When Mediocrity Is Heaven

What do the following have in common: Lucas Duda, Josh Thole, Jason Pridie, Ruben Tejada, Willie Harris?

a. You've never heard of them.

b. They were in the Mets' starting lineup today.

c. They are borderline minor leaguers.

d. All of the above.

With three-fifths of an already shaky lineup's best players (David Wright, Jason Bay, Ike Davis) nursing injuries, this bevy of backups (combined Value Over Replacement Player equal to one quarter of Jose Reyes') has already accumulated 624 plate appearances.

Predictably, this motley crew, anchored by Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan, smoked Alexi Ogando and the Texas Rangers 14-5 today. (That would be the formerly invincible Alexi Ogando.) In many ways, it has been a microcosm of the season in Queens.

During a year in which all five of their best hitters have spent time on the DL, and their best starter since Tom Seaver has been out all year, Terry Collins' roster has managed to flirt with .500 through half the schedule. The Miracle Mets? That's 2011.

The rotation features such lights as Dillon Gee, Jonathan Niese and regression king R.A. Dickey. And the bench, well, you don't have a bench once Jason Pridie is starting. But the emergency back-up bench -- e.g. Brad Emaus, Mike Nickeas and Chin Lung Hu (I'm not making up these names) -- could win a game of hide and seek against Major League pitchers without hiding.

There's no single bullet; this collection of mutts has gotten it done -- about half the time, anyway -- with equal parts hitting and pitching, though their defense lags. That they're middle of the pack at the plate and slightly below that on the mound is a tribute to ...something. Other than MVP candidate Reyes (.334/.380/.506 26 steals), a resurgent Beltran (.273/.368/.474) and young Davis (.302/.383/.543), who may be done for the year, there isn't a "wow" in the bunch. None of the non-stars has more than four home runs, or six steals or a .350 on base average, except Ronny Paulino, whose .319 batting average in 95 at bats is offset by just four extra base hits. 

On the hill, it's all B-plusses, and no As. Everyone in the rotation but ace Mike Pelfrey has pitched to an ERA under 4.00, but no one has been lights out. The same with the relief corps: with the exception of the conflagration that is DJ Carrasco, everyone with 17+ innings has an ERA under 3.80. AT the same time, there isn't a sandman in the bunch.

Add to that the supposed distraction of Fred Wilpon's financial and intellectual bankruptcy, and it would be understandable if New Yorkers gave the team a pass this year. Instead, through all the disappointments and dyspepsia, the orange and blue are hanging on. 

The Mets won't contend this year, nor in the foreseeable future if they let Reyes go. Still, they've represented the outer boroughs with a lot of scraps and a loosening grip on Mr. Madoff's ill-gotten wealth. In Flushing these days, that passes for a victory.

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Baltimore Chops & Texas Leaguers

Giants phenom Madison Bumgarner entered last night's game against the resurgent Twins with a 3.21 ERA. He left with a 4.06 ERA. Giving up eight runs in a third of an inning will do that to you. But it could have been worse. His reliever quashed a two-on, one out rally.

An average Game Score for a pitcher is about 50. Bumgarner's latest episode earned a 2.

The 21-year-old's previous worst outing in 2011 was a five-run, five-inning performance in his second start. He's surrendered two runs or fewer eight times this season. He won't be over 4.00 for long.

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The Phils' Cliff Lee and Cards Kyle Lohse squared off against each other Wednesday night and held each other's teams in check on three runs and 13 hits in 17 frames of work. They walked one and struck out three between them.

Think about that: 17 mostly impressive innings (all the runs scored against Lohse on a pair of dingers in the fourth) and only three whiffs. You know how often you see that? Never.

