30 December 2009

Sittin' On the Dock of the Bay Signing


This is exactly what I recommended the Mets not do -- sign a 31-year-old with bad knees and no glove to patrol Citi's expanse in left and try to match his impressive early production as his body turns to jelly.

It's not that Jason Bay is a wooly mammoth; his career so far (.280/.376/.519) is worth five years and $80 million.  It's just doubtful that Bay in his 30s is going to resemble Bay in his 20s.

Moreover, Citi is the wrong field for  Bay and he's the wrong guy for the Mets. For the pitching staff of Johan Santana and the Seven Dwarfs to improve, it needs better pitchers, not weaker outfielders. Bay's glove will replace Angel Pagan's or Jeff Francoeur's, which is a regressive tax that somewhat offsets the offensive profits. And those profits might be diminished in that homer suppressant of a park.

All that said, this isn't a horrible deal, which Omar Minaya certainly has in him. It ends before Bay's AARP card gets printed and the money isn't crazy talk. Adding him to a rejuvenated Wright, Beltran, and Reyes fattens the lineup, so if the mound corps can't get anyone out, at least the offense has a chance to bail them out.

Still, the Mets are trying to catch the two-time NL champs and they have no idea whether they're bottom-dwellers or contenders. With all the uncertainty in that lineup, it may be that one more good player simply puts them a few more games clear of Washington. I'm not sure that with Bay they can catch the lumberjack-laden lineup in Philly, not to mention improving squads in Miami and Atlanta. That's why I advised the Mets to chill until mid-season, when they can shop, if warranted, at the inevitable fire sale in Cincinatti or Houston or wherever it's going to be this year. It might just be in Queens.

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One note about JBay's career worth mentioning: his 66 steals in 80 attempts is the sign of a very smart baserunner, but it understates the case. In his second year, he made six outs in 10 attempts. Besides that one year, he's earned 62 steals and eight outs. Those kinds of players can never hurt a team.
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27 December 2009

The Most Under-Rated Player In Modern History


It's hard to believe that any player in baseball could be over- or under-rated. Most activities on the field involve one player per team at a time and are measured down to the individual nose hair by the Elias Sports Bureau, whose count is duly recorded for posterity by 73 websites staffed by megageeks who atomize the information and subject it all to regression analysis.

Nonetheless, as long as willfully ignorant sportswriters and sportscasters dominate the debate -- and the Hall of Fame vote -- the wrong measurements will remain valued over those that provide a broader, fuller and more accurate picture of player accomplishments.

The profile of an under-rated player is predictable: Sports media over-rates batting average as opposed to on-base percentage, home runs as opposed to double and triples, RBIs as opposed to runs scored, offense as opposed to defense (except in extraordinary situations), steals as opposed to base stealing percentage, accomplishments in an accommodating ballpark (except in extraordinary situations), being prodigious in a particular facet of the game as opposed to demonstrating broad-based excellence, and maybe most of all, playing on a winning team.  In addition, players whose teammates propel them into spotlight games -- specifically the World Series -- in which to demonstrate their transcendence, often bask in that glow.

(This, of course, applies to everyday players, not pitchers. Pitching wins is probably the single most over-rated statistic in baseball, but that's another story.)

Consequently, the quintessential under-rated player toiled for lousy teams and rarely made the playoffs. He batted in a pitchers' park most of his career, hitting lots of doubles and triples, but not a ton of homers. He was an excellent, but not flashy, fielder who stole bases at a very high rate, hit for a good but not great average while walking like a mall rat, scored a mess of runs but never knocked any in. Our particular fellow may have been the second-best lead-off hitter of all time, but played Scottie Pippen to Rickey Henderson's Michael Jordan.

This player belongs in the Hall of Fame, and not the ancillary wing with Jim Rice, Tony Perez, Phil Rizzuto, Don Drysdale, Don Sutton and Bill Mazeroski. Unfortunately, he'll never sniff Cooperstown without a ride from the Albany airport. Last year, his first year of eligibility, he tallied less than 25% of the Hall vote. It might be his high-water mark.

He's Tim Raines, and he's the most under-rated player of my lifetime. Raines was a superman who could do everything well, under the worst circumstances, but we didn't notice, because we were looking at all the wrong things.

