31 July 2009

...And We All Love Andy Pettite

David Ortiz got a standing ovation last night following a report that he flunked the secret 2003 steroid test. They love them some Big Papi in Beantown, but they hate Manny Ramirez, that traitor who forced a trade to the Dodgers.

Ramirez was caught using steroids this year, but was cheered upon his return from suspension by the fans in L.A. who appreciate how he carried the team to the playoffs last year and the best record in baseball this year. However, they despise that cheating bastard Barry Bonds.

Bonds, of course, led the Giants to relevance and a World Series, and set the home run record in San Francisco, where fans defend him to this day. They won't acknowledge Alex Rodriguez if he manages to beat 762 because he's a lying, adulterous, fraud.

Fans in the Bronx don't much cotton to ARod either, but mainly because he hits into double plays in key situations and has the audacity to be a better player than Derek Jeter. Still, when ARod goes yard to win a game in July, the fans are ready to forgive him...at least for the moment. Don't expect New Yorkers to support Mark McGwire's Hall of Fame candidacy, though. Mr. Andro. Mr. I'm not here to talk about the past.

McGwire has to return to St. Louis if he wants some baseball love. The remember him warmly for making the 1998 so memorable and for embracing the Gateway.

At least everyone can agree that they detest Roger Clemens. It's that kind of consistency of logic that makes the steroid discussion so productive.
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30 July 2009

Commish For A Day

Happy 75th birthday to Bud Selig, neither the best nor the worst commissioner in MLB history. People like to pile poo on ol' Bud, but when you consider that he's the owners' minion, he's done a credible job of innovating, keeping up with technology, going global and keeping labor peace -- after a painful apprenticeship. Blaming Selig for steroids is like blaming George W. Bush for September 11, except in reverse. No one saw 9/11 coming; we all knew in their hearts that players were taking steroids.

Suppose you were commissioner for a day and had absolute power. What one thing would you do? Here's my top priority.

I would remind Major League Baseball that, first and foremost, it's in the entertainment business. And sometimes, it's lousy entertainment. No nine-inning game with fewer than 20 runs scored should take more than two-and-a-half hours. The first two hours of a game are fun. The last inning or two can be exciting if the score is close. Beyond that is simply keeping us up late.

So I would pour all my energy into juicing the game's entertainment value. I'd eliminate the parts of games that have high time-consumption-to-entertainment ratios. First culprit: the pitching change. A pitcher who hasn't started an inning may not be removed unless he gives up a run. Sure, it might dis-employ those left-handed specialists, but get us to the good stuff more quickly, particularly in the late innings when the tension, not the boredom, should be mounting.

And if that doesn't have sufficient impact, I'd crack down further by limiting mound visits or even more strictly limiting pitching changes. Because no one goes to a baseball game to watch the manager hold a committee meeting with his hurler, third baseman and catcher. Most of us get more than our share of committee meetings when we're not at the ballpark.

Second, there is no such thing as time out once a player comes to bat. Step in the batter's box and stay there. No practice swings (didn't you get enough of those in the minors?), no batting glove refittings (you make a mint: buy gloves that fit) and no mind games. The fans have trains to catch.

Third, just wave the guy to first on an intentional walk. I've heard the argument that throwing the pitch can lead to infinite possibilities, but in exchange for the excitement of the quadrennial wild pitch, we'll have the excitement of the actual game.

Fourth, limit pitcher pickoff attempts. Stolen bases are exciting; soft tosses to first basemen are not. Crisply played games are exciting. Staying up until 11:45 on a Tuesday is not.

That's my one day as commissioner. What's yours?
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29 July 2009

Relief Is In Sight

Computer's in the shop, delaying posts. But a Mets-Braves game from two weeks ago provided a sufficiently excellent teaching moment to comment on even now.

In a division showdown at The Ted, Johan Santana locked up with Kenshin Kawakami in a 2-0 pitchers' duel through seven frames. Santana came out after 115 crisp pitches in favor of a fresh Pedro Feliciano, who needed all of two pitches to serve up a delicious tater to Chipper Jones. Brian McCann followed with a single and Feliciano was escorted off the mound. Sean Green mixed a walk in between two outs and lefty specialist Pat Misch was brought in to face southbat Ryan Church. Whom he promptly walked.