The reason is BABIP. Pitchers who don't fan batters are relying on balls being hit into gloves. That requires a gumbo of good defense and lucky placement. Lee's shutout withstood five line drives (75% of liners are hits, often for extra bases) and 17 grounders (skid through roughly 35% of the time, but mostly for singles). He induced just three pop-ups (almost always outs). In other words, Lee was either very lucky to surrender just two doubles and four singles, or he had some special sauce that resulted in the kinds of weakly-hit grounders and flies that return batters to their dugouts.

Lohse's case is as odd as his pronunciation. He didn't walk or strike out a single Phillie in eight innings. (It's only the 23rd time in 23 years that a pitcher has gone eight innings without a walk or strikeout.) Nary a double or triple passed his way either. But two of the 16 fly balls against him left the park, and that's why he lost. Lohse got two thirds of his pitches over the plate, but he wasn't fooling anyone. That's a bad combination for a righty facing Ryan Howard.

Lohse also out-performed his pitching profile, which would produce on average 13 safeties, rather than the seven he surrendered. Clearly, some nifty leather-working saved him, as the Cardinal defense turned three double plays behind him.

The bottom line is that in the long run, BABIP will float to the surface. That's why you don't see successful pitchers failing to get a even a single strike three.

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From baseball-reference.com: 

Jack McKeon first managed the Royals in 1973. He had some great players during his time, like John Mayberry, Hal McRae, Lou Pinella and Paul Splitorff. Regarding those players:

• John Mayberry's son is now a big-leaguer
• Lou Piniella retired as a player, became a manager, and retired as a manager
• Ed Kirkpatrick and Paul Splittorff are deceased
• Hal McRae retired as a player, his son retired as a player, and McRae retired as a manager

McKeon? He's still managing 25-year-olds.

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This one's just a question. With the College World Series down to its final four (three SEC teams, including the hometown defending champion 'Cocks) did the city of Omaha really build a $130-million  baseball stadium for just two weeks a year? The Triple-A Omaha Royals have their own park, as does the University of Nebraska-Omaha.

Someone please tell me I Googled a sham site. I wasn't aware anyone outside of South Carolina, Alabama and Mississippi was that dumb.

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Offending the Gods of Causation

Jim Riggleman has fallen into the same rabbit hole that every baseball reporter's been peering up from for a century. He mistakenly believes that managers matter and that anyone cares who doffs the cap in Washington's dugout this year.

Riggleman took his ball and went home today saying he was too old to be disrespected after Nationals' brass refused to pick up his $600,000 option for 2012 prematurely. Dear (GM) Mike Rizzo: I am not too old to be disrespected for $600K a year, a generous per diem and free tickets to 18 Phillies games. I'll come to DC to skipper your ship. Your pal, Waldo.

The reason Riggleman expects the franchise would commit to spending 600 large for something it might not want is elusive, unless he knows in his heart that he'll need a big ninth inning rally to win another term at the helm. He seems to be in the middle of a fourth inning rally with the Nats on an 11-1 streak to .500, but it could be long-forgotten by September.

Of course, crediting the manager for his team's spasm of success violently offends the gods of correlation and causation. The inconvenient fact about managers is that they have precious little control over team performance. If you want to judge a manager by his team's W-L record, then Robert E. Lee was an under .500 leader whose team finished last during his four years with the Richmond Confederates.

I was reminded of all this not by Riggleman's snit, but by reaction to Jack McKeon's temporary care-taking in Miami. Following each of the three games played by the McKeon-captained Marlins, the baseball media have cataloged his apparent impact on the final score. If we really have to explain to a reporter the inanity of judging a manager by one, three, 20 or even 50 games, then he might want to consider the night court beat.

What we all conspire to ignore is that managers are charged with three primary functions, and two of them have no immediate effect on their team's play. Only lineup construction can possibly alter team effectiveness immediately, and even that is an organizational decision. A manager's main task is to create a culture in the clubhouse, something that happens over months, not days, and still represents little more than a pinky on the scale. 

