31 July 2012

Never Alone In First Place With A Schizophrenic

Some teams, like the Astros and Cubs, are total estate sales. Because their gaze overlooks the horizon to a point in time two years hence or further out, everything of value must go. Expensive 30-something veterans can make their team irrelevantly better today, but are unlikely to contribute to the next pennant winner. 

Exchanging these luxury items for the coin of the realm -- future stars who may form the foundation of a contender -- makes sense. And that is exactly the course those two franchises have taken.

Some teams, like the Rangers and Yankees, are smooth sailing yachts seeking to batten down the remaining hatches. The present value of a win or two added by the acquisition of an accomplished baller is far greater than the future value of a prospect. They sensibly go all in to acquire the best players they can get.

That's why the Rangers swapped a pair of -- presumably promising -- minor leaguers for the Cubs' Ryan Dempster. It's why the Angels-Brewers deal sending Zack Greinke to L.A. for no one you've heard of is sensible on both sides. (I'm assuming the rebuilders got something of value. My knowledge of minor leaguers is encyclopaedic in the sense that there is no longer such thing as an encyclopaedia.)

Then there are teams that are rebuilding, but only for this year. The Marlins, as I've mentioned before, should be in that position. They'd assembled a club of stars that dimmed in 2012, but who can redeem themselves in 2013. Teams like that might relinquish pending free agents, but should expect to reload for next season.

Which is what makes recent moves by the Phillies so confounding. They seem to be lurching back and forth between contender and rebuilder like a drunken sailor. One day they sign away Cole Hamels' free agency with $144 million and the next they deal two important pieces -- outfielders Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.

It's not just that the Phillies should reload for 2013; they have no choice. Ruben Amaro Jr. has nearly an entire payroll bound up over multiple years in aging stars -- Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, all of whom have under-performed in one way or another this season, leading to a total team face-plant. The only hope the Phils have in the short term is to add judiciously for next year and make a run at a flag.

Signing Hamels confirmed that approach. Then today. Victorino and Pence are two of the younger, higher performing and cost-controlled stars. At least with Victorino, 31, Amaro dealt a pending free agent whom he perhaps knew couldn't be re-signed at a price he considered reasonable. But the 29-year-old Pence has another year of arbitration and several more of peak value in front of him. He's also provided the second-best stick on the team this year (behind catcher Carlos Ruiz) with a .281 True Average. The only Major Leaguer coming back in those deals is Nate Schierholz, a lifetime .270/.319/.421 fifth outfielder in six partial seasons.

The result is that nothing has changed for 2012 in Philadelphia, but there'll be less Phightin' in them in 2013. And it leaves them betwixt and between, neither contender nor rebuilder, seemingly schizophrenic about their place in the baseball universe. It could be a long, slow, painful decline for Brotherly Lovers.

29 July 2012

Olympic Basketball? Thhhhpppp!


A few quick words about the Olympic basketball "competition."

Are you watching the U.S. team play in the Olympic basketball tournament?

Are you listening to the pre- and post-game analysis? The sports talk between games?

Are you getting excited about the U.S. team and the possibility of a medal?

Are you kidding me?

The top 15 players in the world who are in the tournament all play on the US Olympic basketball team. You don't agree? You think Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker outplays Andre Iguodala? Fine. Make that 12 of 15. 

Roughly forty-five of the top 50 players in the world are Americans. Half the teams in the tournament do not include a single NBA regular on their roster.

In what way is this a competition? I'd rather watch Barney Frank read banking regulation in his underwear. A U.S.-Tunisia match-up isn't just a rout; it's unappetizing. A squad of the 15 worst NBA players could name their score against the outclassed Tunisians. It's like organizing a pickup game between your schoolyard friends and the local middle school for mentally retarded kids. You'd be embarrassed to win.

