30 March 2010

Whether "anal retentive" Has a Hyphen

The number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.
Anything Hugo Chavez says.
How much money Sarah Palin raises for a presidential bid.
The health warning on a cigarette package. 
The Oakland Raiders' first draft pick.
A baseball player's spring training stats.

What do these things have in common? They don't matter. 

What a guy does in 50 non-consecutive at-bats (or 20 innings, pitched three-at-a-time) against competition that's either headed back to A-ball or working on its nascent slurve couldn't be less relevant if it were the Pope's pronouncements on birth control. 

That's not to say that spring training doesn't matter, or even that how a guy looks during the is irrelevant. We'll be watching some guys'  health closely. (I'm looking at you Brad Lidge.) We'll be looking to see whether some pitcher has developed a new pitch. But let's not get all excited that some lifetime .208 hitter has popped four home runs. I've gone yard in parks with 240-foot fences.

Opening Day is a week away. We'll start finding out then. Man I can't wait.
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26 March 2010

Getting On the JV Team

The winner of this year's Ben Zobrist Award for the best player who came out of nowhere will be Joey Votto. This is a trick selection. Just because you're not familiar with him doesn't mean the big-swinging, 27-year-old lefty isn't already an accomplished Major League hitter.

The Reds' first baseman, Votto has been pounding Major League pitching for two years and a coffee break. His .310/.388/.536 resume may be (Great American) Ballpark-aided, but 53 homers and 77 doubles in a thousand at-bats is hard to argue with.

Votto enters his third full season ready to explode. With a couple of full campaigns under his belt, with an increasing walk rate and with an improving team around him, the big Canadian is channeling Justin Morneau in the Queen City. His .414 OBP in an injury-trimmed season last year suggests a full year of Votto could catapult him into the MVP discussion in '10.

If that happens, you'll hear of him. And you'll wonder, where did this guy come from? Well, a pretty good place.
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21 March 2010

The Curious Case of Mark Reynolds

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed their enigmatic third baseman, Mark Reynolds, to a new three-year, $14.5 million contract, with an $11 million option in 2013. If they are paying for uniqueness, they have their man. If they’re paying for quality, it could be a roller-coaster ride.

Reynolds is a 27-year-old baseball-launching device, personally responsible for a measurable portion of the Gulf Stream when he swings. If you know of him, it’s likely because of his record 223 strikeouts last year.

Reynolds had an All-Star caliber year in ‘09, batting .260 with 44 home runs. He was worth 4-5 wins relative to a replacement-level cornerman. As long as he bats .260, he can keep his OBP at .350, a reasonable escort to a formidable .550 SLG. The problem is, when you whiff in 39% of your at-bats, that’s a tall order.

Last year, Reynolds batted .423 on balls he put into play (BABIP) in order to achieve that overall batting average of .260. The average batsman posts a BABIP around .300-.320. Perhaps Mark Reynolds, because of his gargantuan cuts, is smacking the ball harder on those occasions when he makes contact and is therefore more likely to produce a high BABIP. But .423 doesn’t sound sustainable. It sounds like torrid hitting, masked by a high strikeout rate.

Let’s say instead, that Reynolds strikes out, walks, and homers at the same rate in 2010 as in 2009, but only hits an unusual .390 on balls in play. Lo and behold, he’s a .239/.328/.483 hitter with six fewer home runs. Not bad if you’re goal is to collect a major league paycheck, but not far from a backup role.

For what it's worth, the major projection systems expect very much what I've outlined, pegging him at roughly .245/.335/.490. There's a word for a career trend line like this one: uh-oh.

The Snakes feel like they have nailed down a key puzzle piece as he enters his prime, and maybe they have. However, if Reynolds can’t keep hitting at last year’s pace, we may have already seen his peak, and the $11 million option will be a real knee-slapper. 
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14 March 2010

A Bad Seed

The Texas Longhorns raced off to a 17-0 record and a #1 ranking as the calendar changed on this NCAA basketball season. The Horns have stumbled to a 7-9 record since, fallen out of the Top 25 and succumbed by 30 points to Baylor in their league tournament. So you might have been disappointed that they were "rewarded" with the #8 seed in the East region.

In fact, the selection committee has punished Texas severely and appropriately. Here's the dirty little secret of the NCAA tournament: The #8 seed is the worst seeding in the bracket. (Followed, for the same reasons, by #9.) The Horns' prospects would be better with a seed as low as 11.

There's virtually no difference in quality between teams seeded 7-10 and only a little distance between the six line and the 11. Every team in the middle of the field is good, but flawed. Every one of them can be beaten. So it doesn't matter whether UT plays the nine-seed -- in this case an equally desultory Wake Forest -- or the six-seed -- in this case Marquette.  Either opponent is roughly equal in ability to them.

