Ron from Boston read the NL Cy Young post and wondered offline if Atlanta's Craig Kimbrel doesn't deserve consideration. Kimbrel's historic domination from the closer position deserves some award, but 63 innings, even high-leverage innings, just aren't as important as 230 from the starter's position.
That said, here in a nutshell is the extent to which Kimbrel toyed with National League hitters:
Just for fun, count all
the guys who walked against Kimbrel in 63 innings. Add all the guys who singled, doubled and tripled. Add the three batters who homered. Add both batters hit by pitches. Then add all the batters who grounded out, flew out, popped out, lined out
and sacrificed. Add the guys who hit into fielders' choices. Add them
all up. All of them.
That number is 115 batters. Kimbrel struck out 116, more than half the hitters he faced.
The German
word for that is: Unfreakenbelievable.
30 October 2012
29 October 2012
. . . And Now the NL Cy Young
When I was a college student, my school announced that they would be bringing concerts onto campus. Not the top names, like Bruce Springsteen and the Grateful Dead, but second-tier acts.
In my mind, that meant The Police and Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers. Because as an American, I was a hopeless front-runner. If you weren't number one, why even bother?
In fact, the school was booking bands that were not played regularly on the radio and did not sell out arenas. Second-tier meant bands that had to tour to earn a living. The Michael Stanley Band. John Hiatt. Nazareth. I couldn't believe that they actually wanted to charge us to see these no-accounts.
We're the same way with sports. If Johnny Cueto isn't the best pitcher in the National League, doesn't lead the league in wins or winning percentage or ERA or complete games or quality starts or innings pitched or VORP or strikeouts -- well, how well could he have pitched?
The answer is: remarkably well. Johnny Cueto is a candidate for the NL Cy Young. He's not the best candidate, but he threw 217 innings of 2.78 ERA ball, fanned three-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked and provided the Cincinnati Reds with 23 quality starts. Do that for 10 years as they start carving bronze of your likeness in Upstate New York.
There are quite a few pitchers, as it turns out, who fall into this same category. Cole Hamels struck out 216 batters in 215 frames and posted a 3.05 ERA in the run factory in Philadelphia. Gio Gonzalez won 21 games with a 2.89 ERA and whiffed 207 batters in 199 innings. Stephen Strasburg might have been the best pitcher in the NL until the Nats shut him down with more than a month to go. Matt Cain served as ace for the World Champs, going 16-5, 2.79 while Adam Wainwright gave another great performance, 20-11, 2.42.
But this post isn't about those gentlemen, fearsome they may be when standing 60.5 feet away. This is about the top act, the number one best pitcher in the National League. The two hurlers who will battle for that distinction are Clayton Kershaw and R.A. Dickey. A pair as different as Abbot and Costello. The young fireballer against the veteran knuckleballer. The suddenly-flush Dodgers against the cash-strapped Mets. The phenom versus the phenomenon.
But Kershaw and Dickey do have two important things in common. Both pitch in stadiums designed for pitching stats and both made hitters mutter this season.
Kershaw's peformance looks like this:
14-9, 2.53 in 228 innings and 25 quality starts. He struck out a batter an inning with a 3.63 K/BB ratio.
Dickey was even better:
20-6, 2.73 in 234 innings and 27 quality starts. He struck out not quite a batter an innings with a 4.26 K/BB ratio.
In fact, although Kershaw posted the league's lowest ERA, Dickey is first in innings, strikeouts, K/BB ratio, complete games, and quality starts among top Cy Young candidates. He also throws that groovy speed-knuckler and offers sportswriters the best opportunity to write about perseverance and redemption, and to weave a heart-tugging tale in which the good guy finishes first, Durocher be damned.
You could certainly make a case for Kershaw and for several others as well. But Dickey is the best choice not only because we want him to be, but also because while Kershaw logged two-thirds of his innings in the Ravine and performed significantly less brilliantly away from home, Dickey proved he was not a Citi Field Phenomenon. At 10-3, 2.90 with a better K/BB record on the road, Dickey was the best pitcher in the NL no matter where he performed.
In my mind, that meant The Police and Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers. Because as an American, I was a hopeless front-runner. If you weren't number one, why even bother?