This all stems from the humiliation felt by U.S.basketball insiders after the Soviets won a couple of gold medals in real competitions (and one suspect call) over American college squads. Failing to secure its birthright gold caused the basketball universe to explode. So U.S. Olympic bigwigs created the "Dream Team" and turned the Olympic basketball tournament into a nightmare. It's now as interesting as Michael Phelps swimming against your local summer rec league.

I will be rooting like mad for whoever is playing the Americans. The arrogance that created this sideshow could use another swift kick in the crotch. It's a futile wish, of course, but that's exactly the point.
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28 July 2012

Oh Yeah, Him!


He's amassed 300 homers in  less than 10 years -- and the long ball isn't his signature skill.

He's hit 30%-81% better than the rest of the league every year, except for his half-season at age 20.

His sparkling lifetime .318/.394/.558 has been accumulated in offense-reducing parks.

He's still getting better. Last year he hit .344/.448/.586 with 48 doubles. The drop-off this year feels like going from Michael Phelps to Ryan Lochte: he's at .327/.385/.585 and on pace for 40 home runs.

And his name isn't jumping to mind.

His weight and fielding acumen have moved in different (and seemingly permanent) directions, he runs the bases like molasses flowing uphill, and there's been some question about his commitment, but Miguel Cabrera is already most of the way to a bust in Cooperstown nine months shy of his 30th birthday. He's already provided his teams with 43 offensive wins against replacement, about what Bernie Williams and Jason Giambi did in roughly twice as much time in the Majors.

Cabrera could still eat or drink his way into oblivion, but not withstanding that, he's nearly a shoo-in to 500 homers and the Hall of Fame. He's got at least a couple more years of MVP-caliber thumping in him and then a slow fade of above-average play after that.

Pretty good for a player you hadn't thought of.
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25 July 2012

It's the End of the World As We Know It, and They Feel Fine in Pittsburgh


In the last week, the Yankees secured a spare part of no particular value (the remnants of Ichiro) to further overpopulate their outfield, the Dodgers traded a promising pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) for a high-priced malcontent who can no longer handle short or third or slug like he used to (Hanley Ramirez), and the Pirates -- the Pirates! -- swapped a trio of farmhands for a veteran mid-rotation hurler (Wandy Rodriguez), while the Astros acquired three more prospects for a 30-something pitcher (aforementioned Wandy) who's got to be tired of hurling in vain.

And the Marlins cashed it in, 95 games after mortgaging the franchise with a trio of free agent leaps.

Holy Upside-Down Day, Batman! What's going on here?

The usually-adept Yankees have a long history of plugging last-gasp veterans into limited roles, but it's hard to fathom Ichiro. His .261/.288/.353, 16 of 18 steals and banishment from center field are indicative of his declining skills. I guess the Bombers are expecting a 65-game rebound from him to cushion the loss of Brett Gardner.

The rejuvenated Dodgers are banking on a change in scenery for Ramirez, who was aggrieved by the signing of Jose Reyes that displaced him at short and left him scuffling like it was 2011. Still just 28, he has spent 180 games hitting .245 and losing 200 points of OPS from his '06-'10 peak. A $30 million L.A. gamble, he's tumbled from cost-controlled, five-tool superstar to below-average, multi-millionaire position-filler. Although he displaces Dee Gordon, an empty uniform at short or Juan Uribe, a sub-replacement lead weight at third, replacing replacement-level performance is hardly worth the trouble.

Meanwhile, Houston and Pittsburgh, two of the saddest sack franchises in baseball, orchestrated a deal that not only benefits both, but is tailor-made for both of them. The Astros had the easy part, converting a quality 33-year-old pitcher of no value to them into a trio of potential future assets. 

In Pittsburgh, the "Welcome Back To Relevance" banner now hangs in PNC Park. A bumper crop on the farm has allowed the team to bolster its rotation for a -- gulp -- playoff run, and two more seasons beyond, with little damage to the future. The 'Stros pick up nearly half the $30 million tab for the Wandy-man, leaving Pittsburgh plenty of room in 2013 to obtain more strategic assets. For Houston, now occupying the Pirates' old position in the pecking order, it's about plowing under this year's crop to prepare the soil for future growth. 