So to recap, Johan Santana blanked the Braves for seven innings and then it took a trio of relievers to lose the shuout and load the bases .

Mets up 2-1, bottom of the eighth, bases full, two outs in a game they really need to stay in the NL East race. Would you call this a critical moment of the game? Who would you want pitching in that situation, your best reliever (and probably second-best pitcher) or your fifth best reliever, with a lifetime 5.08 ERA in 161 innings?

Jerry Manuel chose the latter because the baseball gods have decreed that a closer pitches the ninth inning, not the eighth. Or perhaps he buys into the absurd myth (I know, I know, that's redundant and repetitive) that a pitcher can get burned out getting four outs, but not three. In any case, Manuel brings in journeyman Brian Stokes and leaves Fransisco Rodriguez warming up in the bullpen with the game on the line.

Stokes fans pinch whiffer Greg Norton to preserve the lead and vindicate Manuel. But then the Mets push three across in the top of the ninth and Manuel is stuck with KRod on the hill with a lead that even the Mets' sixth best reliever could nail down. The end result is that Manuel's groupthink paralysis leaves the game in Brian Stokes's hands and relegates KRod to irrelevance.

Contrast that with Bobby Cox, who for much of the season ditched the prevailing lack of wisdom and alternated his closer and set-up guy depending on the handedness of the opponent batting order. It makes a lot more sense and never put him in a position where his 12th best pitcher was the game's fulcrum. And that kind of flexibility is the difference between a good game manager and a bad one.
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16 July 2009

This Post's Performance Has Been Enhanced

We take you to a random day in real life sports talk radio...

Caller One: Anyone who tests positive for steroids or anything, they're outta the game. Forever.

Host: Yeah, and anyone who ever did steroids -- McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, whoever -- Cooperstown is closed to them. That's it. No Hall of Fame.

Sidekick: Their records gotta be stricken too. Back to 61 for the home run record, and Aaron with 755.

Caller Two: I hate ARod, the cheating bum. He can never be the all-time home run king, I don't care how many the guy hits. Never!

Host: You got that right. Keep the game clean.

Next, we take a stroll down an alternative universe where only thinking people can host and call sports talk radio.

Host: The subject of steroids is a giant Rumsfeldian puzzle: No one really knows what happened in the past. No one really knows what's happening in the present. No one has any idea what's going to happen in the future. It's a quagmire of a swamp of a tar pit.

Caller One: The more I know about PEDs, the more difficult it is to reach definitive conclusions. Should we bar steroid users from the Hall of Fame?

Sidekick: How about other kinds of cheaters? Wasn't Gaylord Perry's nail file a performance enhancer? How about amphetamines during the 70s?

Caller Two: Gentlemen, I feel compelled to point out that amphetamines were freely available to all the players. There was little competitive advantage to taking them.

Host: Thanks Alex from Maryland. You make a good point. But the dilemma for the players then is much the same as it is now. Should I cheat and break the law to keep up with all the other cheaters, or should I abstain from performance enhancement and suffer the consequences on the field? It's the competitive disadvange for non-users that's the real problem.

Caller Two: There's no proof that steroids affect player performance. You have to be able to hit the ball either way.

Host: I've heard that Pollyana argument and it really doesn't hold water. We saw home run numbers spike when players began juicing and trough when baseball began testing. We saw players like Clemens and Bonds play at the very highest level well into their 40's as no one had ever done before. We saw 180-pound players disappear for a winter and return at 215 pounds. If there were really no advantage to taking steroids and their derivatives, players wouldn't be risking ill health, ignominy, and a regimen of painful injections for them.

Caller Three: I'm really conflicted. What do we do with records that seem so tainted and players whose extraordinary performance seems to be at least partly the result of taking illegal drugs?

Sidekick: Jason from Conecticut, if you're conflicted, it shows you're paying attention. It's a dilemma. But one of the beauties of baseball is that its records are self-correcting. That's why the asterisk next to Maris's home run record was unnecessary: fans knew that Ruth had achieved his feat in 154 games. They'll know that Bonds' lifetime home run record was juice-aided and continue to consider Aaron the king. We still think of Babe Ruth as the greatest home run hitter, even though he no longer holds a single home run record.