A dearth of hitting, pitching and fielding talent swamped Joe Torre's managing acumen in his first 14 years with the lowly Mets, Braves and Cards. His teams saddled him with an 894-1003 record. Torre didn't suddenly get 1173-767 worth of brilliant when he took the helm of the Yankees. He got 1173-767 worth of Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Roger Clemens, David Cone, Paul O'Neil, Scott Brosius, etc.

(Managers are also responsible for in-game decisions, but they are so rote that even the average jamoke could adequately pull the levers in a major league game. Do you really need a Dartmouth MBA to bat for the pitcher with a runner on and down by a run in the bottom of the seventh?)

The Marlins could storm back from the abyss and snag the pennant this year, or they could fold like a wet potato chip and move to Brooklyn. Neither would shed a single photon of light on Jack McKeon's managing ability. As long as he's bedfellow with Hanley Ramirez's .605 OPS, the Florida manager is doomed.

Apologies to Jeff Foxworthy for mangling his witticism: if you're name's on the building, you're filthy rich, if it's on the door, you're doing great, if it's on your desk, keep grinding, and if it's on your shirt, you might be a redneck. Managers' names aren't even visible from in front. It's no coincidence.

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A Change of Plans

So you're a sportswriter for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer covering the M's tilt against Washington on June 21. It's the middle of the ninth and you're a couple of quotes and one mouse click from hitting the send key on a completed story. It looks like this:

Doug Fister baffled Washington batters with solid command and a four-pitch repertoire, limiting the home team to a run on three hits and a walk in eight impressive innings as the Mariners humbled the Nationals 5-1. 

The top three in the Mariner order, Ichiro Suzuki, Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy combined for all the offense the team needed with seven hits and four runs scored. Brandon League finished Washington off in the...

Oh, wait. League's in some trouble. With two out, left fielder Jerry Hairston just singled home shortstop Ian Desmond and moved Jayson Werth to third. 

Brandon League made it interesting in the ninth, allowing a run to score and putting the tying run at the plate before David Pauley mopped up.

Uh oh. Keystoner Danny Espinosa brought Werth home with a single and now the tying run's at first. You can just edit that last paragraph.

Relievers Brandon League and David Pauley made it interesting in the ninth, allowing Washington to climb within two before stranding the tying run at first base. Pauley earned his first save of...

Oh. Ohhhh. Pauley is kicking dirt as Nats catcher Wilson Ramos exults. The baseball Ramos just hit to deep center is about to change ownership. That's a real walk-off homer, because no one has to run.

Select all. Delete. It's going to be a long night of rewriting. Here's the Associated Press account:

Wilson Ramos capped Washington's five-run ninth inning with a game-ending three run homer, lifting the Nationals to a dramatic victory over Seattle. 

Jerry Hairston Jr. and Danny Espinosa each had two-out RBI singles before Ramos connected on a 1-1 pitch from David Pauley., hitting a drive to deep center for his sixth homer. Ramos threw his arms up almost immediately after the ball left his bat as Pauley (4-1) trudged off the mound.

The Mariners wasted a fine effort from Doug Fister.

Dang. I hate when that happens...

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A Win Saved Is A Win Earned

When we say that Tim Hudson earned a win yesterday in the Braves game against the Blue Jays, we mean he earned the win. Hudson dominated Toronto over eight shutout innings and plastered a two-run homer for the only scoring of the game. Give that man a cookie.

Hudson relinquished just two hits in eight-plus innings, walking one and fanning eight. For those of you not bothering to keep score, that's a far finer effort than a five-walk, three-strikeout no-hitter.

That said, Hudson owes a tip of the cap and a malt beverage to closer Craig Kimbrel. After Hudson allowed his only free pass and a base hit to start the ninth, Kimbrel entered the game with first and third and the lead on the line. He preceded to blow away Jose Bautista (.330/.476/.657), Jose Lind (.324/.369/.605) and (anti-climax alert) Aaron Hill (.242/.284/.344) on 15 pitches. "Kimbrel" is to "closer" as "pizza" is to "meal."