And then there is Miami, which needed all of four months to scuttle its expensive but ill-conceived four-year plan. I wonder how that gaudy new stadium is going to look empty. Well, we'll soon find out.

New York is still World Series favorites, the Dodgers are still a fraud, but now a poorer one, the Marlins are still a mess, but without the daily reminder. The Pirates and Astros are each something new: a contender and a wise investor. It's nice to see.
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22 July 2012

WAR! What Is It Good For?


In another sign that the apocalypse may be delayed, ESPN has officially adopted Wins Against Replacement, Baseball-Reference.com's all encompassing measure of a player's value compared to a whatever his team might be able to find trolling the waiver wire or Triple-A. 

WAR is a simple concept, trenchantly summarized here by David Schoenfield at ESPN. It's nice to see that the people who are adopting the statistic understand what it means and how it's used.

If you just skipped the link, I encourage you to go back and click it. Schoenfield both describes and demonstrates how WAR can be useful. He also employs it to illustrate what a spectacular rookie year Mike Trout is having at age 20. Of the seven players on the list of best 20-year-olds whose careers are complete, six are all-time greats. The other is Vada Pinson, who was a terrific player in his 20s but tailed off severely thereafter. 

Schoenfield also describes the limits of WAR, and while generally on target, he misses the mark in two places.

First, he is right that WAR is not the be all and end all statistic. It is comprehensive, but imperfect. Some have used this as a knock against sabermetrics, this inability to produce a statistical singularity. But it comes a lot closer than anything that preceded it, and no doubt it will improve.

On the other hand, WAR strips out all the noise -- era, field effects, position -- and helps us make comparisons that standard statistics miss. Schoenfield describes how right fielder Josh Reddick and his .880 OPS for Oakland has been twice as valuable to his team as Prince Fielder and his .888 OPS has been to Detroit.

Schoenfield makes an interesting observation, but also stubs his toe here: 

One, it's my opinion that WAR shortchanges pitchers with durability...take, for example, Roy Halladay. When figuring his WAR, you're calculating his value over a replacement-level pitcher, maybe a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA or whatever that level is these days. But a Triple-A pitcher isn't going to give you seven or eight innings every start like Halladay does, and certainly not 233 innings like Halladay gave the Phillies in 2011. But WAR, the way I understand it, sort of assumes that's the case.

He is right that Halladay, by taking the ball every fifth day and pitching deep into games, provides added value to the rest of the pitching staff beyond the strong results he produces. WAR doesn't calculate the value of keeping relief arms fresh, anymore than it figures the cost that a DH imposes on his team's lineup by forcing the manager to play a lesser hitter in order to cover the defensive position the DH vacates. But WAR does account for Halladay's continued excellence over 233 innings. Compared to a pitcher of exactly equal performance over 117 innings, Halladay's WAR is double.

The core weakness of WAR is the weakness of its constituent parts. Most salient is the defensive component, which is still a mere approximation of actual defensive ability. Indeed, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs all have their own proprietary defensive metrics and they often vary widely on the same player. (One vivid exception is the glovework of Derek Jeter, upon which they all similarly cast aspersions.) Because we have so little confidence in those defensive formulae, it makes a goodly chunk of WAR highly suspect.

Consequently, you will rarely see WAR (or its Baseball Prospectus equivalent, WARP) quoted here.  Defensive calculations will one day provide more insight, but today, they are still too unsteady to lean on. I prefer VORP or oWAR, which calculate only offensive value over a replacement player.

Still, it's another advance for the general understanding of the game that the corporate behemoth agenda setter in sports coverage sees the value in, and offers to the public, a new and revealing tool in player evaluation.

(Thanks to Dick in Charlotte for bringing this to my attention.)
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21 July 2012

500*


When I was a kid, a 500th home run was a seminal moment in a Hall of Fame player's career, and usually in the waning days of it. I remember Mickey Mantle limping around the bases after swatting his 500th, the back pages of the NY papers aglow with the aging superstar's accomplishment.

