Early Season Fun

Small Sample Fun

Jorge Posada has nine hits this year. Six of them are homers. He's fanned 20 times while batting .130. He's crossed the plate seven times, which means he's scored once in 23 games on someone else's hit.

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Whew!

Imagine the Mets' glee yesterday when they discovered that none of the Phillies' vaunted starters would be on the mound against them. Not the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. Not the amazing Cliff Lee. Not Roy Oswalt or Cole Hamels or even Joe Blanton. Instead, they would have the opportunity to take their licks against rookie place-holder Vance Worley.

The 24-year-old righty recorded 113 innings of Double-A work last year and 45 frames at Triple-A, with ERAs of .320 and .377 respectively. He got in 13 innings with the big club, even notching a win. 

Lucky Mets! He shut them down on two hits in six innings, fanning five. So that makes Met ace Mike Pelfrey -- four runs, eight hits in four innings -- what, the seventh starter in Philadelphia? Or is that an unfair comparison because Pelfrey got pummeled by the league-leading Phils while Worley merely faced a Mets lineup with more holes than a mole farm?

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Bunts, Bloops & Seeing-eyes

Back on April 3, the Pirates and Cubs combined for 16 hits -- all singles. The Pirates won 5-4. It's the most hits without an XBH in a nine-inning game in seven years. On August 31 of 2004, the Royals topped the Tigers 9-8 on a combined 17 singles. (Three walks joined in.)

The record for hits without an XBH in a nine-inning game is 22, achieved by LA and Cincinnati on June 3, 1988. The Dodgers pounded the Reds 13-5 on a combined 22 singles, three walks and a HBP.  Dave Concepcion pitched his only inning of Major League ball in that game, relinquishing two of the singles.

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An Important Goal

For all I bash the NHL, is there anything more thrilling than playoff hockey? Sudden-death overtime in game seven of a series? Wow.

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Hall of A Day
At the risk of harping on the Mets and Phils, Roy Halladay stymied the Mets today 2-1. He threw 27 balls all game to 33 batters. Somehow he walked David Wright, which means he missed the plate 23 times against the other 32 batters.

By way of comparison, NY starter Jon Niese, who acquitted himself favorably in six innings of two-run ball while walking just two, threw 39 balls to 27 batters.

I've always assumed there was a minimum number of times a pitcher must miss the plate to keep batters honest -- something like one-third of his offerings. Short of that, batters can simply come to the plate hacking. For some reason, this doesn't work against Halladay.

At what point is Halladay a Hall of Famer? At 172-87, 3.31, with a 3.5-1 K-BB ratio, he's been the best pitcher in the game over the last seven years, and he has two bronze statues of Cy Young to prove it. (He also came in second once.) He's led the league in innings four times and won 20+ three times. His lifetime ERA is 37% better than league average and that includes an injury-plagued 2000 campaign when he got lit up for a 10.64 ERA. He's first among active pitchers in complete games by a wide -- and growing -- margin.

Halladay has produced 56 wins above replacement, most among active pitchers and more than Whitey Ford, Red Ruffing, Joe McGinnity, Sandy Koufax and Rube Waddell, HOFers all. (He's also well behind Kevin Brown and Luis Tiant.) If Doc traded himself to his family as a 34th birthday present in a fortnight, would he get the nod?

I think there's probably some consensus that such a move would leave us in a pickle. He's certainly HOF quality, but perhaps not quantity. Two more seasons of his current magic gets him in the top 30 for Wins Above Replacement and in the exclusive company of HOFers, and not for nothing, puts him over 200 wins.

So Roy, stay upright, spend less time with your kids, and see you in Cooperstown in no less than seven years.
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Quick Hits and Curveballs

Coupla-two-tree thoughts as the sports meld on the calendar...

Have Marvin Miller and Bowie Kuhn usurped the NFLPA and commissioner's office?  The way the players are smacking around the owners is reminiscent of 1970s MLB, when Miller and the union spanked Kuhn and the lords of baseball on a weekly basis. 