Let me quote the great Joe Posnanski, from an epistle supporting his Hall vote for Raines based on peak and lengevity.

From 1983-87 -- (his) five year peak -- he hit .318/.406/.467 for a 142 OPS+, the same OPS+ that Jim Rice had during his five-year peak. During those five years, he averaged 114 runs scored, 34 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs and 71 stolen bases a year. He led the league in runs scored twice, batting and on-base percentage once, doubles once, stolen bases twice, and could have won three MVP awards. He had 163 win shares in those five years -- an average of 32.6. Bill (James, the mastermind behind Win Shares) says a 30-win share season is an MVP-type year.

That's not even the half of it. Raines' lifetime slugging percentage is higher than Rickey Henderson's and two points lower than Joe Morgan's, despite playing much of his career in that hangar the Expos called home. He's fifth on the stolen base list, but first all-time in success rate (84.7%) among guys with 300 steals.

Baseball writers use an affective-cognitive-conative approach to Hall of Fame voting. First, they use the smell test: did this guy seem like a Hall of Famer. Raines did not, because we were obsessed with batting average (.294 lifetime) and home runs (130 lifetime) during his career. Then they do their due diligence, noting the mediocrity of his triple crown stats (never more than 71 RBIs in a season.) Then they move on to someone else.

On objective measuring systems, Raines is a front row Hall of Famer. On the aforementioned Win Shares scale, which attempts to determine a player's share of responsibility for team wins, he places 40th all time, ahead of the likes of Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, Jackie Robinson, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken, Yogi Berra and Paul Waner. Not too shabby.

I know, I know, you don't care about Win Shares.You don't care about OPS or stolen base percentage or any of those fancy doo-dads like VORP and BABIP. I understand. We've got a recession, two wars and nuclear weapons in Iran and North Korea to worry about, and there's no room in your head for a new understanding of how baseball really works. I get that. And that's why Tim Raines will remain under-rated and on the wrong side of the doors to the Hall of Fame.
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25 December 2009

Menage a Trois and It Was Good for Everyone


The relatively new field of behavioral economics -- think Freakanomics -- has famously determined that gift-giving is an inefficient use of resources because we value what we receive less than our benefactors pay. To simplify the issue, other people generally don't know our preferences as well as we do.

How we value things is a fascinating topic that's served as fodder for innumerable doctoral theses and at least one Cosby show. It certainly loomed large in the recent blockbuster four-way trade that featured two Cy Young winners and a boatload of prospects. And -- Merry Christmas! -- this is an orgy in which everyone can be satisfied.

One thing we know for sure: relative to expectations, the Toronto Blue Jays are doing the jig over their prospect haul for the small sacrifice of a dismal summer wasting Roy Halladay's talent. In acquiring the Phils' untouchable, Kyle Drabek, they replace Halladay today with a potential Halladay long into the future. Drabek appears to be a year away, and even then, the Jays get to play in the low-price sandbox with him for six years.

Two other highly-regarded minor leaguers changed uniforms in the deal, a catcher and an outfielder whom Toronto flipped to Oakland for a third baseman. I know less about minor leaguers than Donald Trump knows about humility, but the experts give the thumbs-up on this trio. Go back two years and compare the empty basket Minnnesota scooped up from the Mets for the last year of Johan Santana's contract. Then remember that Santana was fresher and better-tasting than Halladay. (Santana was 29 and had added about 23 wins to the Twins compared to a replacement over the previous four years; Halladay is 33 and has been 19-20 wins better than a replacement.)

All of this is predicated on the premise that the BJs can't compete with New York, Boston and Tampa Bay in 2010, even with their ace, so they might as well build for the future. They particularly need to offload some onerous contracts, like Vernon Wells', whose salary -- at $126 million over seven years it's half the annual GDP of Guinea Bissau -- is appropriate only in the sense that he possesses all of Guinea Bissau's offensive firepower.

On the other hand, had Toronto known that Halladay would re-up for just three more years after his current year at $20 million per, they might have signed him and forgone all the agita. Halladay will be 37 when the smoke clears, so he'll have to negotiate his next contract just as his value begins tailing off. Why his agent didn't agitate for a fifth, sixth and seventh year will remain a mystery, unless D.B. Cooper comes forward with the answer.