Last night, Jim Thome hit his 610th to pass Sammy Sosa for seventh place on the all-time list. Apropos for a man of such humility, there was little fanfare. We're so jaded about big flies, particularly in the wake of the Steroid Era*, with the DH lengthening careers and allowing one-dimensional players to hang on and collect stats, we hardly pause to note such milestones. Moreover, in an era of OPS and WAR, the eminence of the home run has somewhat faded.

*The Baseball rulebook requires that The Steroid Era be capitalized, much as the Cretaceous Era would be.

Consider: there will be vigorous discussion over the Hall worthiness of both Sosa and Thome. Barry Bonds, the all-time king, and Alex Rodriguez, who has 700 in his sights, will both pass through a gauntlet before getting their busts. (I suspect Thome gets his; Sosa is more questionable.)

There are now 25 members of the 500 Club, with Albert Pujols bearing down on it. Not one of them fails the numbers test for Cooperstown, but Mark McGwire (583), Manny Ramirez (555) and Rafael Palmeiro (569) will all face considerable opposition.

Once upon a time*, 400 was near automatic for enshrinement, with only Dave Kingman and his .302 OBP and iron glove on the outside looking in. I'm not sure a single member of the recent crop would get my vote: Fred McGriff (493), Carlos Delgado (473), Jose Canseco (462), Vlad Guerrero (449), Juan Gonzalez (434), Andruw Jones (432 and counting), Jason Giambi (429), Paul Konerko (410 and counting) and David Ortiz (401 and counting). (I haven't given much thought to Delgado, Vlad and Big Papi. They're all legitimate candidates -- better than Jim Rice -- but hardly the locks that 400 home runs bestowed upon their predecessors.)

*August, 2001

When the Mick hung 'em up after the 1968 season, he was third on the all-time home run list; he's 16th today. Billy Williams (426) was 16th on the list upon retirement in 1976. He's 45th today. A lot of good hitters are going yard 400 times, but it's no longer solely the province of all-time greats.
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20 July 2012

Fish Or Cut Bait: When Marlins Flounder


Grab the Advil; I just made you general manager of the Miami Marlins. You've got a spiffy new neo-gaudy downtown ballpark, a Spanish-speaking (but non-thinking) manager, a stunning young slugger named Giancarlo, and a boatload of high-priced free agents, from the electrifying shortstop to the shutdown closer. You were going to battle the Phillies for the top spot in the NL East.

Which is exactly what you're doing as long as we read the paper upside down. It's no consolation to you that the Phils are playing more like the Dr. Phils. Your squad is four games under .500 and 10 games out of first 5/9ths of the way into the season. They've been outscored by all but four teams in the Majors and the pitching is below average as well.

Your stud hot-cornerman has failed to rebound from a strife-filled 2011, recouping his power but not his on base skills or any defensive acumen. Your entire starting staff -- thought to be a strength -- has flirted with average but gotten few dates. Your high-priced free agents have run the gamut from good to godawful:

Mark Buehrle 2011: 3.59 ERA, 2.4 K/BB, 31 starts/205 innings
Mark Buehrle 2012: 3.13 ERA, 4.2 K/BB, 32 starts/218 innings*

Jose Reyes 2011:.877 OPS, 39/46 steals, worth 6.1 wins
Jose Reyes 2012: .714 OPS, 36/43 steals*, worth 2.9 wins*

Heath Bell 2011: 2.44 ERA, 2.43 K/BB, 4 blown saves
Heath Bell 2012: 6.21 ERA, 1.70 K/BB, 11 blown saves*

*on pace

And now the trade deadline looms as your playoff hopes fade. Nearly every team thinks it's in the hunt, tilting the market in favor of sellers like you. But what are you selling?