The football owners have now blown all of a three games to none lead and are about to fall in game seven. They had solidarity and TV revenues. What did the opposition have -- a rookie union boss and a membership of self-centered knuckleheads? It's a stunning turn of events that is turning Roger Goodell into Tom Dewey.

The latest ruling against the lockout means that the two sides won't settle for a long time. As long as one side thinks it can win, it will not have incentive to compromise. The best case scenario for football now is another uncapped season. 

Maybe folks will watch the World Series in October instead. Pray for two warm weather teams.

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Memo to Carolina Panthers: run like Mike Vick from Cam Newton. Avoid Newton, Mass. Don't eat any Fig Newtons.

Let's consider the track record for run-first quarterbacks with low Wunderlick scores from simplified college offenses: Vick, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russel, Cam Newton. Okay, Newton's a better passer than the rest of them. He's also the only one who grew up in the shadow of a sleazebag preacher.

Run like a leaky faucet, Panthers. There are plenty of other areas in which you suck that could use a top draft pick.

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Warning: Expired Equine Whallop Zone
82-game season and four rounds of playoffs to determine who will face the Lakers in the finals. Ya-a-a-a-awn.

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AJ Burnett threw eight solid innings last night, relinquishing a run on three hits. He lost. How unclutch can you get to pitch well the night the opposing hurler throws a one-hit shutout?

The Rockies' Esmil Rogers knows clutch. The three runs and 12 baserunners he allowed in 5.3 innings stood up in a 5-3 win in Chicago because relievers shut down the Cubs for 3.7 innings.

I wonder what SF Chronicle columnist Bruce Jennings is doing tonight?

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Speaking of not being clutch, how about Jose Bautista. He's followed last season's breakout 50-homer season by leading the league so far in batting average (.364) and home runs (eight), but he isn't even in the top eight in the American League in RBI. What a bum!

Obviously, Bautista doesn't bat .364 or hit home runs when it really matters. The Jays should trade him and get someone more clutch, like Derek Jeter (.244, no homers).

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The Phillies' Cliff Lee and Diamondbacks' Ian Kennedy faced off last night in that bandbox in Phoenix. The two starters combined for one walk and 22 strikeouts, and Lee didn't even pitch the eighth or ninth. Kennedy won in a shutout.

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The Brewers recently inked Ryan Braun to a six-year deal for roughly $19 million/year. It's reminiscent of Ryan Howard's much-criticized contract with Philly in that Braun's a big bopper without a glove. On top of that, the Brewers unwisely bought out several years of below-market arbitration.

That aside, it should work out for Milwaukee. Braun is younger than Howard, and although he keeps buying mitts with holes in them, he's got an athletic body, not the lumbering slugger's build that gives many pause about Howard's ability to compete at age 35. Braun's deal is also for $6 million a year less.

More than that, Milwaukee needs Braun. As mentioned in an endorsement of Howard's contract last year, teams don't win without great players. Milwaukee is the smallest market in baseball, so locking up their star for six years means they won't lose him if his value soars. 

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Feeling Sorry for Baseball Writers

You know the Apocalypse is upon us when baseball writers start earning our sympathy. Well, here we go. 

Decade-long card-carrying BBWAA members are now being asked to parse an era of total uncertainty and enshrine their decisions in bronze for posterity. At a time when the tools to evaluate potential Hall of Famers are more finely honed than ever before, the writers are being asked to throw darts.

I speak of "performance enhancing drugs," of course, but only certain kinds -- the kinds that are illegal or against baseball rules for growing heads like watermelons. Baseball writers will judge some of the greatest performers of all time with absolutely no benchmarks against which to measure them. Are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez Hall of Famers? All have been linked to steroid use; all have HoF credentials. 