Over on the banks of the Delaware, they've pulled off a coup by winning the Halladay sweepstakes, inking him to an affordable deal, and adding him to a power-packed lineup. Jettisoning Cliff Lee in order to clear space for Halladay and re-stock the farm is a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly given the lesser reviews of the trio that came back from Seattle. Still, the bottom line is this: the double NL champs improved one tick in '10 with Hallday instead of Lee (add in that Halladay is a northpaw in a rotation listing south), five ticks in '11 with Halladay instead of Drabek, et. al., and fewer ticks -- and maybe a few tocks -- as Halladay ages and the prospects mature.

There has been a lot of teeth-gnashing in Philly about why they couldn't reel in more for Cliff Lee than three lights of the West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. Although Lee is signed for just one more year and seems poised to hit the free market, his team will get two picks before the second round if Lee bolts. This smacks of an arbitrary payroll ceiling and a severely limited time frame. Without Lee, the Phils are rock and paper; with him they would have been scissors too.

Whatever is the opposite of "collateral damage," that's the Mariners' role. Cliff Lee landed in their pocket, and all they had to do was clean out the lint. Sure Phillippe Aumont and the other prospects might turn out tres bien, but ...Cliff Lee. You make this move everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. Seattle makes another deal or two like this and they'll clinch the AL West by Memorial Day.

In sum, Toronto did better than expected, Philadelphia improved a hair and Seattle put itself back on the map. That's what economists call synergy.
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23 December 2009

Addendum to Last Post

I made two assertions yesterday that require correction/explanation. First, I said Javier Vazquez is signed for below-market money next year, $9 million. The Associated Press reports he's due $11.5 million, which is more like market value.

Second, the deal includes 19-year-old right-hander Arodys Vizcaino, the Yankees' second-best prospect out of the Dominican who can crank it up to 97. Prospect watchers say he is the real thing following a short-season stint in which he blew away 52 batters in 41 innings. I'll see him in Charleston in 2010 and let you know, but he's at least three years away.

Finally, an omission that isn't inconsequential: Javier Vazquez is in the last year of his contract, which obviously curtailed his trade value some.

None of this changes the premise of the previous piece. Vazquez was worth a lot more than a spare part and some maybes.
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22 December 2009

Not Miguel Cabrera, Mind You

Veteran righty Jason Marquis just signed a $15 million, two-year deal with the Nationals to eat 200 innings with below-average results for an up-and-coming staff. Another veteran rightly, Javier Vazquez, just fetched Melky Cabrera for the Braves in a trade with the Yankees.

What do these two statements have in common? Evidentally, nothing.

In a time when arms are worth their weight in highly-enriched uranium, the Braves parlayed an above-average starter with a below-market contract -- he's due $9 million/year -- for... Melky Cabrera? Is there any commodity more abundant in baseball than fourth outfielders? Didn't they just cut Ryan Church and trade Jeff Francoeur? What, Ryan Spillborghs wasn't available? The Royals wouldn't part with Willie Bloomquist? Gabe Kapler's demanding his own conditioning coach?

This is a miserable waste of a valuable commodity by Atlanta. Frank Wren must have had a plane to catch when he made this deal, because a #3 starter should fetch real value, not the third trombone in the nobody parade.

There were some prospects in this deal, so maybe one of them is the second coming of Joe Dimaggio. Even then, the Braves' plan was supposed to be to flip one of their surplus quality starters for a big banging outfielder who could solidify a gelatin lineup and challenge the Phillies for the division title NOW. What they got was Melky Cabrera, all .274/.336/.416 of him. (That would be the numbers from his best year -- last -- which  marked year five of the "Melky the Future Star" show.) The Braves needed a hitter, not another edition of Garret Anderson.

Here's another data point in the argument against us Yankee haters. Credit Brian Cashman yet again for conning a perfectly respectable GM into giving him a good starter -- Vazquez has been worth 13 wins over the last three years relative to a replacement level pitcher -- in exchange for a replaceable part. This deal had little to do with New York's advantages, monetary or otherwise, and everything to do with Atlanta misjudging the value of a precious commodity.

Melky Cabrera!



19 December 2009

Blue Ribbon Red Tape

When I covered state government as a reporter it was commonly known that if the governor didn't want to address an issue, he appointed a committee to study it. The more accolades he heaped on the committee members, the less likely we'd ever hear from them again.