Your Marlins are not a rebuilding team. They plan to compete next year, at the latest. Flipping your marketable players for farmhands doesn't help your club in 2013 and 2014 when you expect to be in contention. Besides, you're trying to fill the seats against the competition of beaches, nightlife and endless diversions; another salary dump will not endear you to the fans.

Tis a puzzlement. Having emptied the vault for a World Series run, your three choices are: 1. Go all in on this season, trading more future stock for free agents.  2. Trade the present for a shot at the future . . . again. 3. Probably your best choice -- do basically nothing and hope you're better next year.

Whichever choice you make, you'll want a goodly share of ibuprofen.
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19 July 2012

One Year At A Time


The New York Yankees can thank a pair of Hall of Fame infielders, potential Famers at first, second and the mound, a clampdown bullpen and sluggers all over the lineup for their 10-game lead in the AL East and near certain postseason entry.

But World Series winners tend to catch lightning in a bottle too, and the Yankees have gone storm-hunting this year with great results. Consider these four veteran players:

Andruw Jones: 154 PA, 12 HR, .851 OPS
Eric Chavez: 157 PA, 8 HR, .849 OPS
DeWayne Wise: 56 PA, 7 XBH, 7 SB, .841 OPS
Raul Ibanez: 254 PA, 12 HR, .766 OPS
(League-average OPS is around .730) 

Jones has taken the sting out of losing Brett Gardner for much of the season. Chavez has offered Alex Rodriguez respite at the hot corner. Wise provides a lefty platoon bat and CF defense if need be. Ibanez is bald.

All four are longtime Major Leaguers who aren't what they once were, and in Wise's case, never were. Each could have been scooped off the scrap heap by any team in the Bigs. And best of all, each is on God's Gift to GMs -- the one-year contract.

We focus so much on the shiny pieces that Yankee brass spends three months' salary to acquire that we often fail to notice these diamonds in the rough. Taken together, Jones, Chavez and Wise constitute a full-time-equivalent, collecting more hitting value than every Yankee star but Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. The trio has out-hit Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez.

But if they hadn't panned out, no harm done. The entire quartet cost the Bombers $4.5 million without any future strings attached. The Pirates, Rays and other cost-conscious contenders would do back-flips over three extra wins this season for $4.5 million and no 2013 commitments.

Throw in another $4 million and you get fifth starter/reliever Freddy Garcia,whose tottering performance, particularly as a starter, has vindicated the short-term contract. That's the thing about one-year deals: when they work out, the choice of player is inspired; when they don't work out, the duration of the contract is. It's a win-win for the team, and win-win describes the Yankees pretty well these days.
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14 July 2012

All the King's Horses


A remarkable thing happened in the Mets-Braves tilt this afternoon. Something you don't see very often.

With Martin Prado on first in the bottom of the fifth, Jason Heyward blooped an R.A. Dickey floater into left field. Jordany Valdespin raced in and short-hopped the ball with a sweep of his glove, raising it aloft to signal a catch.

Third base ump Dale Scott bought it and called Heyward out. Prado, who was standing dumbfounded on second raced back as Valdespin threw to first for the double-play. As the umpires huddled, mayhem ensued.

That the ump blew the call was unremarkable; this particular crew was having a tough day all game. In the top of the fifth, Valdespin beat out a bunt by a half-step and got called out by first base arbiter CB Bucknor. Before and after, batters on both teams chirped repeatedly at home plate umpire Dan Iassogna's strike zone, whose lower limit meandered from lower-thigh to mid-shin.

What was remarkable was that, following the missed call on Heyward's flyball, all the king's horses put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Acknowledging the original mistake, the umpires switched the out call and then went about repairing the confusion that followed. Had the right call been made, Heyward would have stood on first and Prado would have advanced to second, without any outs being recorded.

So that's what they ruled.

The Mets, of course, had a cow. Terry Collins, gesticulating wildly, was invited to watch the game from the clubhouse. Dickey, visibly annoyed, seemed to come untethered and allowed a two-run double by Freddie Freeman.