Raise your hand if you are convinced that Barry Bonds used steroids? Wha? You in the back, yeah you, what's your problem? Oh, you're a Giants fan. In denial, I get it. How about you? Miss? What's that, she's deaf? Okay, that explains it. Everyone else, you can lower your hands. We even know when Bonds started -- 1999, by which time he had already put Cooperstown in a headlock. Do you deny him entry, or just make him sweat a few years before admitting him? 

How about Rafael Palmeiro? His numbers argue in favor but his urine argued against -- at least in the last month of his career. Does one tainted sample erase two decades of accomplishments? It's worth noting that Palmeiro never exhibited the physical changes, like muscles the size of Rhode Island, that ignited snickering about McGwire, Bonds and Sosa. How about ARod, who has tested clean for several years and admitted using for a period long after he'd established his bona fides. Wherefore a guy like Sosa, who's a borderline HoFer even before you consider whether he cheated. If you shave, say, 10% off his performance, he probably doesn't have a case.

Speaking of cheating, is it cheating if everyone does it? How about if three-quarters of the players do it? How about half? (For the record, the lunatic Jose Canseco, who has been right about everything involving this topic, estimated that 70% of players were doping.) Wouldn't Roger Clemens have been among the best pitchers in the game even without that extra edge?

And what happens when Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio, Derek Jeter and Jeff Bagwell come before the voters? Raise your hand if you know for a fact that they weren't also cheaters. (Of course, Jeter, Biggio and Smoltz have passed drug tests. On the other hand, the cracks in those tests are so wide Lindsay Lohan could get through them.) Hello? Hello?

Those poor writers. Besides blind faith, personal bias, rock, paper and scissors, what criteria can they use to determine? I see a few options here:

The Fatalist -- will throw his hands in the air and elect the top performers, no questions asked. (His cousin, The Denier, will get to the same result by denying that there's any proven advantage from using steroids or HgH.)

The Broad Brusher -- will black-ball anyone whose name is associated with steroid use, period.

The Philadelphia Lawyer -- will bar only those who have tested positive.

The Policy Wonk -- will create his own hierarchy of rules and apply them.

The Situational Ethicist -- will weigh the entirety of the player's career against the certainty and apparent extent of guilt.

One thing we all seem to agree on is that the five-year wait and the 15-year window give voters a chance to consider the issue with clearer vision and due consideration. We need some time to reflect before deciding a movie is an all-time great. (Except for that instant classic -- Mary Poppins. No, really.)

However writers vote, there's a legitimate rationale, as long as they acknowledge the level of uncertainty built into every decision. Personally, I'm the situational ethicist. Bonds, Clemens and ARod would get in, after a suitable period in the penalty box, for sustained greatness. I'd vote for Pudge in part because steroids don't appear to enhance defensive ability. Sosa and Palmeiro were both borderline candidates to me, so a nudge backwards drops them off pedestal. The rules on Planet Loopy are: two strikes and you're out. Nix Ramirez.

McGwire can withstand a small steroid penalty, but there does seem to be significant evidence that his home runs were synthetically generated for most of his career. (On the other hand, the reason steroids are illegal is that they are dangerous, and Big Mac suffered a lot of nagging injuries in his career that might have resulted from steroid use. Maybe the added punch and the lost playing time were a wash.)

The bottom line is that we'll never know the whole story. So I'll be cutting everyone a little slack on this, including the game itself.

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Everyone in the Pool!

Now that Bud Selig has apparently succeeded in his bloodless Dodger coup, he has turned his sights on his MLB death wish. That, of course, is just a tad bit of hyperbole for the ever-expanding playoffs that now appear to be a fait accompli.

The Commish has suggested that adding two more playoff teams will increase fan interest (provably false), promote the importance of division conquest (obviously true) and advantage the best teams come playoff time (not necessarily true.) Conspicuous in its absence is any mention of lengthening the playoffs into March and November and further diluting the regular season.

Let's take a systematic approach to the 10-team playoff to determine more objectively the value of such a move.

1. Adding a Wild Card play-in raises the likelihood that a division winner advances to the World Series. 

Because the differences in baseball teams are only revealed over due course, it's really important for the credibility of the playoffs, and ultimately the championship, for the most accomplished teams over the 162-game schedule to start with a leg up in the post-season.