In fact, the school was booking bands that were not played regularly on the radio and did not sell out arenas. Second-tier meant bands that had to tour to earn a living. The Michael Stanley Band. John Hiatt. Nazareth. I couldn't believe that they actually wanted to charge us to see these no-accounts.
We're the same way with sports. If Johnny Cueto isn't the best pitcher in the National League, doesn't lead the league in wins or winning percentage or ERA or complete games or quality starts or innings pitched or VORP or strikeouts -- well, how well could he have pitched?
The answer is: remarkably well. Johnny Cueto is a candidate for the NL Cy Young. He's not the best candidate, but he threw 217 innings of 2.78 ERA ball, fanned three-and-a-half times as many batters as he walked and provided the Cincinnati Reds with 23 quality starts. Do that for 10 years as they start carving bronze of your likeness in Upstate New York.
There are quite a few pitchers, as it turns out, who fall into this same category. Cole Hamels struck out 216 batters in 215 frames and posted a 3.05 ERA in the run factory in Philadelphia. Gio Gonzalez won 21 games with a 2.89 ERA and whiffed 207 batters in 199 innings. Stephen Strasburg might have been the best pitcher in the NL until the Nats shut him down with more than a month to go. Matt Cain served as ace for the World Champs, going 16-5, 2.79 while Adam Wainwright gave another great performance, 20-11, 2.42.
But this post isn't about those gentlemen, fearsome they may be when standing 60.5 feet away. This is about the top act, the number one best pitcher in the National League. The two hurlers who will battle for that distinction are Clayton Kershaw and R.A. Dickey. A pair as different as Abbot and Costello. The young fireballer against the veteran knuckleballer. The suddenly-flush Dodgers against the cash-strapped Mets. The phenom versus the phenomenon.
But Kershaw and Dickey do have two important things in common. Both pitch in stadiums designed for pitching stats and both made hitters mutter this season.
Kershaw's peformance looks like this:
14-9, 2.53 in 228 innings and 25 quality starts. He struck out a batter an inning with a 3.63 K/BB ratio.
Dickey was even better:
20-6, 2.73 in 234 innings and 27 quality starts. He struck out not quite a batter an innings with a 4.26 K/BB ratio.
In fact, although Kershaw posted the league's lowest ERA, Dickey is first in innings, strikeouts, K/BB ratio, complete games, and quality starts among top Cy Young candidates. He also throws that groovy speed-knuckler and offers sportswriters the best opportunity to write about perseverance and redemption, and to weave a heart-tugging tale in which the good guy finishes first, Durocher be damned.
You could certainly make a case for Kershaw and for several others as well. But Dickey is the best choice not only because we want him to be, but also because while Kershaw logged two-thirds of his innings in the Ravine and performed significantly less brilliantly away from home, Dickey proved he was not a Citi Field Phenomenon. At 10-3, 2.90 with a better K/BB record on the road, Dickey was the best pitcher in the NL no matter where he performed.
Playoff Narratives and the Analysts Who Love Them
Sweeps are like the end of summer vacation: they leave a void in our lives that we must fill. With the 2012 Major League Baseball season braking prematurely, analysts are racing to explain a universe that suddenly makes no sense.
Here are some narratives you might hear about the teams and individuals who defied the laws of physics during the playoffs:
Narrative 1: Pablo Sandoval's two blasts off All-World Justin Verlander set the tone for the World Series and forced the Tigers to panic in Game 2. Sandoval deserves the MVP just for that, the same way Kirk Gibson's one at-bat for the Dodgers in the 1988 World Series did.
Narrative's Attractiveness: Provides a plausible explanation for two unfathomable circumstances: 1. how two evenly-matched teams end up in a sweep and 2. why Detroit got shut out twice.
Narrative's Flaw: Baseball players and managers aren't fans or media. They don't panic after one game. They play 162-game seasons and understand the ebbs and flows. They don't rush to explain everything; they just go out the next day and play. Jim Leyland certainly doesn't panic. His alternate theory -- "that's baseball" -- demonstrates it.
Narrative 2: The five-day hiatus between the end of the ALCS and the beginning of the World Series made Detroit rusty.
Narrative's Attractiveness: Explains why the Tigers scored six runs in four World Series games after destroying the Yankees. By inference, blames ARod for the loss, keeps universe in equilibrium.