So what does it tell us that Bud Selig has appointed a Blue Ribbon Panel to study...everything?

And what a distinguished panel it is. It could hardly get more distinguished if it comprised Kennesaw Mountain Landis, Abner Doubleday, Connie Mack and Branch Rickey.. No, really. Because the only difference between my group and Bud's is that my group is actually dead.

Bud's committee is the same retreads as every other Blue Ribbon Panel he's ever appointed. A bunch of old owners, a bunch of old executives, a bunch of old managers, a bunch of old players and representing all of fandom, a bunch of old George Will. Is there anything this illustrious group might conclude that they haven't already whispered into Bud's ear? It'd be like appointing your wife to study your sex appeal.

Among the issues this group will purportedly investigate are:
1. Whether there should be expanded instant replay. So is there an umpire on the committee? Uh, well, no.
2. How to speed up the action. So is there a player on the committee? Uh, no.
3. How to attract more young fans. So is there anyone under 40 on the committee? Uh...
4. What to do with the DH. So is there a union member or executive on the committee?

If Bud wants to know how to improve baseball, he could start by getting a Blue Ribbon Panel to tell him how to appoint members of a Blue Ribbon Panel. Of course, that's not the point, is it? What Bud really wants is cover for doing nothing by pointing out that the best minds are working on the great issues facing the game. Then, when they conclude that the solution to all of baseball's problems is a salary cap (of which, admittedly, I'd be fond) the Commish can simply blame others when it doesn't get done.

It's a great strategy for keeping the status quo. But Bud already knew that. The same distinguished gentlemen of his last Blue Ribbon Committee told him so.
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18 December 2009

The Greatest Trade In Baseball History

The Seattle Mariners today made the greatest trade in baseball history by aquiring Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for Carlos Silva.

"Are you nuts?" says you. "Bradley is a brittle cancer with a $33 million price tag." You are correct, sir (or madam, as the case may be.) But Carlos Silva is to strikeouts what Tiger Woods is to fidelity. Carlos Silva is  a major league pitcher like I am a Mongolian loofah sponge. And Silva is selling for the low, low price of $23 million over two years, plus the $2 million sendoff required for him to slink into oblivion in 2012.

Last year, the 30-year-old righty took the mound for a grand total of eight games. This was a blessing for the Ms, because in the 30 innings he managed to stay upright, opposing hitters uncorked a .324 BA against him and crossed the plate 29 times. Silva earned every bit of his 8.60 ERA, striking out 10 batters, one fewer than he walked. He accomplished this feat in one of the best pitching parks in the AL.

Of course, that was an off-year for him. In '08, Silva limited opposing hitters to a .330 batting average and sported a snazzy 4-15, 6.46 line. In '06, Silva went 11-15, 5.94 for Minnesota and held the league to a .326 batting average. In other words, against Carlos Silva, a utility infielder is Albert Pujols.

It's easy to see why Carlos Silva can't retire major league hitters: he doesn't have major league stuff. Good pitchers whiff a batter an inning. Marginal pitchers fan six per nine. Over his eight-year career, Silva sent 3.78 per nine down on strikes. That stinks like a limburger fart.

In fact, it's worse than that. In his last 100 starts over four years, Silva has been seven losses worse than a replacement level pitcher --  a guy out of triple-A who's getting sent back as soon as Eric Bedard comes off the DL. That is fantasmagorically abysmal. That is Double-A demotion abysmal. But since Silva earns 28.75 times as much as the President of the United States, Mariners brass was loathe to kick him to the curb.

In other words, the Mariners, who receive $6 million of Tom Ricketts' money in the deal, got Carlos Silva to go away for $2 million. What a racket! Milton Bradley could trot out to left field, moon Bill Gates, take the collar, boot the winning hit, flip off the crowd, spew expletives to the media, tip over the post-game spread and spontaneously combust, all in his first game in Seattle and still qualify as a bargain compared to his trade dopleganger. The Mariners swapped Phyllis Diller for Lindsey Lohan. You do the math.

If, instead, Bradley plays 100 games before inevitably getting hurt and hits his lifetime average of .370/.450 while clogging up the DH spot, he'll be worth four more wins than Silva. That ain't chicken scratch for a team that is a bat or two from favorite status in the AL West.

