ACLU to the Teamsters because they're both unions.
Misused and under-utilized though they are, closers can still be fairly analyzed by comparing them to each other. That limits the sample more or less to Rivera's contemporaries, but that should be enough, given his dominance.
Rivera's lifetime ERA+ of 205 is about half-again beyond the next best closer in history, Trevor Hoffman. He has the lowest walk rate, by far the highest strikeout rate, by far the fewest blown saves and nearly double the Win Probability Added of any short reliever in history.
ERA+ measures a pitcher's ERA relative to the league at the time. Rivera has limited opponents to 2.22 earned runs per nine innings at a time when the American League is scoring 4.55 against non-Rivera pitchers.
The bottom line is that this is a SABR problem, not a Sandman problem. Clearly, WAR (or WARP) is not designed to handle closers, or at least to compare them to starters. Whatever number of wins Rivera allegedly added to the Yankees with his bat-breaking contributions, they are not being reflected in the sabermetric record.
07 April 2013
WAR on Fox! WAR on Fox!
Mark down this date: April 6, 2013.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
That's the date that Fox's baseball coverage included discussions of OPS and WAR. Hallelujah!
Joe Buck introduced both notions without snark or derision. He explained the acronyms (On-base Plus Slugging and Wins Against Replacement) and discussed how they are calculated.
In the first discussion, Buck demurred a bit, noting that OPS is hard to calculate. But Fox inserted Ken Rosenthal into the discussion to explain that sabermetricans and front offices prefer OPS to batting average and home runs. Fox may have been setting the stage for using OBP stats in the future by having Rosenthal aver that on base percentage is more meaningful than batting average.
This is a true advance. But Fox wasn't done.
With Miguel Cabrera at the plate, Buck introduced the viewer to WAR. He explained how -- and why! -- Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera earned just the fourth highest WAR in MLB last year.
Supported by a Fox graphic listing the top four WARriors in 2012, Buck explained how Cabrera would fare less well because he's only an offensive force. He noted that Mike Trout, first by far on that list with nearly 11 wins against replacement, runs the bases and plays defense.
It's truly a watershed when a major TV network intransigent in its opposition to advanced metrics finally acknowledges that there is a better alternative to batting average and home runs. Kudos to Fox for accepting what has been proven and helping educate average fans.
The next giant leap will occur when Rosenthal explains on air to Buck the other key element of WAR. The three players ahead of Cabrera on the WAR list are center fielder Trout, second baseman Robinson Cano and catcher Buster Posey. Each plays a more difficult position and is being compared to weaker hitters than a third baseman, if that's what you want to call Cabrera.
And the battle will finally be won when they both explain it to the satisfaction of Tim McCarver.
05 April 2013
A Successful Debut
Associated Press: Mariano Rivera made a successful debut as the Yankees defeated Boston 4-2.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
Real Life: Rivera entered the game with a three-run lead. He relinquished a run on a walk and a double before retiring the side. For those of you scoring at home, Red Sox batters hit .250/.400/.500 against him and saddled him with an ERA of 9.00.
But he "earned" a save, so it must have been successful. At least according to dinosaurs like the Association Press.
Thirty-four years and counting.
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