Narrative's Flaw: After playing 171 games over six-and-a-half months, a five-day break made them rusty? That is some rapid oxidation. A non-galvanized iron nail dipped in salt water takes eight days to rust through, and it isn't playing simulated games against a local college team. The rust theory also doesn't explain what happened after Game One, or why Detroit's fielding -- its soft, white underbelly all season -- was pretty sharp for four games.
Narrative 3: The Giants have won two of the last three World Series because they're high character guys who play together as a team. They're not the most talented or the best, but they have each other's backs.
Narrative's Attractiveness: Coaxes a tear from our eye and provides hope that righteousness can triumph.
Narrative's Flaw: Isn't it amazing how you never hear this explanation before a team wins it all? Another problem with this theory: Brian Wilson.
Narrative 4: Brian Sabean didn't look at Marco Scutaro's slugging percentage or Wins Against Replacement when he picked him up at the trade deadline. He was looking for a high-character professional who could sacrifice and steal and provide a steadying influence on the infield. (I actually heard this from a stellar play-by-play man.)
Narrative's Attractiveness: Explains how a lifetime .276/.340/.391 hitter becomes the team's MVP for 61 regular season games and 16 playoff games. Also reminds us what a jerk Matt Holliday is. Takes a stab at the stat guys who seem to be winning all the arguments.
Narrative's Flaw: Marco Scutaro wasn't valuable to the Giants because he bunted and acted like a professional. He was valuable because he hit .356/.385/.473 with good infield defense before he got hot in the post-season. No one would be talking about him if he won the Lady Byng Trophy while hitting .276/.340/.391 and sacrificing.
Narrative 5: The Giants played a little better and got a couple of breaks over four games. The Tigers' top-heavy lineup was dependent on Fielder and Cabrera hitting. Who knows what impact playing in miserable conditions has on people accustomed to performing when it's warm and dry?
Narrative's Attractiveness: There is nothing attractive about this narrative.
Narrative's Flaw: It is not spiritual. It fails to pay homage to grit and determination. It fails to link winning the championship with superior character. It makes it sound as if the World Series doesn't prove anything. Stop saying this! Stop it! Stop!
28 October 2012
Surprising Chokenicity or Super Clutchanism?
If you're one of those who paddle the choke/clutch canoe, you're bailing water right now.
Until a few days ago, the narrative was simple: the Yankees choked and Tigers were clutch. Pinstripers entered the batting icebox together at the start of the ALCS, leading to historically low averages and run production in four games against Detroit.
Now in the first three games of the World Series, the Tigers' lineup has switched the clutch switch to choke. Shut out twice all season, they've doubled that total in the last two games.
Wait, what? The Tigers were clutch in Game Five against Oakland and then for four games against New York. And now they've suddenly turned to Jello? Those clutch pills wore off fast!
Oh, but maybe the Giants are even clutchier. With a foot on their necks in the NLDS against Cincinnati, they took three straight for the series win. Flailing against the Cardinals, they reprised the feat to earn a World Series berth. So while the Tigers are clutch, the Giants are Super Clutch, and by comparison Detroit is a choker. But against the Double-Secret Chokers in New York, the Tigers looked clutch.
Of course, none of this explains how a clutch team like the Giants gets down in the first place 2-0 in a five-game post-season series or 3-1 in a seven-game series. Isn't that a little chokey? Doesn't that suggest some pre-clutchy chokiness on the part of San Francisco? Does choking nearly to the point of strangulation before winning suggest Pseudoclutchiness, or Extra Clutchosity with a Cherry on Top?
Also, how could the Yankees be World Class Chokers when Mr. Clutch of All Time himself is their captain. Is their Two-Hands-Around-the-Throat-Chokerism so great that even the mighty King Clutch is no match for it? I need someone to explain this to me. I lost the rulebook.
I have a wacko friend who suggested this other outlandish theory that I mention here just for giggles and, like, knowledge. He says the Yankee lost because their bats went through a four-game cold spell, just as even the best teams do from time-to-time. He says the Tigers, after a five-day layoff (that's another meme that someone will have to explain to me: professional baseball players lose all their skills from Monday to Saturday? Wow!) and with a top-heavy lineup (can you say Avisail Garcia, .319 SLG in 23 MLB games?) have scuffled against a good pitching staff and lost three games. That's not shocking, he says, considering Detroit lost three straight 11 times over the course of the season.