The added playoff series would seem to disadvantage the Wild Card teams that have to subject themselves to an added level of elimination and possibly burn up a top starter and the bullpen. However, the Wild Card has been the fourth best team in the playoffs just one-third of the time. The Wild Card has been the second best nearly as often, which means that while the division winners will benefit, the best teams won't necessarily. Under Selig's innovation, the embarrassing 1994 Texas Rangers would get a first-round bye for "winning" the West with a 52-62 record while the undeserving Wild Card Indians (66-47) and Royals (64-51) would have been forced to duel an extra round.

2. The play-in series adds urgency to the division title.

This is undoubtedly true, but, so what? What's so special about winning the division? In the anti-climactic 2006 World Series, the 83-78 Cardinals prevailed in their division while the 95-67 Tigers settled for the Wild Card.

3. More teams in contention translates to added fan interest.

Not! Research shows that this phenomenon is isolated and evanescent. It exists almost exclusively for fans of teams long mired in sub-mediocrity, but it dissipates after the first year. It's obvious why: draining the significance of earning a playoff berth offsets the excitement of being in the championship hunt. But if facts don't dissuade you, consider this: if adding teams adds excitement, why not let everyone into the pool? They''ll love it in Pittsburgh!

4. More post-season games inevitably results in more games played in miserable weather -- games that would be postponed in April but have to be played when the championship is at stake. Whatever plan Bud and his buds conjure up for the new format to avoid drifting into November they should apply now to the current format. The post-season is already played way too often in freezing, inclement, non-baseball weather. (See Philadelphia-Tampa Bay World Series.)

5. The more games played after the regular season ends, the less the regular season matters. That might not matter to the NFL, but it presents two major problems in baseball. First, 162 is an awful lot of games to play to codify the inevitable (i.e., Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs) and second, seven-game series are a crapshoot in baseball. Winning the championship is already more divorced from determining the best team in baseball than in any other sport. Adding the team with the fifth best record in the league widens that gap.

I have a proposal that will boost the magnitude of the regular season, transform division-winning into a critical state, radically improve the quality of World Series combatants and bring the proceedings to a close well before Halloween. It's the most fan-friendly solution, which is to say it's a non-starter with  the owners, players and TV networks. It will cost them money in the short run, which seems to be the extent of their vision.

Here's the plan: two divisions in each league, no wild card. One playoff round and then the World Series. Sound familiar? Empty seats didn't start attending playoff games until the Wild Card and its alien spawn -- multiple playoff series -- entered the fray.

It has less chance than Charlie Sheen and a Nobel Peace Prize. But is it too much to ask the lords of baseball to stop the lunacy? Duh...winning!

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A Pro-Choice Throw

Everyday from April to October, I read every box score and every game summary in my local newspaper. I read less of the news every day -- I'm losing interest in which country we've unnecessarily invaded this week or what tired old rhetoric the two political parties are cynically employing -- but I still digest the baseball report whole.

Today is why: I came across this item in the Nationals' 4-3 10-inning win over Milwaukee.

Adam Laroche's 10th inning fielder's choice scored Jayson Werth with the winning run and Washington beat Milwaukee. With one out, Werth grounded to shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, who threw wildly to first. Werth took second on the error. Werth stole third without a throw.

I didn't see the game or hear anything about it. I'm sure there are explanations for the apparent lunacy revealed by this summary. Humor me.

Werth took third without a throw??? He's the winning freakin' run! Why wouldn't the catcher attempt to douse the rally? The base runner is the only thing that matters in that situation.

He scored on a fielder's choice???? Exactly what choice was that?! Werth was the WINNING RUN!!! Did the second baseman have a $200 parlay on Washington winning with two outs in the 10th? If Jayson Werth was one step from the plate the fielder should still have fired home on the minuscule chance that Werth might suddenly enter a catatonic state.