All this is just the capper on a great off-season for Seattle. They were the beneficiaries of the Phils' sudden Cliff Lee allergy and they inked Chone Figgins away from archrival Los Angeles. That creates a formidable rotation fronted by Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Eric Bedard, if healthy. (Granted, that's like saying the Tigers have an outfield that includes Ty Cobb, if alive. But Bedard's due to hit the 150-inning mark one of these decades.) They add Figgins and Bradley to Ichiro and Franklin Guttierez, plus a little pop from Russ Branyan, and suddenly you have a team with great starters, the best defense in the league, and an offense that no longer conjures up images of -- Tinkerbell. Still, I think Seattle is a bopper away from beating the Angels and Rangers.

I'm not sure that big bopper is on the free agent market this year, but since Lee is only signed for one more season, M's GM Jack Zduriencik might be willing to empty the farm for Adrian Gonzalez, whom the Padres have offered for the right prospect haul. In any case, there could be some meaningful games this September at Safeco for the first time since 2001. If that's the case, Pacific Northwest denizens can thank The Greatest Trade In Baseball History for helping make it possible, even if Milton Bradley spends the 2010 season orbiting Pluto.
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17 December 2009

Pre-thinking Analysis

In the neighborhood in which I grew up, populated by a heterogeneous mix of wise guys, it was a rare occurrence indeed to achieve the completion of any sentence that began with an exceedingly stupid premise.

For example, suppose while analyzing the Phillies' decision to trade for Roy Halladay and jettison Cliff Lee, someone on your street were to note that Cliff Lee was a great "post-season pitcher." The vapidity of this statement could not be overlooked or remain unchallenged. Barely would the speaker have reached his sentence's conjunction than the entire assembly would be riding him verbally for his badly-misfiring neurons. Were he to persist, a noogie, wedgie or purple nurple would be in order.

Evidently, street rules are not in force on sports talk radio. All yesterday my radio spat out the knuckleheaded assertion that Philly was giving up a "great post-season pitcher" for one who had not proven himself, as if this were a viable measurement like team winning percentage or doubles. I kept waiting for someone knowledgeable to interject a polite point of information that, well, "post-season pitcher" is a figment of the host's imagination.

To be sure, Cliff Lee has been a lights-out pitcher in the post-season -- that is, in the FIVE PLAYOFF GAMES he has pitched during his six-year career. He's been a lights-out pitcher for most of the past two seasons, when he's posted ERAs of 2.54 and 3.22. Which proves only the following: Cliff Lee is good.

News flash: Roy Halladay's not too shabby either. You might just say he's the mound king of the junior circuit, or was until joining Johan Santana in the NL. In his 12-year career, Halladay has a 3.43 ERA with three times as many strikeouts as walks. If you want to know what kind of "post-season pitcher" Halladay would be, allow me to give you a preview: if he pitched enough innings, he would have about a 3.43 ERA with three times as many strikeout as walks.

Of course there are other variables in the post-season. It always comes at the end of a 162-game schedule, so players who wear out might have less success in the playoffs. The competition tends to improve, so players who feast on the league's bottom-dwellers and hangers-on would tend to scuffle. The weather begins to turn cold and there are longer layoffs than during the regular season. Probably least of all the differences is the one sports talk hosts weigh most heavily: there is a lot riding on the outcomes of post-season games.

The spotlight cuddles up to some personalities and repels others, but any athlete who has advanced to the Major Leagues has been through hundreds of "critical" games. It's really quite a rare player who "chokes" or "steps up." Mostly, players play, and the vagaries of the game sometimes loom larger when we're paying special attention than when we're not.

I'll probably have something to say about this intriguing array of interlacing trades, but you can be sure it won't have anything to do with who is a good "post-season pitcher."
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13 December 2009

An Homage to Ed Wade

And so draws the curtain on the December finals-time hiatus...

The Hot Stove percolates more actively this millennium and with more onlookers. Some observations:

The Braves offered their impressive relief tandem of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, knowing they wouldn't accept, and then reeled in Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito with reasonable one-year deals. The applecart overturned when Soriano cheated Atlanta of the draft picks by accepting arbitration. Keeping all three, while not the worst idea if you're New England's team, or Orange County's, is cost prohibitive for the Braves. But I'm surprised by the bag of chips they got in return for Soriano, especially considering how badly Atlanta needs hitting.