Ha! What a knucklehead! Randomness and luck are no basis for settling a world championship. We need a plausible narrative to explain the inexplicable, even if it's transparent rubbish. We're sticking with clutchism and chokefulness.
Unless, of course, Detroit storms back to tie the Series. Then we create a whole new narrative. Giant Chokers!
25 October 2012
Third Base Coach Strikes Out
Game 2 of the World Series, Detroit's Prince Fielder on first and Delmon Young at the plate. Young tags one down the right field line against San Fran's Madison Bumgarner. The ball rolls over the right field bullpen as Fielder waddles to third.
How big a hairball did third base coach Gene Lamont cough up by sending Fielder home? The numbers paint a grim picture. (Warning: innumerates should shield their eyes.)
As Cecil's kid was reaching the corner base, Young was pulling into second with none out. Left there, on average, the Tigers could be expected to score a run 84% of the time. On average, they would score 2.017 runs. (Of course, these are averages, and don't take into account the aptitude of pitcher Doug Fister or the following batters Jhonny Peralta, Avrail Garcia and Gerald Laird. Presumably, Fister's edge would lower all these numbers a bit.)
Had Fielder lumbered under Buster Posey's tag at the plate, Detroit would have made certain the plating of one run, and with a man on second and none out, still be on course to score another 1.165 runs on average. In other words, on average, the Giants would have hiked the likelihood of scoring at all from 84% to 100% and tweaked their expected yield from 2.017 runs to 2.165 runs. Meh.
How about the risk? Getting Fielder thrown out slashed Detroit's expected run yield by two-thirds to .708 and the odds of scoring at all with a man on second and one out to 41%. In other words, the downside was losing two thirds of the run expectancy and chopping the odds of scoring anything in half.
(You can start reading again if you've been cowering under the adding machine.)
Put more bluntly: Fielder was probably going to score anyway, so creating a contested play at the plate offered little gain. Getting him thrown out was likely to ruin the inning. And that's in fact how it turned out.
If you think that's a fair risk/reward, every Las Vegas hotel would like to offer you a free room and complimentary drinks. Maybe they'll give Gene Lamont a call.
How big a hairball did third base coach Gene Lamont cough up by sending Fielder home? The numbers paint a grim picture. (Warning: innumerates should shield their eyes.)
As Cecil's kid was reaching the corner base, Young was pulling into second with none out. Left there, on average, the Tigers could be expected to score a run 84% of the time. On average, they would score 2.017 runs. (Of course, these are averages, and don't take into account the aptitude of pitcher Doug Fister or the following batters Jhonny Peralta, Avrail Garcia and Gerald Laird. Presumably, Fister's edge would lower all these numbers a bit.)
Had Fielder lumbered under Buster Posey's tag at the plate, Detroit would have made certain the plating of one run, and with a man on second and none out, still be on course to score another 1.165 runs on average. In other words, on average, the Giants would have hiked the likelihood of scoring at all from 84% to 100% and tweaked their expected yield from 2.017 runs to 2.165 runs. Meh.
How about the risk? Getting Fielder thrown out slashed Detroit's expected run yield by two-thirds to .708 and the odds of scoring at all with a man on second and one out to 41%. In other words, the downside was losing two thirds of the run expectancy and chopping the odds of scoring anything in half.
(You can start reading again if you've been cowering under the adding machine.)
Put more bluntly: Fielder was probably going to score anyway, so creating a contested play at the plate offered little gain. Getting him thrown out was likely to ruin the inning. And that's in fact how it turned out.
If you think that's a fair risk/reward, every Las Vegas hotel would like to offer you a free room and complimentary drinks. Maybe they'll give Gene Lamont a call.
19 October 2012
The Worst Performance Ever
So thin at pitching that they welcomed back a retired 40-year-old and signed a 37-year-old free agent pursued by few else, so riddled with injuries that they grasped mid-season at a punchless 39-year-old with a .642 OPS and relied on a menagerie of long-in-the-tooth backups to staff the outfield and DH spots, so aged and lumbering without their leadoff sparkplug all season that they swiped just 93 bases, the New York Yankees crumbled in 2012...