The Brewers can forget their playoff aspirations this year if they're not going to bother working overtime when games go extra frames. That's why I read this stuff everyday.

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Back To the Future at Citi Field

In a reversal of movie titles, the Mets are already living in their past. With mediocrity a near certainty for 2011, the team brass has to begin thinking about whom to dangle on the trade market for future assets.

There's been an odd misconception in recent years that under-performing teams should jettison their best players at mid-season for prospects. This is only true of franchises with no immediate (the following year or two) pennant hopes and stars near contract expiration. A team like, say, the White Sox, would be foolish to flip Paul Konerko for young'ins even if they've stumbled out of contention in the first half of the season. The South Siders have every expectation of being competitive in '12 and '13; Konerko -- signed for two more years -- would be a cog in that wheel.

The Metropolitans are a different kettle of popcorn. Their headaches are of the Wally Pipp variety, and with powerhouses Philly and Atlanta in the division, there's next to no chance they can contend this year or next. What's more, their aging core expires contractually this year and offers tantalizing value to contenders. Inasmuch as his cash-strapped squad can finish fourth in the division this year with or without Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Reyes, GM Sandy Alderson has to be drawing up plans to convert them into younger talent.

Beltran's departure is a slam dunk. Fragile but deft in the last year of a seven-year deal, Beltran can help a contending club this season with his glove, base-running and gap power if his creaky knees are handled with discretion. The Wilpons will probably have to eat some of his remaining $18.5 million salary to get anything in return, but the salary relief alone has some value.

KRod probably has little trade value. He's a middle reliever with personal issues and a closer's W2 at this point. His $11.5 million salary and $3.5 million buyout for 2012 mean that Alderson will not have many options when offering him. Omar Minaya was bamboozled by KRod's gaudy save numbers (194 over four years with the Angels) when he inked the disastrous 3-year/$37 million deal. Again, if all the Mets get is cost-savings it will position them better for more judicious signings going forward.

Which brings us to Jose Reyes. The one-time lineup catalyst is playing his option year in 2011 in hopes of recapturing the 2006-2008 form that inspired images of Cooperstown. Injuries and a persistently low walk rate preclude a return to .300/.354/.487 with 64 steals, but at 28, Reyes is still capable of hitting .280/.330/.440 with 30 steals, playing a creditable shortstop and catching the occasional bolt of lightning. As Alderson demonstrated when he picked up Reyes' $11 million option, that player can lead a team to a season-ending dogpile. Just not this year in Queens.

So Alderson has a decision to make with Reyes. Should he re-sign the speedy infielder in the hopes that the 2012 or 2013 team can contend or should he offer him to a voracious trade market. The going rate for a talented sub-30 rally-starter on the shiny side of the defensive spectrum is a haul of potential. The decision depends on what he expects of Reyes in the coming seasons, how close he thinks his team is to relevance and how much Reyes is willing to accept to stay in NY. If Alderson is honest with himself, Reyes is gone.

After Beltran and KRod have departed, the Mets have four remaining stars. One of them -- Johan Santana -- will spend more time on the DL than with his wife. David Wright, Jason Bay, Reyes and the junk pile that the Mets throw onto the field these days is more than a player or two from a championship. The farm, trades, and free agent signings might provide more relief three years out, but then Reyes and his balky hamstrings are on the wrong side of 30. In short, Reyes is worth less to the Mets than he is to a contender that can put a solid core around him into the indefinite future. Assuming the offers are robust, the Mets should cash in their star shortstop.

If the trio I've named leaves town, this is a pretty sorry squad. Wright and Bay and then just pray. The starting rotation is solidly middle of the league and Angel Pagan is a reasonable facsimile of a center fielder, but the Mets will be playing for the future. Given their immediate past and present, that's probably the direction to look.

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Traded to Madrid for Francisco Franco

I'd give my official South Atlantic League baseball, caught off the bat of a Savannah Sand Gnat at a Charleston (SC) RiverDogs game in 2003, to be a fly on Theo Epstein's wall following the announcement of Manny Ramirez's most recent pregnancy problems and subsequent decision to seek diplomatic immunity in Spain.