Host: And as for their place in Cooperstown, I think the same logic holds. Put the steroids controversy on the plaque, or even on the wall above players whose careers spanned the 1994-2005 period. Fans will know. But don't leave maybe the greatest left-fielder and one of the five best pitchers of all time out of the Hall.

Caller Four: I hate A-Fraud. Without steroids he sucks. He isn't half the player Jeter is and he chokes in...CLICK.

Host: Clayton from Spartanburg, I think you dialed the wrong number. You want 1-800-99OnFox. As for Alex Rodriguez, remember that he tested positive in a supposedly anonymous test in which 103 other players rang it up as well. It's unfair that ARod was outed. And don't be so sure about anyone else because their name could be on that list too.

Sidekick: Also remember that baseball now has the most rigorous testing program in major team sports. Players today, including ARod, have peed into more cups than urinals. So we need to give the game and its players the benefit of the doubt today. Not before the testing, then everyone is under suspicion, but since the testing began.

Caller Five:
Guys, I really appreciate your putting this discussion in perspective, but can we move on? All that's in the past. We've got a great season going on right now. Albert Pujols has had the best career start of any player in history. Jamie Moyer and Josh Hamilton are amazing stories. The AL East might be the toughest division ever. The two Central divisions could go down to the wire and produce some surprising results. We could see some blockbuster trades with the deadline looming. And best of all, the level of play is better than it's ever been, and more of it is available to fans nationwide than ever before.

Host: Who is this, Mark McGwire?

Sidekick: I don't want to talk about the past...

Host: But he's got a point. After the break, if I told you the Mets would trade for Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado in the second half of the season, would that make them contenders? Coming up...
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15 July 2009

All-Star Game Observations


Ball One Obama, Strike Fifty Fox


I like Barak Obama as much as the next guy does, but did he really need Fox Sports to protect his pitching reputation? With sports talk shows atwitter about whether he'd throw a strike with his ceremonial first pitch, or even reach home plate, Fox focused its cameras only on the President and never showed where the pitch landed. Even in replay, they refused to broadcast to the nation that its Comander in Chief came up short.

(Ironic, isn't it, that Fox would cover up for a lefty [in every sense of the word] like him.)

Just another piece in the giant jigsaw puzzle of ignorance that is Fox Sports.

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Strike One NPR
Day-after radio headline:
A sacrifice fly by Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones scored the go-ahead run in the 8th inning as the American League defeated the National Leage for the seventh straight year...

A far more accurate accounting that doesn't overstate the importance of an RBI:
Detroit outfielder Curtis Granderson tripled and scored the go-ahead run in the 8th inning and...

That said, get used to hearing Adam Jones's name in connection with All-Star Games.

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A Microcosm
Of course, the real story was Carl Crawford's catch, which single-handedly saved a critical run and Jonathan Papelbon's bacon. How appropriate that defense by a Ray helped win the game when defense is what catapulted the Rays from the basement to the World Series last year.

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The Man
Deserved Better


Remember that great All-Star moment a decade ago when an aging Ted Williams came out to be mobbed by adoring modern-day players? That was great.

MLB dipped its foot in that very same water in St. Louis last night with Stan Musial...and it created no ripple. They needed to be just a bit creative for it to work a second time.

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And She's Yummy Too
Man, Sara Evans can punch out a tune.

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If That's A HBP, I'm A '73 AMC Pacer

Note to umpiring crew and Fox broadcast team: Wrists do no make a "bonk" sound when hit by baseballs. It was clear from the initial view that Tim Lincecum's first-inning pitch to Derek Jeter hit the knob of Jeter's bat. But it was really obvious for all to see on the two replays. Jeter himself made no pretense about being hit.

That the home plate arbiter, with only one obscured view, blew the call is defensible. That Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, with multiple replays at their service, covered it up, is unconscionable. I know that they're racked by orgiastic euphoria everytime Jeter appears, but they should at least open their eyes during the convulsions. It would help them to report the game fairly.

14 July 2009

Statement From Manny Acta

After a couple of years dealing with the Lerner family and their dysfunctional organization, I have fired the Washington Nationals. I'm a good manager and deserve a better lineup than I've been given.