Sometimes a win really is a win and a save really is a save.

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Eighteen Hits of Choke

Luddites in the world of new baseball analysis often complain the statistics can't capture everything in the game, like moving the runner on a ground out or motivating teammates with "intangibles."  While that's true as far as it goes, the newfangled stats like OPS (on base average plus slugging percentage), VORP (value over replacement player) and SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) capture much of what is unaccounted for by flaccid old stats like batting average, RBIs and pitching wins.

The inter-league rivalry game between the Orioles and Nationals last night provides a great example. Baltimore's first baseman, Derrek Lee, notched a double and four singles in five at bats. Center fielder Adam Jones smacked a double and three singles in five at bats and right fielder Nick Markakis added four more singles. Second baseman Robert Andino pitched in a single and a double and others added safeties, including pitcher Zach Britton and pinch hitter Vlad Guerrero in his only trip to the plate.

The O's batted .419 with their 18 hits ... and plated just four runs in an 8-4 loss.

Batting average just fails to represent enough of what transpired in this game. One important reason for Baltimore's fecklessness is that despite making 43 trips to the plate against six different pitchers, they didn't manage a single walk. Perhaps D.C. pitchers were laying every offering in the strike zone, but more likely, the Orioles need to alter their approach at the plate.

The Nats can take more credit for playing error-free ball in the field and turning a pair of double plays to douse rallies. Geeks and deniers can agree that the Birds' inability to string hits together was also a key contributor to their low run total. Because just three players produced 13 of the team's 18 hits, there wasn't much opportunism up and down the lineup. Indeed, the Orioles left 13 on base. 

Seamheads would call that an unfortunate distribution of results. Change-haters would ascribe psychological characteristics to the two teams, asserting that the Orioles weren't "clutch" or Nationals pitchers "bore down." Research finds there is very little to that. No matter how you measure it, there's little consistency to "clutch hitting" or "choking" among players, and even less among teams. 

Indeed, just the night before, Baltimore left just seven men on base and scored two in the ninth to defeat Toronto. So they're not chokers, just a team whose batting average doesn't tell the whole story. And in that sense, the Baltimore Orioles are every team in baseball.

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Payback's Gonna Be A Bitch

Before Ranger northpaw Alexi Ogando got torched by the Yankees for six runs in five outs on Tuesday, he was 7-0, 2.10. A deeper dive into his body of work suggests that 2.10 is irrevocably in the rear view mirror and 3.50 is decidedly on the horizon.

Ogando was being fitted for a bust in the BABIP Hall of Fame until 12 Bronx batters stacked up four singles, two doubles and a walk against him. Batters were hitting just .210 on balls in play against him this year (it's now a similarly unsustainable .226), which suggests that Lady Luck wasn't just on his side, she was accompanying him to the Oscars.

In 124 lifetime innings, Ogando possesses the fourth lowest pitching BABIP of all time. No one with any experience is below .240, suggesting that Ogando is due some comeupance. Compounding the misery-projection, the 6'4" Dominican has stranded an otherwordly 81% of baserunners. Research shows that this characteristic is almost always a function of pure happenstance, so a visit from the regression fairy seems inevitable.

As Ogando's BABIP and strand rates return from Death Valley, his ERA will rise towards 3.68. That's the number that seamheads have determined best represents the value of his pitching given average luck and fielding. A 3.68 ERA is a mark of excellence, particularly at The Hitting Factory at Arlington, but it isn't 2.10. If a 3.68 ERA is a valid representation of his ability, Ogando has some robust paydays ahead of him.

Of course, that ignores one important issue. The 27-year-old sophomore twirled just 72 frames last year between the minors and majors and only 80 minor league innings over three years before that. In other words, his arm is already in uncharted territory. It would surprise on one who is paying attention if, come mid-season, he's gassed.

So while Ogando appears to be a legitimate talent, he's not yet Pedro. If you've got him on your Fantasy team, sell high now.