The new sitcom, Manny Being Retired, had to make the wunderkind GM shake his head in every conceivable direction. In the time since Epstein dealt the petulant hitting savant to the Dodgers in 2008, Ramirez has managed in turn: spectacular, inordinately costly, frustrating, very good, dismal,  relatively inexpensive and utterly useless -- all within two-and-a-half seasons. If that isn't Ramirez's formerly Hall of Fame career in a nutshell -- and where else would you put his career? -- Snooki is a Rhodes scholar.

Let's review: Finally exasperated with Ramirez's prescient Charlie Sheen imitation, Epstein jettisoned the under-performing bat and glove in mid-2008 along with a minor leaguer in a three-team deal that netted a year-and-a-half of Jason Bay. L.A. received half a season of Ramirez for a trio of prospects and he immediately began tearing the cover off the ball. In 53 games he scorched the NL for a 1.232 OPS, dragging the Dodgers into the playoffs and the League Championship Series.

Based on those otherworldly 187 at bats, the Dodgers signed their new hero to a gargantuan two-year contract. Anyone outside of (Dodger GM) Ned Colleti's immediate family who didn't see that marriage unraveling like (Dodger owner) Frank McCourt's probably thinks invading Iraq was a good idea.

Ramirez rewarded the Dodgers a month into the season by ringing up a 50-game suspension for steroid use. Although he hit a magnificent .290/.418/.531 in 104 games, he contributed nothing in the 58 games he missed, and contributed less than nothing with defense that could charitably be described as execrable.

Midway through year two of the contract and DL visit three for Ramirez, the Dodgers dumped his sideshow on the White Sox, getting absolutely nothing in return, and winning the trade comfortably. Ramirez improved his fielding in Chicago (he DH'd) but otherwise pooped the bed, accumulating two extra base hits over the last quarter of the season. He did get a haircut though, which inspired comparisons to Samson, though the only thing biblical about Ramirez were the plagues he wrought upon his teams.

It's tempting to think that because he used up a roster spot in Tampa Bay for only five games Ramirez had no impact on the Rays. But there is an opportunity cost to passing on other arrangements for DH based on the belief the position had been filled. Their next best option or three may now no longer be available to the Rays.

Which brings us back to Theo Epstein. When Ramirez was printing playoff tickets singlehandedly in Chavez Ravine during the 2008 season, there had to be some frustration in Boston. The soap opera since has served to remind Theo why he took Two-and-a-Half Excedrin off the air in New England. Moreover, when he considers the inexpensive season-and-a-half of Jason Bay that he leveraged  (.915 OPS, good defense and 16 of 19 steals) before wisely leaving Bay to the open market ($66-$80 million over five years), he's got to be doing the cha-cha behind his office door. And that will be helpful now that he's Dancing With the Stars Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, acquisitions he might not have been able to make had he continued to sink millions in Ramirez and the psychiatric office visits that would have necessitated.

Knowing when to fold is one of Theo's talents. It appears it's one of Ramirez's as well.
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Seeing the Invisible

Dear friends of Chris Jenkins,

Two weeks ago, your favorite columnist wrote an epistle against new baseball analysis, ruing the demise of the pitching win. A won-lost record should mean something, he intoned.

A week into the season, I come to praise the win-loss record, not to bury it. Tim Lincecum can tell you the value of a pitching win. He quieted the Dodgers on three hits over seven innings in his first start, but failed his team by allowing his catcher to make an error, allowing the game's only run to score.

Joe Blanton's profile is not similarly stained. He surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in 4.3 frames last night but, because his team owned a seven-run lead, he got no decision. Pitching to the score, I guess. Just as Mike Pelfrey did on the other side, retiring six batters before allowing an eighth Phillie score. He must've known the Mets would tie the game. Bruce Jenkins says neither hurler deserves to lose and Bruce is an honorable man.