...to the best record in the American League over 162 games despite playing in baseball's toughest division, then stole two close victories over the best one-run team in MLB history to earn an opportunity to play for the league championship.
Their lineup was so patchwork, decrepit and anemic that it lead the AL in on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs and scored the second most runs in the game. Absent the greatest closer known to humankind, and denied their ace for nearly a month, they produced the fifth best ERA in the league, nine percent above average.
And two games later they were being booed by their own spoiled fans.
For eight games of the playoffs (they tallied seven times in their Game One win over the Orioles), Swiss cheese bats transformed the Yankee season from an accomplishment to an obscenity. A string of obscenities, if Twitter is any indication. The sports media is now brokering a deal to send ARod to Libya for a de-commisioned Scud missle and forty-three dollars of salary relief. This despite the fact that he produced 21 runs more offense than a replacement player while struggling with injuries and missing 40 games.
Yankee fandom is also actively seeking a managerial replacement today -- I hear Bobby Valentine's available; so's Bill Cowher -- because Joe Girardi merely steered his tattered club to regular season supremacy. That he eventually stopped rolling sevens in the crapshoot known as the playoffs apparently makes him guillotine fodder in NY.
Pity Max Scherzer. According to the predominant narrative, the Tiger K-machine who won 16 games and held opponents to 3.74 earned runs per nine authored his five-and-two-thirds innings of two-hit, 10-strikeout ball under the pseudonym Yankees Suck, and as such, he gets no credit. Ditto Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez.
Here's another narrative, the one Jim Leyland subscribes to: the Tigers made good pitches to the Yankees just when they were struggling at the plate. That combination led to more zeroes than a Japanese air museum, and a Detroit sweep. Whether ARod, Cano, Granderson, et. al will return next year, despite their advancing years, with a slightly altered supporting cast to make another run at glory, or whether the brass will take a step back to secure the post-Jeter/Rivera/Teixeira future is known only to Brian Cashman, and maybe not even to him. We could soon see the Yankees and Red Sox in simultaneous rebuild mode.
Or the Yankees will again be the best team in the AL. But who cares about that when four games can unravel it all?
...to the best record in the American League over 162 games despite playing in baseball's toughest division, then stole two close victories over the best one-run team in MLB history to earn an opportunity to play for the league championship.
Their lineup was so patchwork, decrepit and anemic that it lead the AL in on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs and scored the second most runs in the game. Absent the greatest closer known to humankind, and denied their ace for nearly a month, they produced the fifth best ERA in the league, nine percent above average.
And two games later they were being booed by their own spoiled fans.
For eight games of the playoffs (they tallied seven times in their Game One win over the Orioles), Swiss cheese bats transformed the Yankee season from an accomplishment to an obscenity. A string of obscenities, if Twitter is any indication. The sports media is now brokering a deal to send ARod to Libya for a de-commisioned Scud missle and forty-three dollars of salary relief. This despite the fact that he produced 21 runs more offense than a replacement player while struggling with injuries and missing 40 games.
Yankee fandom is also actively seeking a managerial replacement today -- I hear Bobby Valentine's available; so's Bill Cowher -- because Joe Girardi merely steered his tattered club to regular season supremacy. That he eventually stopped rolling sevens in the crapshoot known as the playoffs apparently makes him guillotine fodder in NY.
Pity Max Scherzer. According to the predominant narrative, the Tiger K-machine who won 16 games and held opponents to 3.74 earned runs per nine authored his five-and-two-thirds innings of two-hit, 10-strikeout ball under the pseudonym Yankees Suck, and as such, he gets no credit. Ditto Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez.
Here's another narrative, the one Jim Leyland subscribes to: the Tigers made good pitches to the Yankees just when they were struggling at the plate. That combination led to more zeroes than a Japanese air museum, and a Detroit sweep. Whether ARod, Cano, Granderson, et. al will return next year, despite their advancing years, with a slightly altered supporting cast to make another run at glory, or whether the brass will take a step back to secure the post-Jeter/Rivera/Teixeira future is known only to Brian Cashman, and maybe not even to him. We could soon see the Yankees and Red Sox in simultaneous rebuild mode.