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And You Thought Jackie Robinson Broke the Color Barrier

I remember riding the subway as a teenager with some friends  -- all Caucasian -- when a very inebriated black man got into a discussion with us. 

"You're white, right?" he asked, clearly on the way to making a Kumbaya statement about race.

"How did you know?" I asked perkily. "Roy White!" I leaped across the aisle and shook his hand. 

"No, no," he stammered. "I mean you're white and I'm..."

"Do you know my friends?" I interrupted cheerily. "This is Vida Blue, Dick Green, Alvin Dark and Red Ruffing! Say hi, guys."

"Wait, no, I mean I'm a black man," he enunciated through the Thunderbird haze. "And you are white boys. But we're all here together getting along."

"Well sure, we're getting along," I said, "but I'm the only White boy here. Alvin isn't a White, he's a Dark. And even though he stays over my house a lot, Dick's not a White, he's a Green. Vida's a Blue, though a lot of kids at school say he's yellow. Ruffing is a...well...a Ruffing, but he's Red. Not a Red like Brezhnev, if you know what I mean. He's as American as apple pie. More like red, white and blue."

The poor guy just folded into himself at that point, overwhelmed by a torrent that seemed to him disconnected from whatever point he had been trying to make. He remained sullen until we bid him a hale adieu at our stop, reminding him which color of the wheel we each represented. I'm not sure if we advanced or set back race relations that evening.

That scene was brought to mind again by this fanciful post penned by Jacob Peterson at Beyond the Box Score, in which he calculates what color name produced the most, best players.

Here are the concluding paragraphs:  

After tabulating the results, "White" came out on top. While "Brown" had the top two color-named players in MLB history (Kevin Brown and Mordecai "Three-Finger" Brown), there were no other star players with that name. "White," on the other hand, had 8 players with at least 25 WAR, led by Roy White, Deacon White, and Devon White. All of this despite there being more than twice as many players named "Brown" (86) than [sic] "White" (40). "White" was also helped by having relatively few players who came in below replacement-level: 30%, compared to around 50% for most other names.

Coming in a distant third was "Green," which featured solid careers from Shawn Green and Danny Green, but not much else. There have been only 7 fewer Greens than Whites, but the Whites have accrued 227 more WAR.

Right on the heels of "Green" was "Blue," which finished in 4th place despite only having 3 MLB players to its name. Of course, two of the three players were Vida Blue, the longtime A's ace, and Lu Blue, the 1920's 1st baseman who was sort of like that era's John Olerud, though with a bit less power. By average or median WAR, "Blue" easily comes out on top.

The accompanying graph is pretty neat, so see for yourself.

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Twelve's Not Enough

It was a big night on Monday for Diamondback starter Zach Duke. His team spotted him 12 runs in four innings and he smashed a two-run cookie at the plate against the drowning Marlins.

Alas, Duke did not get the win. Up nine-zip, he relinquished three runs in the third, one in the fourth and another three before he could get out of the fifth. Duke left the game with a five-run cushion, but came an out short of "earning" the win.

The good news is: he didn't lose. That's high praise for a 4 2/3-inning performance of seven runs on 13 hits, including doubles by each of the two opposing pitchers. It can come as some consolation that the Brewers' Randy Wolf and Cubs' Ryan Dempster also didn't win, despite pitching seven shutout frames against each other. They walked one and fanned 14 between them.

Also not losing was the Rays' Alex Cobb (5 2/3 shutout innnings) and Detroit's Phil Coke (6 1/3 innings of goose eggs). So they're all in the same boat with Duke as far as the W-L record goes.

A.J. Burnett can't say the same. He held Cleveland to a run on five hits, a walk and eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. But he was "charged" with the loss.

Of course, there's one thing Duke accomplished that the rest of the pitchers didn't. In a 12-9 barn burner he hit the game's only home run.

Baseball's a crazy game.