Objectively, this was the best case scenario. Although the umpires created chaos, they ultimately got the call exactly right. Everything was restored to its rightful place.

Isn't that what we want from our umpires? If they make a mistake, they should admit it. If they cause a mess, they should fix it. If they get it right in the end, that's all that matters.

So bravo for Iassogna and his cohorts. They may not have the best eyes, but they have humility and well-ordered on-field priorities. And in the end, they made the right call.
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08 July 2012

Freaky Bad & Other First Half Oddities


Something is freaky with Tim Lincecum, and not in a Tim Lincecum-freaky kind of way. His walk rate is up 38% and he's allowing 28% more baserunners. He's not getting his fastball over, which is just as well, because it's lost four miles-an-hour of velocity. Losing four miles an hour from one year to the next is like growing four inches. It doesn't happen to Major Leaguers under the age of 51. (Good news, Jamie Moyer, not that you have four mph to lose.)

The Giants' stopper is 3-9, 6.08. The Web is abuzz with theories, ranging from exhaustion to the loss of his regular weed dealer. (No kidding.) Old Kremlinologists have found a new career parsing Lincecum's pitching woes. (Kidding a little.) What's definitely true is that the Giants' only hope of winning the division without contributions from their star is to stay in the NL West and wait for the Dodgers to wither.

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Why so little confidence in the Trolley Jumpers? Because Don Mattingly has sent out beanstalk shortstop Dee Gordon to bat leadoff in three-quarters of the games Gordon's played. That's understandable, since Gordon rocks a .280 on-base percentage. Problem is, it's .274 when he leads off.

But there's good news for fans of the Blue and White. Dee's on the DL. Let's see if Mattingly can find another suitable leadoff hitter -- perhaps speedster Tony Gwynn. He's got the DNA and the .294 OBP.

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Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Placido Palanco and Carlos Ruiz have all gotten into the lineup together just 40 times in the Phillies' last 400 games. They have a .725 winning percentage in those games, which means that if they all manage to stay upright the rest of the season, the Phils will win 90 games and a Wild Card.

And if I get dealt 133 royal flushes in a row, I could win money in the World Series of Poker.

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Nice to see Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel unmasked as the fraud he is. Last year he used a scorching fastball and biting slider to intimidate NL batters into a .208 batting average, fanning 127 in just 77 innings en route to a 2.10 ERA and a league-leading 46 saves as a rookie.

What a fluke! In just the first half of this year, he's already surrendered five runs.

Some may point out that Kimbrel again leads the NL with 24 saves, his strikeout rate is up over 15 per nine innings, his walk rate is down and batters are hitting just .123/.198/.160 against him.

But they neglect to mention that in 31 appearances he's been roughed up for a double and a homer. Plus, he's setting the club back nearly $600K. 

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Brewers ace Zack Greinke got ump-tossed after four pitches to Astro batters yesterday. Logically, he's back on the hill today with the All-Star break following. Greinke is also slated to start the Brewers' first game after the break next Friday, which would be his usual spot in the rotation.

If it all works out, Greinke will be the first pitcher to start three straight games since Red Faber of the  1917 Chicago White Sox.

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The All-Star Futures Game tomorrow features all the best young prospects in the game -- except for the two most important. That's because Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are already tearing up the Majors.

Harper  is hitting .283/.355/.475 for the Nationals and has electrified fans in the nation's capital. Just 19, he is younger than all but one of the prospects representing the five NL East teams in the Futures game.

Angels' centerfielder Mike Trout, at 20, leads the AL in batting and could even make a mid-season MVP case (.343/.399/.555) as a rookie. He is younger than all but two of the prospects representing the AL West.