Or the Yankees will again be the best team in the AL. But who cares about that when four games can unravel it all?
15 October 2012
Reports of Their Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
Woe are the Yankees, doomed to oblivion by home futility before unsold sections, the excavation of their captain, the looming Hurler from Hell and a lineup sucking wind through a toothpick. Their fans, conditioned to World Series entitlement, are tearing out hair and rending garments.
The end is nigh.
Sure, but...
True, Derek Jeter, a bronze bust-in-waiting and several wins a year better than a replacement level player like Eduardo Nunez, will watch in a cast.
True, three of the next five games are in Detroit, and two of them will be pitched for the Tigers by the baddest thrower on Planet Earth.
True, the middle of the order is waving at distant pitches -- in the dirt, around their chest, in the visiting dugout. Nick Swisher is 4-for-26. Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-23 with 12 strikeouts. Curtis Granderson is 3-for-26. And for you momentum fans, Robinson Cano entered the playoffs hitting .615/.628/1.026 in his last nine games. In the seven since, he's 0-for-26.
Things look bleak.
But baseball is a fickle game. Justin Verlander gets strafed now and then. Guys break 0-for-26 skids with multi-homer games. Whole lineups slump together and then revive as one. Two wins -- one, two -- change everything. Then suddenly home field has returned. The crowds come back. The other team's on its heels. And CC takes the ball.
The modern era of Yankee dominance began in 1996 when the post-Mattingly Bombers met the defending champ Braves in the Fall Classic and got hosed by Maddux and Glavine in the first two games. Then they came back to win the Series in six. They won again in '98, '99 and '00, won the AL in '01 and '03 and took the championship again in '09.
More recently, like last week, the Giants dropped a pair at home to the Reds and came back to sweep a trio of road games to advance to the NLCS. It can happen.
New York remains the best team still standing, wobbly though they've been. That lineup can't remain unhinged forever. Abandon hope all ye who enter here? Okay, unless they win Tuesday.
The end is nigh.
Sure, but...
True, Derek Jeter, a bronze bust-in-waiting and several wins a year better than a replacement level player like Eduardo Nunez, will watch in a cast.
True, three of the next five games are in Detroit, and two of them will be pitched for the Tigers by the baddest thrower on Planet Earth.
True, the middle of the order is waving at distant pitches -- in the dirt, around their chest, in the visiting dugout. Nick Swisher is 4-for-26. Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-23 with 12 strikeouts. Curtis Granderson is 3-for-26. And for you momentum fans, Robinson Cano entered the playoffs hitting .615/.628/1.026 in his last nine games. In the seven since, he's 0-for-26.
Things look bleak.
But baseball is a fickle game. Justin Verlander gets strafed now and then. Guys break 0-for-26 skids with multi-homer games. Whole lineups slump together and then revive as one. Two wins -- one, two -- change everything. Then suddenly home field has returned. The crowds come back. The other team's on its heels. And CC takes the ball.
The modern era of Yankee dominance began in 1996 when the post-Mattingly Bombers met the defending champ Braves in the Fall Classic and got hosed by Maddux and Glavine in the first two games. Then they came back to win the Series in six. They won again in '98, '99 and '00, won the AL in '01 and '03 and took the championship again in '09.
More recently, like last week, the Giants dropped a pair at home to the Reds and came back to sweep a trio of road games to advance to the NLCS. It can happen.
New York remains the best team still standing, wobbly though they've been. That lineup can't remain unhinged forever. Abandon hope all ye who enter here? Okay, unless they win Tuesday.
13 October 2012
Meet the New Boss; Same As the Old Boss
Q. What do you get when you put the worst defense behind the best pitcher?
A. Another Cy Young award.
That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.
The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.
Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.
All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).
In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.
In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.
A. Another Cy Young award.
That, in a nutshell, is Justin Verlander's 2012, another data point in his developing Hall of Fame resume. Prior to the season, I wrote that Roy Halladay remained baseball's best moundsman until he was dethroned. Consider the coup complete.
The Tigers without Verlander don't only fail to win their division or make the playoffs, they struggle to win half their games. Verlander was not only the best pitcher in the American League this year, he led the Majors in innings pitched, which means we was the best, the most, and consequently he rated first in baseball in pitcher value over replacement player. He placed second in the league in ERA despite a no-glove infield, second in WHIP and strikeout-walk ratio, and first in strikeouts, complete games, shutouts and quality starts.