Between the first and the third seeds, however, lies a chasm. Those are the second round foes facing the winners of the 8-9 and 6-11 games. Should Texas prevail, they have an almost insurmountable second-round match-up with that monster called Kentucky. Should #11 Washington bump off Milwaukee's finest , they have an eminently winnable game against #3-seed New Mexico.

#9 Wake Forest and #6 Marquette are virtually indistinguishable in terms of quality. #1 Kentucky and #3 New Mexico, night and day.

The end result: Texas might win their first-round game, but the Sweet 16 is almost certainly beyond their reach. Amazing for a squad ranked first in the country in January. It's the curse of the #8 seed. If your school is in line for one, root for it to get demoted in the bracket.
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Intriguing Teams of 2010 - Not

“It’s sad, so sad. What a sad, sad situation, and it’s getting more and more absurd.” –Bernie Taupin

Meet the Mets. By far not one of the most intriguing teams of 2010, unless you’d pay money to read a train wreck’s box score. This simply derails the annual Met query.

For sure, the Mets have a power core at #1 starter, shortstop and third base, two outfield slots and closer. If healthy, Santana, Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay and KRod are a sextet of All-Stars, but if healthy, my great-great grandfather would be 150. For the Mets, the page is mostly blank after that, and the problem with the stars and scrubs approach to team construction was vividly displayed last year when most of the stars turned into white dwarfs and black holes.

Worse, the prospects for those six are iffy this year. Reyes and Beltran begin the year on the DL. Age and arthritis add a layer of doubt to Beltran’s recovery as a balky thyroid does to Reyes’s return. Wright’s 2009 Ichiro imitation is a mystery, and while I expect his power to bounce back, it’s only because that’s what great players do, not because there’s some objective data suggesting last season was an aberration.

Beyond that, Met fans should invest in Bayer. The rest of the squad is an Oldtimers Game waiting to happen, combined with youngsters whose upside is a Major League paycheck. If your idea of a great catching tandem is a 29-year-old with a .290 OBP, and a 39-year-old with a .292 OBP, then you’ll love Omir Santos and Henry Blanco.

And you’ll positively erupt with glee over the non-Santana section of the pitching rotation, which is to say, 80% of Met starts. Last year’s version of Isringhausen and Pulsipher – Mike Pelfrey and John Maine – kept the metaphor vibrant with injuries and ineffectiveness. After that, what? Oliver Perez? The guy needs GPS to find home plate. Convert reliever Kelvim Escobar to the rotation? He’ll be pitching for the Disabled List to start the year. Rookie Jon Niese? The 6’4” lefty showed flashes in five starts last year, but relying on him would constitute wishing, not knowing.
 
Citi Field will mask some of that defensive ineptitude with its pitcher-friendly confines, but it won't make any difference in the standings. Flushing's best will have to contend with Philly's Murderers' Row and Atlanta's depth on the hill, not to mention that enigmatic Miami squad that stays in the hunt every year on a Motel 6 budget.


The Mets can claim the title Least Value Per Dollar Spent unless the Cubs begin their 2010 hibernation in July, but that’s the only thing for which this sad outfit is likely to contend. As the song says, Met fans, “sorry seems to be the hardest word.”
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03 March 2010

Intriguing Teams of 2010, Part 3

If you prefer quantity over quality, you’re going to love the 2010 Atlanta Braves. With four fourth outfielders and three-and-a-half number two starters, four guys who can play third base, five who can play first, and none who can slug 30 homers, the Braves are the Everglades of baseball -- a mile wide and an inch deep.

Atlanta largely held down the fort during the off-season, after an 84-win season. They traded their third best starter, Javier Vazquez, for the Yankees’ Mediocre Cabrera. They jettisoned first baseman Adam Laroche in favor of the undead Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske. And they let embattled keystoner Kelly Johnson walk.

What that leaves them with is 73 equally plausible lineup combinations, not one of which sends chills up your spine. Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, the aforemaligned Melky Cabrera and a castoff of thousands will battle for three outfield spots. McLouth and Diaz are nice players: if either showed up at your door to take your daughter to the prom, you’d be pleased, but it’s not like you’re praying that she’ll marry him, the way you did with that Pujols boy when you lived in St. Louis. Neither is a threat to slug .500 or make Georgians forget Andruw Jones afield (especially since Cabrera will staff center.) One more outfielder not worth mentioning is 38-century-old Garret Anderson, who at this point runs like Abe Vigoda and hasn’t hit like an outfielder since Friends was on the air.