I want to thank the Nationals for their service and wish the Nationals the best in their future endeavors. Though frankly, I don't have very high expectations for them. Their farm system is a disaster and their fan base is already wearing down.

Now that I am a free agent, I'll be entertaining offers from other teams to be their manager. With an excellent reputation among my peers and players, I might even land a skipper's position before the season's out. Almost certainly, I'll be in the playoffs before the Nationals are.

Oh, and make sure you keep those checks coming for the remaining two years of my contract. Man, that's going to feel good.
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11 July 2009

And Yet...

Since last I wrote about the All-Star game, the fans and managers have done everything they could to alter the story. After I complimented their collective sagacity, the fans voted the wrong two players into the game and the managers added their personal favorites to replace injured worthies.

Fans chose 29-year-old Shane Victorino as the last addition to the NL squad over Matt Kemp, among others. Victorino is a dashing young player sporting a park-inflated .851 OPS and 15 steals in 20 attempts. He is unlikely to keep that up, even with Citizens Bank Park on his side.

Matt Kemp is younger, at 25, more dashing, with 19 steals in 23 attempts, and easily out-hitting the Flyin' Hawaiian despite playing in one of the most offense-allergic parks in baseball. His .324 average and .892 OPS are much more in line with expectations. Fangraphs also rates Kemp as twice the fielder Victorino is. But he is seriously lacking a cool nickname.

Then Charlie Manuel added insult to injury by skipping over Kemp to pick his third outfielder, 30-year-old journeyman Jayson Werth, as an injury replacement. Werth's park-inflated .895 OPS and 12 steals in 14 attempts is impressive, and he might very well be the best-looking player in the NL, but he is no Matt Kemp and he is playing well over his head. In short, Charlie Manuel picked his guy over a player who is having a better year at the plate and in the field in a tougher ballpark who is younger and already more accomplished. Sigh.

In the AL, fans chose Brandon Inge at third over Ian Kinsler at second. This is more defensible because Inge is a nice glove man who's made the unusual move from catcher and is swatting big flies so far this campaign. My problem with Inge is that the third baseman missing from the game is not so much him, but this Rodriguez fellow who is merely the second-best ballplayer on the planet. I understand that some look askance at his struggles and missed games, but despite a hip that will still require off-season surgery, ARod has put up a .943 OPS (not counting today's two dingers) and has already blasted 17 homers in 195 at bats. By year's end he will be a top-eight MVP candidate and we'll be struggling to get that pesky Inge off our shoes.

Joe Maddon's contribution to the mayhem was to add the Rangers' exciting outfield phenomenon Nelson Cruz as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter. Cruz is a defensive stud with an Uzi connected to his shoulder and he has blasted 21 homers out of the sandlot in Arlington. He is a sentimental choice, playing his first full season at age 29, which means his career's expiration date can't be far off. Compare that to Kinsler, a fourth-year Ranger on a Hall of Fame track who has but one less homer in the same park, plays a tougher position, and is far less replaceable. If Maddon needed an outfielder, I would have suggested Jermaine Dye. His OPS is 70 points higher than Cruz's and, while not the fielder, he's crushed 20 long balls in a real baseball stadium.

I don't want to belabor the point, because other than snubbing Kemp, and a few odd pitching selections, the rosters really do form a reasonable representation of the best players in the game having the best years. Maddon is one of the three best managers in the game in my opinion and the fans really did try to pick the most deserving players.

So enjoy the game, and even more, enjoy the second half of the season. Man, it's going to be great.
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05 July 2009

Huzzah for the Hoi Polloi

The fans have done it again. Give the great baseball unwashed an opportunity to stuff the All-Star ballot box with their favorite hometown representatives and what do they do? They carefully consider who's having the best year and cast their votes accordingly.

In fact, the fans generally do a better job than the managers of picking the most deserving players. Managers construct safe rosters stuffed fat with moundsman, lest they soil the game again by running out of pitchers. Of course, fans and managers alike show more fidelity to the game than the moronic "every team" rule. It forced Rays manager Joe Maddon to choose Andrew Bailey of the A's for his pitching staff. Bailey has thrown a grand total of 47 innings of Major League ball in his entire life and could be back in the minors by the time the A's play game 162 this year.