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Indian Givers

Well, that didn't take long. While we were all wondering whether the Cleveland Indians were for real, their entire team signed with the Miami Heat.

Since jumping out to a seven game lead over the rest of the AL Central and a 17-game advantage on the woeful Minnesota Plan B, the Indians have dropped 14 of 18 while the Twins' substitutes have begun competing. Detroit, 11-4 in its last 15, has caught the Indians, and the Twins, though still looking up at the rest of the league, are within seven games.

It's not just bad luck in Cleveland, which would be redundant anyway. The Indians have scuffled on both sides of the ball, tallying under three runs per game while allowing more than six during their slide. Minnesota, meanwhile, has discovered itself, though most of itself is on the DL (Joe Mauer, Denard Span, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel). The two leading sluggers on the team are Michael Cuddyer, 9 home runs, and Danny Valencia, 5. (Yes, that Danny Valencia.) That's an annual rate of 25 and 12 respectively, which is roughly what your bank CD is paying these days.

Even if staff ace Francisco Liriano continues his comeback on the mound and manager Ron Gardenhire remembers where his bullpen went, it's going to take a paradigm shift for the Twins to become relevant again. The same can not be said for Detroit or the White Sox, who are now within three-and-a-half of the division lead. They both look capable of looking capable over the last 100 games and making the early aptitude of the Indians and scuffling of the Twins ultimately irrelevant.

But they had us wondering for a minute there. 

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Him Hit Cookie...Yum Yum Yum

Reports of Big Papi's baseball death -- notably mine -- were greatly exaggerated.

Following a poor 2009 season and a miserable start to 2010, David Ortiz suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous predictions. Combining his declining skills with a big body and an inability to play the field (not to mention steroid whispers), many pundits wrote Oscar the Grouch stories about Boston's Cookie Monster.

I plead guilty to some of this. Here's what I said last April: "Undoubtedly, the wrist injury of '08 was part of the equation, but turning 230 pounds into baseball's golden years -- he's 35 this year -- is likely responsible for some of it too. Look for Ortiz to continue to be an asset, but a depreciating one, particularly since he can't play the field."

Here's your depreciating asset, punditheads. After batting .143 with one home run last April, Papi finished the season at .270/.370/.529 and 36 blasts, and has started this year at .326/.394/.612 and a 40-homer pace. He's already twice as valuable as he was in the injury-plagued '08 campaign.

The pivot point seems to be that Ortiz can get around on lefties again. He's hitting .333 versus southpaws after struggling to .221, .212 and .222 the last three years. He's never really powered up against same-side hurlers, but as long as he gets on base with regularity against them, his ability to crush righthanded pitching means he's still an awfully dangerous at-bat.

So in retrospect, it appears Ortiz's wrist woes sapped his strength in '09 and maybe during the cold New England April of last year. But he's been hotter than Courtney Kardashian since, which is to say he's the same David Ortiz he was from '03-'07. The conclusion being drawn, that Ortiz was in decline because his performance had tailed off, he was aging and other players built like him hadn't aged well, was reasonable, but ultimately wrong. Those factors suggest decline, but they don't guarantee it.

The Red Sox may luxuriate in a full season of the Big Papi who led Boston to a pair of World Championships. Still, they would be wise not to bet the farm on his svelt self after his contract expires this year.

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Ichiro At .261

Ichiro Suzuki is going to the Hall of Fame. A .330 lifetime average, 400 steals at an 80% rate, 10 straight 200-hit seasons and a rifle in right field, combined with a brilliant first act in Japan punch his ticket. A former Rookie of the Year and MVP -- inappropriate and undeserved respectively -- and a consistent Gold Glover, he's not just worthy; he's unique. He's the second or third greatest leadoff hitter of all time even without his career in the Orient.