Neither will be at the Futures game because they are the Present. And neither can legally celebrate with a beer.
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04 July 2012

Contenders and Pretenders


The following is the L.A. Dodgers lineup that Don Mattingly trotted out for a scrap with the Mets on June 30 in the absence of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Included is each player's OPS+, i.e., their OPS compared to a league average of 100:

C -- AJ Ellis, .400 OBP, 125 OPS+
1B -- Juan Rivera, .296 OBP, 77 OPS+
2B -- Jerry Hairston, Jr. .370 OBP, 117 OPS+  (Jerry's son)
SS -- Dee Gordon, .279 SLG, 54 OPS+ (Tom's son)
3B -- Juan Uribe, .259 OBP, 49 OPS+
OF -- Tony Gwynn, Jr., .319 SLG, 68 OPS+ (Tony's son)
OF -- Elian Herrera, .327 SLG, 82 OPS+
OF -- Scott Van Slyke, .222 OBP, 43 OPS+ (Andy's son)

There is a word for this cast of misfits and the word isn't nepotism. The word is Isotopes. As in the AAA farm club in Albuquerque.

Aside from Ellis, who provided a taste of this in 31 games last year, and Hairston, who's 80 points of OPS over the head of his 15-year career, this is a minor league roster. The other six players combined have cost L.A. a win compared to a Triple-A lineup.

The pitching is solid and Kemp, Ethier and keystoner Mark Ellis will return, but that simply displaces some of this dreck to the bench, and leaves three or four black holes in the batting order. After a torrid Kemp-fueled start, the Bums have stumbled since he got hurt to 24 defeats in their last 39 games and slid into second place. The second half does not promise to be kind to the Dodgers because, despite early indications, they are not for real.

The standings on July 4 include several mirages. Here's a look at the surprises and whether they are for real or not.

White Sox & Indians -- Can Chicago and Cleveland remain at the lofty heights of slightly above-.500 records? In the case of the Sox, sure! A solid lineup including unheralded center fielder Alejandro de Aza ranks fourth in the AL in scoring and has the ability to maintain the pace. The pitching and defense is a little more wobbly, but 6'6" lefty Chris Sale's cool-off should coincide with a revitalized Gavin Floyd and John Danks. A plausible 86-76 record could pace the AL Central.

In rebuilding mode, Cleveland is more likely to jettison veterans than cling to a .500 record. The Natives have been out-played and outscored, and have only two reliably good players -- shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. I'll eat my moccasins if the Indians are within two games of the division lead at season's end.

Tigers -- Trodding old ground here. In short: pizza, nectarines and chocolate are all delicious, but would make a terrible sandwich. That's the Tigers.

Orioles -- The Birds have already begun their annual water slide ride. Adam Jones is Superman, but Baltimore's pitching is Kryptonite. Brian Matusz, 6-19, 7.33 over the last two years, has mercifully been returned to the farm, but the O's have no replacement. Not for real.

Red Sox --  Write them off at your peril. Trading nothing for Jacoby Ellsbury and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the second half should aid the rebound. They're for real, but their age is real too.

Nationals --Oh yeah. Great pitching. Youthful exuberance. This team needs another bat. Hey, woudja lookit that -- Jayson Werth returns soon.

Mets -- Not so much. (Previously covered. Upshot: A great story, but Dickey has peaked and that lineup is Wrong after Wright.)

Phillies -- Like the Red Sox, a declining veteran roster expecting back two stars. Unlike the Red Sox, the remaining veterans have almost unanimously not delivered. The return of Halladay and Lee could change everything, but the patient people of Philly have begun thinking Eagles.

Brewers -- As previously noted here, the Brewers' troubles have less to do with the departure of Prince than with the decline in pitching. Closer John Axford and fourth starter Randy Wolf have melted down and the bullpen is a dumpster fire. The offense, fifth in the NL in scoring, is playoff-worthy if paired with a decent mound corps. It's not too late to right the beer truck with a couple of modest trades for middle relief, but after they do, there are three teams to climb over. Milwaukee is better than this, but maybe not enough better.

Pirates -- Andrew McCutcheon and broad-based mound excellence have catapulted the Bucs into first place now that their losing-seasons streak has graduated high school. Their success is no illusion, but the playoffs are a stretch and the front office won't sacrifice any prospects for short-term gain. In fact, scuttle is abut sending #3 starter Eric Bedard to a contender for young talent.