Beyond that, it's really hard to find much fault. The fans laid one egg in each league -- with Josh Hamilton in the AL and with Yadier Molina over Brian McCann in the NL. Aside from that, kudos to the masses.

The two squads suffer from rosters of 13 pitchers each. Thirteen! It cost Matt Kemp his outfield spot in the NL and either Ian Kinsler at second in the AL.

I'm casting my 33rd man vote for Kemp over Mark Reynolds of Arizona and Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. He's posted big numbers in a pitchers park, unlike Reynolds, and has demonstrated during his career that he can keep this up all season, unlike Sandoval.

In the AL, Kinsler has tailed off a bit lately, but I've selected him over Toronto DH Adam Lind and Tigers cornerman Brandon Inge. Kinsler has a track record of success, which Lind and Inge don't have, and his .833 OPS (largely on the basis of 19 homers) is more impressive for a second baseman than Lind's .937 OPS, particularly considering Lind doesn't play the field.

That there are myriad players having impressive seasons for whom there is no room on the rosters helps maintain the value of the All-Star designation. On the other hand, several of the selected newbies -- particularly relievers -- will regress to ordinary over the second half. It's the small downside of an All-Star game that serves the sport so well as a moment of pause and reflection on what another great year we're having.
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04 July 2009

Addendum to Previous Piece

Read the previous post before looking here. Then...

I wrote an abridged version of the previous post's critique in the comment section of the Post and Courier website. This is the response I got from the writer:

Spell his name correctly, then criticize.

(His name is spelled Francoeur.)

I think this perfectly illustrates the level of responsibility being taken by mainstream sports media for understanding the changes in baseball. This particular reporter wrote a long piece based on a false premise, and the reason is that he doesn't understand changes in the sport that began 30 years ago. Now, rather than commit himself to updating his reporting skills, he got defensive.

It's really pathetic.
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03 July 2009

Journalistic Malpractice

I often encounter people who defend the baseball media's c0verage of the game. They don't know or understand anything about the gains made over the years in analyzing player and team performance, they don't understand or want to acknowledge the tremendous impact of luck on the game and they're unwilling to let go of the comforting old shibboleths that attend the sport.

I understand this. Change must happen slowly and incrementally. In many ways, this is already happening. OBP and SLG are now regularly displayed in some newspapers, on some game broadcasts and on ballpark scoreboards.

Today I refer you to an article in my hometown paper, the Charleston Post and Courier, about the struggles of Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francouer. Specifically with respect to Francouer, the article makes repeated references to his batting averages, but not a single reference to walks, batting eye, pitch selection or OBP, the very nub of Francouer's problem. This is, quite frankly, journalistic malpractice.

Francouer swings at everything, which leads to a cascade of problems. Pitchers don't have to hit their spots to get him out. He never walks, so his OBP has never topped .336, even when he batted .300. He's making too many outs, particularly for a corner outfielder, even when he hits for average, which he hasn't done in two years.

Many sportswriters, and others who weren't paying attention, were impressed with Francouer's early performance. In his first full year, he batted .260, smacked 29 homers and drove in 103. Add his rifle arm in right field and the cogniscenti were agog. But the seeds of his decline were plainly evident even then. He drew just 23 walks and posted a pathetic .293 OBP. Not only is that unsustainable, pitchers picked up on it and are now exploiting his lack of selectivity. This year, he's neither walking nor hitting for average, leaving him with a line of .248/.282/.346. That's Rey Ordonez territory, but without the shortstop's glove.

The story I reference -- half of which is on the travails of Kelly Johnson -- runs 48 column inches, quotes the GM, manager, hitting coach and both players, and required at least one road trip from Charleston to Atlanta. Yet it utterly fails to inform its readers about Francouer's basic problem because the writer is still using performance analysis tools popular in 1970.

Imagine going to your doctor today and getting 1970s treatment for heart problems or cancer. Many of us would be dead today with that level of care. Or imagine your car mechanic giving a 1970s tune-up to the computer system in your Accord. That's intuitively unnacceptable. Yet sports journalism consumers have not begun demanding that sportswriters stop employing statistics proven innacurate 30 years ago and instead raise their level of performance analysis to standards developed since then and recognized as far superior.
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02 July 2009

An Inconvenient Truth

What would you do with this player?