At age 38, Chipper Jones can still pick ‘em at the hot corner and hit with his eyes closed. He has not, however, learned how to hit from the trainer’s table, where he is likely once again to spend a fair amount of time. Brian McCann Nakahoma’d 21 times last year to lead the team, and there isn’t much reason to think there’s any bigger wood on the club in 2010. McCann is another Hall of Famer in the making, but he’s not carrying that offense. Yunel Escobar was magnificent from the shortstop position last year; expect him to decline to merely quite good in ’10. In short, the Braves are an offense of guys who bat .300 but slug .420. Not exactly Howard, Utley, Victorino, Werth, Ibanez territory.

Fortunately, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. In Bobby Cox’s last year as chief of the teepee, he’ll trot out Lake Wobegone’s starting rotation, where every pitcher is above average. It starts with sensational sophomore Tommy Hanson, followed by Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, and perhaps by mid-season, Tim Hudson, whose hip ligament needs more time to acclimate to life in his elbow. The staff is as deep as the ocean.

Alas, the same cannot be said for the bullpen. Beyond the re-purposed body of 38-year-old Billy Wagner, 40-year-old Takashi Saito and the Aussie sidewinder Peter Moylan, t’aint much. If Cox can summon unexpected excellence out of the rest of the pen, Atlanta has a shot at the wild card. They’re going to have to do it by preventing runs, because the offense will be challenged to cobble together what it can.

No analysis of the Braves is complete without mentioning the studmuffin in the room, Jason Heyward. Physically he’s Darryl Strawberry and, thankfully, emotionally he is not. At 6’5” and 245 pounds of sinew, Heyward has already made a name for himself at Braves spring training by blasting so many BP pitches into the parking lot behind the fences that management had to install a net to prevent further damage to parked cars. The team shelled out over $10,000 before they finally took action. Still, the yeast has yet to rise on this 20-year-old with just 50 games above A-ball, and team management is smart enough not to take him out of the oven prematurely. The recipe in Atlanta remains unchanged regardless of Heyward’s immediate future: clog the bases, shut down the opposition and keep the Rolaids close.

01 March 2010

Intriguing Teams of 2010, Part 2

Their aging, overpaid veterans have not delivered their value. Their young pitching staff is a cauldron of potential. They dealt their centerfielder to a team that needs him less than they do. Their superstar is a knucklehead. They signed a 36-year-old to be their speedy leadoff hitter. Their impending mediocrity appears to be even more mediocre than last year’s mediocrity.

In other words, they are a favorite in their division.

They’re the Detroit Tigers, and predicting what they might produce this season is as futile as predicting the next San Francisco earthquake. The bookies and statheads seem to agree that the over/under is somewhere around .500. But the Tigers are equally likely to win 91 or 71 as 81, so volatile is their team.

Let’s start with the lineup, which features the league’s most reluctant superstar, Miguel Cabrera. Just 26, he’s already pounded 209 home runs and posted a .925 OPS over six years, playing an average of 159 games a year. As a first baseman in ’09, he delivered his usual performance while overweight and apparently uninterested.

After a verbal spanking from Jim Leyland, Cabrera reportedly buckled down over the winter and reported to camp unencumbered by adipose or attitude. One shudders to think how much better he might be. The Tigers can only hope he’s enough better to compensate for 36-year-old Magglio Ordonez, whom Detroit management allowed to play enough in ’09 to vest a $14 million option despite slugging just .426 with nine homers.

Add third baseman Brandon Inge, who couldn’t hit a volleyball in the second half last year, and shortstop Carlos Guillen, who slumped in ’09 at age 33, to black holes at catcher and second base, and you have to wonder how Detroit will score any runs if Cabrera doesn’t produce.

On the other hand, inking Johnny Damon to lead off could catapult the Tigers to the win column. By solidifying the most underrated spot in the lineup, Damon sets the table for the aforementioned big guns and gives them someone to knock in. He’ll also add some speed to a slow outfield, though he may want to flip the ball to promising centerfielder Ryan Raburn on sacrifice flies.

Then there’s the big cats’ pitching staff, which could deliver anything from dazzling to disastrous. We know that Justin Verlander is money in Comerica Bank, but what to make of Jeremy Bonderman (injured the last two years), Nate Robertson (dinged last year after surrendering a 6.35 ERA in ’08) and rookie phenom Rick Porcello (3.96 ERA despite just 89 K in 171 innings)? Add to that fickle young flamethrowers Max Scherzer in the rotation and Daniel Schlereth in the pen, both of whom Detroit picked up in trade with Arizona, and the return of once-upon-a-time closer Joel Zumaya, and you get the distinct sense that this team could go up or down in a big way.

It’s hard to argue with the experts that 81 wins is about the midpoint for Motown, but this team is the poster child for standard deviation. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them either look down on the division or up at Kansas City in the final standings this year.