So far in 2011, we're seeing exactly what Ichiro's limitations have always been. In a nutshell, for Ichiro, it was always about piling up singles. Infield scrambles and shallow outfield drop shots have always been the key to his value. They drive an unprecedented lifetime BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of.356. (Unlike most pitchers, hitters do have some control over their BABIP. Great bat control, hitting line drives, avoiding pop-ups and shallow flies, and beating out infield hits all inflate BABIP, which inflates overall batting average.)

This year, at 37, Ichiro seems to have lost his magic. With a below average BABIP of .280 and batting average of .261, Ichiro is a replacement level player. Lacking power or much of a proclivity for free passes, his .261/.317/.299 is abysmal for a corner outfielder. He's still swiping bases -- 14 in 18 attempts so far, but the defensive metrics suggest he is no longer an asset in the field either.

What this suggests in practical terms is that he no longer possesses the rare ability to place the ball on the field. Losing a split second of reaction time to age makes all the difference in the world in that regard. 

There's no precedent for quite this. In Ichiro's worst previous year, 2008, he still sported a fluky-looking .334 BABIP, batted .310 and got on base nearly 39% of the time. In 2005, a BABIP of .316 held down his average and on base to career-lows, but he seemed to be swinging more for the fences, smacking a career-high 15 homers.

In those two seasons, Ichiro was a below-average hitting right fielder. His other virtues still made him a reasonably valuable 4-5 win player, but none of that was due to a .300+ batting average that we thought for years branded a player exceptional.

Live by the BABIP; die by the BABIP. This may be the early hours of the sun setting on a singular career, a career based more than any other in history on a freaky ability to flick out the bat and loop a pitch into right field.
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What's A Guy Gotta Do To Get Playing Time?

Cubs manager Mike Quade has only given sophomore outfielder Tyler Colvin 81 opportunities at the plate this year following an intriguing rookie season. Colvin, a Clemson product, impressively pounded 18 doubles, five triples and 20 homers in just 358 at bats. On the other hand, his .315 on-base average and his 100 whiffs versus 30 walks were worrisome.

Rookies are notoriously inconsistent, so with a little coaching, it certainly appeared that the former first round pick could improve his plate discipline and get on base more often while continuing his ball-crunching ways. Then why is Quade refusing to play him?

Well, the .096 batting average may have something to do with it. That's right, in 81 plate appearances, Colvin is less than halfway to the Mendoza line. That's worse than all but one of the team's starting pitchers. Even with seven walks accompanying his seven hits, his on base average is .173. Where an OPS of 100 is an average major leaguer and an OPS of 85 is a futility infielder, Colvin's OPS is 12. Twelve.

If Miguel Tejada (.211/.237/.271) is a grape's worth of putrid at the plate and Reid Brignac (.173/.209/.182) an apple, then Colvin is a watermelon. Besides the oh-fer lifestyle he's engaged in, his party is in a corner outfield position. The difference between Colvin and a replacement corner outfielder is six runs. That's how much better the Triple-A scrap heap acquisition would be.

It doesn't get any better: all his hits came in April. Granted, he spent most of May in Des Moines, but 0-17 in the bigs isn't improvement.

What's wrong, his hitting coach says, is that he has holes in his swing, chases junk outside the zone and needs to make adjustments now that pitchers are onto him.

It's not like the Cubs are going anywhere this year with or without Colvin, but this isn't the way one positions himself for a future roster spot. Except on the West Tennessee Diamond Jacks.

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What We (Don't) Know Part III

Every couple of years, some team finds itself sprinkled with magic dust. Their best players deliver as expected while their lesser lights shine unexpectedly. A couple of young guys who weren't even in the pre-season plans contribute. A patchwork of starters get the job done and a gaggle of middle relievers deliver excellence in anonymity. The team combines good fundamentals with a few lucky breaks to win a handful of close games. The roster sidesteps injuries, things click and the team -- the '02 Angels, '05 White Sox, '10 Giants -- savors the fruits of victory.

Is it the Cleveland Indians' turn this year?