Chief Nakahoma barely broke a sweat last year celebrating Brave home runs, and Chipper isn't getting and more chipper as the years pile on. (Join the club, Larry.) Atlanta's usually deft GM, Frank Wren, should be able to parlay his unique pitching surplus for a couple of guys who can swing the bat pretty much anywhere but shortstop or catcher. I don't know why he didn't dangle Soriano as bait for such. Word on the street is that he's willing to part with Javier Vazquez or Derek Lowe. Perhaps one of those guys for a proven slugger like Josh Hamilton or a group of positional prospects.

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Time for the yang on all the Yankee-bemoaning yin:

For all their significant advantages, the Yankees certainly haven't skimped on the brass. Brian Cashman has once again cranked the machinery on a three-way deal that brings to the Bronx something for nothing. In relinquishing prospects Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Ian Kennnedy, and middle reliever Brian Bruney, to fill their single biggest major league need -- center field -- Cashman has improved his club without sacrifice. Curtis Granderson is young, affordable (as if that matters) and valuable on both sides of the ball. The prospect status of Jackson, Coke and Kennedy had begun running out and Bruney is an inter-changeable part. Kennedy alone among that group might have delivered value to the Yankees, but unlikely the value -- tomorrow -- that Granderson will deliver.

The move has a second benefit for NY: it moves Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner into part-time, defensive replacement, pinch runner roles for which they are better-suited. It also leaves the Yankee minor league cupboard almost completely bare, but when has that been a problem?

We can whine all we like about Steinbrenner domination of MLB world, but if all it took to get Granderson were these guys and some imagination, any team could have swung the deal. Credit Cashman for getting there first.

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The Brewers should consider trading Prince Fielder.

There, I said it. Milwaukee isn't positioned to contend in the next two years, not with that pitching staff, and they won't be able to afford the portly basher when he hits the free agent market. His body type and fielding challenges suggest a rapid drop-off in his 30s, so why not package him following a gargantuan year for a couple of major league pitchers, which would be one more than they currently sport. The Beerman's two best starters in '09 were Yovani Gallardo and "ppd. rain."

They have to find someone to overvalue Fielder, i.e., someone who believes his future value is reflected in his present line of .299/.412/.602, 46 home runs. For just these situations God created people like Ed Wade, the general manager who just spent $15 million on a middle reliever, apparently unaware that his roster in Houston boasts a grand total of five, mostly overpaid, Major League position players. It is the Ed Wades of baseball on whom competent GMs like Doug Melvin feast, and it's time for a little Thanksgiving in Milwaukee.

Not that I'm suggesting that Melvin pursue a deal with Houston. Other than Wandy Rodriguez, I don't know what the Astros could offer the Brewers, and I'm not sure they would part with their only above-average, below-35 pitcher. In fact, the Astros' roster probably comprises the worst combination of ability and age in the majors, so I'm not sure they could be anyone's trading partner, though I suspect there's some wool that Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman (Tampa Bay) could pull over their eyes. Maybe Wade would like another aged star for Hunter Pence or Michael Bourne.

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You haven't heard much about the Metropolitans this off-season and the reason is clear: no one knows what they have. If their three injured superstars return good as new, the Mets are a player in the NL East, not withstanding their pitching woes. But if David Wright's mystical power outage persists, Jose Reyes loses a quarter-of-a-step and Carlos Beltran begins sliding down Father Time's greasy slope, it could be a long and painful decade in Queens.

Assuming some kind of return to normalcy, the Mets can probably win with their current lineup, even if it's not firing on all cylinders. The mound corps needs an overhaul, but it's important that the Mets don't pile more leaden contracts into a team station wagon already in need of a tune-up. The question is whether the help they need for Johan Santana comes in the form of a refurbished Pelfrey and Maine or outside assistance.

If I were Omar Minaya, I'd lay in the weeds this off-season, strategically inking some inexpensive B-level deals to bolster the staff while moving a year closer to sloughing off the more burdensome contracts. That will give the brass a season to assess their team and a better free agent landscape in which to get busy next year. If that means another poor performance in '10, at least it's not a drain on future flexibility.

That's it for now. I'll have more Hot Stove musings between semesters as things develop.
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