Last night, Jason Hammel served up two homers and three walks for four runs in five innings to L.A., but since he knew his Rockie teammates would provide him seven runs, earned credit for a win. The Reds' Edinson Volquez did the same for his run of fives against the limp Astros' lineup -- five innings, five hits, five walks and four runs. Bruce Jenkins says a win is valuable and Bruce is an honorable man.

On Tuesday, the Reds' Mike Leake, Washington's Jason Marquis  and the Cards' Kyle McClellan all held their opponents to a pair of runs in six innings. Leake got the win; neither Marquis nor McClellan did. Relief pitching and run support were the difference, but Bruce Jenkins says the win distinguishes Leake's performance from the others' and Bruce is an honorable man.

I'm not sure how Bruce will explain the loss Derek Lowe absorbed for holding the Brewers to one run in six innings. I suspect he'll point out that he shouldn't have allowed any scoring if his offense wasn't going to cross the plate.

Insightful observers like Bruce Jenkins, who remain versed in the measuring techniques of Old Hoss Radbourne's day, see something the rest of us don't. They see how a pitcher can control for his teammates' offensive and defensive abilities, and want to see that ability enshrined in the won-loss record. And since we don't possess Bruce's special talent, maybe we should just accept his assertions on faith.

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Rethinking Ryan Howard

What's a guy got to do to get some love? How about win a couple of home run titles, knock in 136+ each of four years, get aboard safely at a .372 clip, stick his nose into the World Series twice -- winning it once, graduate college and treat fans well?

C'mon, he even loves his mom. Yet many of the analytically-inclined, including my own personal self, denigrate Ryan Howard and predict doom and gloom for the rest of his career.

In a previous post about Phillies misphortune -- (morphing "f" sounds into "ph" while discussing the phranchise in Philly is a requirement in the blogger's handbook) -- I dismissed Howard as a dimming star because he only smacked 31 out last year. Players his size often don't age well into their 30s, so he's sometimes viewed in the past tense at age 31.

But as Phanatic reader Paz points out, Howard was injured last season and not at full strength for much of the year. Still, his .277/.353/.505 performance would be the envy of most first basemen. If he regresses even halfway to his career standard (.280/.372/.573 with 46 home runs) he remains a mighty phorce.

What are the odds of that? I'd say they're close to 100%, barring injuries. Howard has demonstrated that he's that level of talent. He's still young enough to injure baseballs at an alarming rate. His portside inclinations are an added piece of serendipity. Southpaws throw kryptonite at Ryan Howard (.234/.316/.453 versus lefties), so it's fortunate for him that most innings are served up from the starboard side.

 

What remains problematic for the Philly phirst baseman is the increasing odds of infirmity. Particularly in the cases of lumbering behemoths such as him, it's increasingly difficult to prevent the injury bug from snacking as time marches forward. Because he can't compensate with speed, defense or a DH slot, Howard has much less margin for error. If he doesn't stay healthy and regularly turn around fastballs, he's an expensive clubhouse bauble.

All of which is a long way of saying that we dismiss Ryan Howard at our own peril. He's still an elite hitter until proven otherwise. But...hedge your bets on him.
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Ramon Hernandez for MVP

I can't decide whether my MVP of the season so far is Milwaukee backstop Ramon Hernandez, on pace for an .800 BA,. with 162 HR and 486 RBI, or Dodger fireballer Clayton Kershaw, on pace for a 35-0, 0.00 season with 35 walks and 315K in 245 innings.

One thing I know for sure is I wouldn't want to sign that bum Pujols for five cents. He didn't get a hit all season.

Sympathies to Tim Lincecum, 0-35, 0.00 and victimized by catcher errors every time out. Can a guy compete for the Cy Young even if he's winless?

On the flip side, Jonathan Broxton wins the Rabbit's Foot award for leading the league in saves despite a 9.00 ERA.

People complain that the season is too long. Man, it's five months too short for me. Welcome back, bro.

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