Like the Venus de Milo, the numbers only represent part of the story. Justin Verlander is the unquestioned leader of the Tigers. He wants the ball every fifth day and he considers relief pitching a sign of weakness to be avoided. For the first half of the season, he was Detroit's only reliable arm. He's the best pitcher in the AL once again, and once again it isn't close.
All of which serves to overshadow the wonderful seasons posted by Tampa Bay's David Price (20-5, 2.56 in 211 innings, 25 quality starts and 205 strikeouts); the White Sox's Chris Sale (17-8, 3.05 in his first year as a starter, with 192 strikeouts in 192 innings); Seattle's Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 for an offensively-null team and 223 strikeouts in 232 innings); Anaheim's Jered Weaver (20-5, 2.81 and leading the league in WHIP in 189 innings and 21 quality starts) and Yankee CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38 in 200 innings of work in an offensive-friendly park).
In particular, it obscures the remarkable accomplishments of Jered Weaver in his still young career. The 6'7" Californian is now 102-52, 3.24 lifetime, and having just turned 30, there's plenty left in that right arm. In seven seasons, he's pitched to ERAs below 3.10 four times, with 20+ quality starts each of the past four seasons. Not viewed as an ace until recently, Weaver has earned his third straight top-5 Cy Young finish this year.
In the next post, I'll tell you whether R.A. Dickey or Clayton Kershaw should win the NL Cy Young award.
The Greatest Game: A Game of Failure
The outcomes not withstanding, this has been a scintillating post-season. As a Nationals fan, a Yankee-hater and a guy who's sick of the Cardinals winning in the playoffs after sneaking in, it's been heart-breaking.
In eight days, we've enjoyed six sudden death games -- two play-ins and four Game 5s. We watched two teams rebound from 0-2 deficits. We've witnessed one walk-off after another.
Well, you've witnessed it. I have over-the-air TV.
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If you were to compile a team from among the best players on the Oakland A's and Detroit Tigers, you would have . . . the Detroit Tigers.
If you were to compile a team from among the best players on the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, you would have . . . the New York Yankees.
So although the A's and O's combined for a better regular season record than the Tigers and Yankees, and although each employed magic dust and bottled lightning to reach the post-season, it's not surprising that the latter pair has bounced the former from the playoffs, particularly with Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia getting two starts each.
It's worth noting that the Yankees prevailed in their series without contributions from Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and, most famously, Alex Rodriguez, who didn't even sniff the field in the deciding game. The Tigers did likewise while Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder scuffled.
It shows why baseball is the best game of all -- because it's a game of failure. Six of the best practitioners in the world were consistently humbled simultaneously for a week. At least two of them will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
Meanwhile, Detroit's appropriately-maligned starting pitching won the series for them, despite the best efforts of the bullpen to give Oakland a chance. Verlander, Doug Fister, Anibel Sanchez and Max Scherzer strangled the A's over 36 innings, relinquishing just five earned runs.
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In the NL series between the Reds and Giants, the better team outscored their opponent, out-hit them and posted a lower ERA -- but dropped three straight home games and the series. Cincinnati can thank untimely hitting for its demise: the Reds went 3-for-24 with runners in scoring position in the three losses. It's going to be a long winter.
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Inevitably, the Stephen Strasburg chatter has lit up the airwaves. Right or wrong, Nats GM Mike Rizzo knows that his decision was based on a longer time horizon than one post-season. His hope is that sitting Stras pays dividends for 15 years.
It's easy to forget -- 98 regular season wins later -- that the Nats are a year ahead of schedule. They have a long, brilliant run ahead of them. At least that's what I'm trying to console myself with.
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It's important to remember that five- or seven-game playoffs, particularly among reasonably evenly-matched teams, is a total lottery. If having a dominant starter or two is of particular advantage in these formats, and I believe it probably is, that would explain the success of the Cards. They roll out two world-class starters in Wainwright and Carpenter, something they didn't have all season. The other three teams in the tournament have only one ace each -- Verlander, Sabathia and Cain.
In eight days, we've enjoyed six sudden death games -- two play-ins and four Game 5s. We watched two teams rebound from 0-2 deficits. We've witnessed one walk-off after another.