He brings a tin glove to a low-leverage defensive position. He's hitting .257/.329/.537 this year, or perhaps that was last year (.251 .339 .543). In other words, he has great power but doesn't get safely to the first three bases much.

His top speed is somewhere around Giambi, maybe Thome, and he fans more than a windmill. A left-handed swinger, he eats up righties, but southpaws own him by 54 points of OBP and 104 points of SLG. And all that is accomplished in a home park that smiles on all forms of offense while his teammates fill the bases for him.

Forgive me for suggesting this, but the Phillies ought to consider platooning Ryan Howard.

Howard is still a good hitter and his top-rung power alters the way pitchers approach the lineup. He walks a lot and is on pace to smack 40 homers for the fourth straight time...almost entirely against right-handed pitching.

Against southpaws he makes outs more than 70% of the time. That's Raid for rallies -- kills them dead. Almost certainly the Phils can find someone -- particularly playing in Citizens Bank Park -- who can spot Howard against left-handers and poke an occasional hit or coax a walk episodically. It would make the team a win or two better in a division in which that's likely to be the difference between playing for a flag or finding a fishing hole in October.

Here's the really bad news Phillies fans: the evidence suggests that Howard's on the Mo Vaughn plan, having already peaked at age 26-27. His good looks, ready smile and hale-fellow demeanor will serve him well in his second career, but they won't keep pitchers from walking Chase Utley and busting Howard high and hard if he continues to tail off. Charlie Manuel can delay that if he spells Howard against his lefty-throwing nemeses.
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01 July 2009

What's An All-Star?

As a young Capital reporter in Albany, I thought every statehouse scandal was world-shattering. Today, with many years of perspective, my response to a Bible-thumping governor disappearing for a week of adultery in Argentina is detached bemusement. I've come to recognize that the main purpose of government is entertainment.

Likewise, All-Star elections used to pique my passions. Years later it ceases to rouse me much. (It's worth noting both with respect to government and All-Star games that I continue to vote.) Moreover, my philosophy on who should play has evolved.

In the old days, when social media meant phones in teenagers' rooms, I voted for the player having the best half season, regardless of his pedigree. Over time I realized that many of my choices were regressing to their natural level by year's end while the best players picked it up in the second half.

It seems to me a guy with a lifetime .750 OPS shouldn't start ahead of a veteran star after one good 75-game stretch, and that a superstar shouldn't miss a mid-summer classic because of an injury-marred first-half.

On the other hand, we do put years on the All-Star games. If a top player hits .190 through June, or misses all but 12 games, he probably shouldn't represent his league that particular year.

So when I voted for the 2009 All-Star teams, I chose the players having the best year among those in the top echelon at their position. Sorry Ben Zobrist: get a track record and I'll vote for you. Sorry Manny Ramirez: you can't be an All-Star when you don't play.

My AL All-Star ballot:
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Ian Kinsler
SS Derek Jeter
3B Evan Longoria
C Joe Mauer
OF Torii Hunter
OF Adam Jones
OF Ichiro Suzuki

I picked Youkilis over Mark Texeira, Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera. Your mileage may vary. I valued his defense and on-base ability. Kinsler got the nod over Pedroia, who's not getting it done this year, and Cano, whose power is a figment of Yankee Stadium. If Longoria weren't already a great player, I might have considered ARod. Ichiro needs to hit .370 to be an All-Star, but that's what he's doing. And Adam Jones may not have a long history of Major League success, but he was a prodigy before he became a phenom. Carl Crawford also merits consideration. Anyone who fails to vote for Jeter or Mauer should have his ballot impounded.

My NL All-Star ballot:
1B Albert Pujols
2B Chase Utley
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B David Wright
C Brian McCann
OF Ryan Braun
OF Raul Ibanez
OF Matt Kemp

In the NL, the best players have done us the favor of having the best seasons at their positions. Only in the outfield is there any uncertainty. I couldn't pass on Ibanez despite the likelihood that he's playing over his head. Matt Kemp got the nod in part because women and children should not be exposed to a Braun-Ibanez-Adam Dunn outfield. Brad Hawpe and Justin Upton have gaudy, park-aided numbers, and haven't established their bonafides.

Season your ballot to taste and remember, you don't have to live in Chicago to vote late and often.