Still, the future's bright enough for shades. Beside their miraculous center fielder (.360/.411/.612), the rest of the batting order has under-performed and owes the long-suffering denizens of the Steel City improvement. Jose Tabata (.230/.295/.341) and Garrett Jones (.270/.296/.520) will determine next year and beyond whether the great Pittsburgh drought ends. In the meantime, the Pirates are real enough for a winning season in 2012 and for possible contention as soon as '13.

There's gold in them thar hills for the Mets, Orioles, Indians and Pirates, just not this year. We may look back, though, at the changing of the guard that germinated in 2012.
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03 July 2012

Half Notes


The fans have generally represented themselves well in All-Star voting. This was a bit of an off-year. 

Late Internet flurries have tended to push the best candidates to the fore, but this year online traffic fueled by team marketing efforts steered the ballot in the other direction. For example, the Giants raffled tickets to anyone who voted 20 times, criminally pushing Pablo Sandoval (.833 OPS) over David Wright (1.007 OPS) at the NL hot corner.

Many of the choices, though not mine, are defensible. I picked the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz at NL backstop, but Buster Posey's .850 OPS sits on a foundation of stardom, while Ruiz's .999 OPS is by far the zenith of his career. Asdrubal Cabrera (.862 OPS) has been the AL's best shortstop for two years and got my nod, but the fans want to see first ballot Hall of Famer Derek Jeter (.752 OPS) and his .300 batting average at age 38.

On the other hand, Mike Napoli's Texas-infused surge at AL catcher, where he's played just two-thirds of the time, might owe something to his magnificent 2011 (1.045 OPS), as opposed to his scuffling this year (.773 OPS). Joe Mauer (.863 as a full-time catcher) clearly deserved it more.

The fans really face-planted at NL shortstop. Casting their lot with Rafael Furcal (.713), they picked a player with barely average hitting and fielding this year, following a season of barely average hitting and fielding. Arizona's Jed Lowrie (.809) and Astro phenom Jose Altuve (.791) would both have been far superior choices.

This is an observation, not a complaint. On the whole, the fans do their homework and leave little more than quibbles. Players, managers, sportswriters, gypsy women with tarot cards -- none of them have  better track records.

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Sliding Billy Hamilton swiped 914 bases in his Hall of Fame career, leading the league in on base percentage five times over 14 years.

Well, he's at it again. Billy has already appropriated 100 bases at high-A Bakersfield after 103 thefts in the Midwest League last season.

Okay, it's a different Billy Hamilton, this one a 21-year-old Reds farmhand and the former a 19th-century Phillie and Beaneater. Elder Billy stole 100 bases one season; young Billy has 64 games left to top that mark.

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Tom Wilhelmsen has pitched 45 innings for the Seattle Mariners this season and surrendered 12 runs on 35 hits, 13 walks and 55 strikeouts. Not one of those runs scored in the month of June.

His bullpen mate, Charlie Furbush, has been touched for just seven runs on 16 hits, eight walks and 45 strikeouts in 34 innings. Not one of those runs scored during the month of June.

The two behemoths (6'6" and 6'5" respectively) threw 33 scoreless frames over the 30-day period. The M's went 11-16 for the month. 

That might have something to do with a starting lineup paced by Ichiro's .268 batting average. (His OBP is .296). Or Justin Smoak's 11 home runs. (He's hitting .204). There are more hits in one Seahawks practice than on this whole sorry squad.

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Baseball Prospectus says the Washington Nationals started the season with a 17% chance of making the playoffs. That now stands at 72%. The same projection put the Phils' odds (after losing Howard and Utley) at about even to start the season. They are now negligible.

This tells us one of two things:
1. There's a reason they play the games.
2. Baseball Prospectus's projection system isn't worth the electrons it's printed on.

Or perhaps, both.
b