Despite a recent flattening out -- 10-10 in their last 20 -- the Tribe continues to sport the best record in baseball and the largest division lead, following predictions that they'd be lucky to win 75 games. Their two best players -- Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore -- have respectively failed to get untracked and failed to get healthy. The rest of the lineup, led by shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and resurrected DH Travis Hafner, has picked up the slack. Pronk has hit 71% better than the average player, albeit in only 32 games, and Cabrera has channeled Alex Rodriguez at short, both with the stick and the leather.

There was always talent in the lineup, latent though it appeared to be. The pitching is another matter, providing the bigger surprise and greater opportunity for decline. Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin are 12-5 combined with ERAs under 3.30 despite K rates around six per game that don't bode well going forward. The less said about the rest of the rotation, most notably ace Fausto Carmona, the better for Northeast Ohio,  and the bullpen has coaxed great results (9-3 2.89 RA and 14 saves) out of middling performance (87/44 K/BB ratio, 1.17 WHIP). Avoiding the long ball -- closer Chris Perez is untouched in 23 appearances -- has gone a long way for the relief corps.

The team is playing smart too. The advanced metrics see outstanding defense worth two wins on its own, led by outfielders Choo, Michael Brantley and Austin Kearns. They're also stealing bases judiciously at a 73% clip, with the big three of Choo, Brantley and Cabrera swiping 21 of 24.

Cleveland plays in a moribund division, but it's faced Boston and Tampa Bay six times each, and woeful Minnesota only twice, meaning there's plenty of light lifting ahead of them. On the other hand, they've  pulled a year's worth of rabbits out of hats -- 11 wins in the final at bat -- something that can instill confidence in a young team, but tends to even out over time.

Perhaps the best news along Lake Erie is that the AL Central is more a subtraction than a division. No one else seems capable, at least as presently constituted, of flirting with excellence in the remaining 2/3rds of the season. As long as the wheels don't come off in Cleveland, that leaves the Tigers, the lone team within eight games, with the only realistic chance of offering any competition.

The Indians have the goods to maintain their offensive explosion, especially if Sizemore can get back on the field, Choo and Kearns heat up with the weather, and former third-base prospect Matt LaPorta continues to develop. Defense tends to remain consistent over a season. The real question is whether the starters can hang on while the relievers continue delivering. They're due for a downtick in that area, the size of which will determine whether Cleveland can squeeze out the 86 wins it takes to claim the Central.

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Going "Long" On Granderson

In his three seasons for the Kansas City Royals' Triple-A Omaha squad, Kevin Long "hit" .234/.291/.304, never earning a call-up. In 1,632 Double-A plate appearances over five years, the 5'8" 165-pound outfielder poked all of eight home runs.

Yet, if Kevin Long tells you to open your stance and move back your hands, do it. That's what the Yankee hitting coach reportedly instructed center fielder Curtis Granderson to do late last season. Early this season has been the result.

Granderson is slashing .278/.348/.612 with 17 home runs in the first third of the season, the fourth best overall hitter in the American League. (Jose Bautista, Matt Joyce, Miguel Cabrera) Add the last two months of last season, when he got up off the mat to post a 261/.356/.564 line with 14 homers, and Granderson has led the Bombers with 31 blasts in his last 102 games. He's been worth five wins during that time.

Context is important, and the Bronx is kind to hitting, but Granderson has produced better on the road (1.013 OPS) than at home. The lefty swinger has pummeled (1.125 OPS) lefties this year -- his nemesis in previous campaigns. For you "clutch" fans, Granderson's been a monster (.390/.432/.854) in high leverage situations. To top it off, he's a quality middle outfielder who can offset Yankee experiments with weak cornermen.

Simply put, when Granderson hits, the pinstripes win, and this year he's hitting. So when you espy New York at the top of the AL East pyramid, don't wonder how a team with suspect pitching and albatross seasons from Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher can still perform. It's all about a hitting coach whose talent ran out at Single-A ball, and his star pupil.
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