Well, you've witnessed it. I have over-the-air TV.
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If you were to compile a team from among the best players on the Oakland A's and Detroit Tigers, you would have . . . the Detroit Tigers.
If you were to compile a team from among the best players on the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, you would have . . . the New York Yankees.
So although the A's and O's combined for a better regular season record than the Tigers and Yankees, and although each employed magic dust and bottled lightning to reach the post-season, it's not surprising that the latter pair has bounced the former from the playoffs, particularly with Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia getting two starts each.
It's worth noting that the Yankees prevailed in their series without contributions from Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and, most famously, Alex Rodriguez, who didn't even sniff the field in the deciding game. The Tigers did likewise while Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder scuffled.
It shows why baseball is the best game of all -- because it's a game of failure. Six of the best practitioners in the world were consistently humbled simultaneously for a week. At least two of them will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
Meanwhile, Detroit's appropriately-maligned starting pitching won the series for them, despite the best efforts of the bullpen to give Oakland a chance. Verlander, Doug Fister, Anibel Sanchez and Max Scherzer strangled the A's over 36 innings, relinquishing just five earned runs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the NL series between the Reds and Giants, the better team outscored their opponent, out-hit them and posted a lower ERA -- but dropped three straight home games and the series. Cincinnati can thank untimely hitting for its demise: the Reds went 3-for-24 with runners in scoring position in the three losses. It's going to be a long winter.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Inevitably, the Stephen Strasburg chatter has lit up the airwaves. Right or wrong, Nats GM Mike Rizzo knows that his decision was based on a longer time horizon than one post-season. His hope is that sitting Stras pays dividends for 15 years.
It's easy to forget -- 98 regular season wins later -- that the Nats are a year ahead of schedule. They have a long, brilliant run ahead of them. At least that's what I'm trying to console myself with.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's important to remember that five- or seven-game playoffs, particularly among reasonably evenly-matched teams, is a total lottery. If having a dominant starter or two is of particular advantage in these formats, and I believe it probably is, that would explain the success of the Cards. They roll out two world-class starters in Wainwright and Carpenter, something they didn't have all season. The other three teams in the tournament have only one ace each -- Verlander, Sabathia and Cain.
06 October 2012
Encore Performance: Playoff Guarantees
At the risk of falling into the sea while admiring my reflection, I present an encore performance from 2008 that has particular resonance this time of year.
It's easier than writing something new.
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With respect to the playoffs, some guarantees:
1. Baseball "analysts" will predict series outcomes based on which team was hotter in September. Research by Baseball Analysts found that there is absolutely no correlation whatsoever between a team's September record and its playoff performance. Hey, who needs facts when you have opinions to publish!
2. A team that loses game 1 of a five-game series with its ace on the mound will be written off by the baseball media. It helps increase the excitement when they come back to win.
3. A team down 1-0 and facing the other team's ace will be written off, as if the ace is a guaranteed win, even though he went 17-11 on the year.
4. The underdog in a series will take game 1 on the road and the baseball media will pronounce that it has the "momentum." When it loses game 2, the baseball media will announce that the momentum has "shifted," as if it were a paradigm, or a continental shelf.
5. One team's ace will get lit up. Another team's slugger will take the collar twice. The baseball media, now practicing psychiatry, will determine that they "choked" or "felt the pressure" or weren't "clutch."The media will be unable to process the notion that even great players have bad days.
6. Baseball "analysts" will "analyze" an upcoming series by assigning wins and losses according to pitcher and home field, because as we all know, the team at home with the better starting pitcher wins in the playoffs 85% or 90% of the time. Or maybe its 52%, I forget.
7. Once again, some knucklehead will run out the statistic that the winner of game 1 in a five-game series wins the series 75% of the time. Of course, since the average series goes four games, the winner of any game you choose wins the series 75%.
It's easier than writing something new.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the playoffs, some guarantees:
1. Baseball "analysts" will predict series outcomes based on which team was hotter in September. Research by Baseball Analysts found that there is absolutely no correlation whatsoever between a team's September record and its playoff performance. Hey, who needs facts when you have opinions to publish!
2. A team that loses game 1 of a five-game series with its ace on the mound will be written off by the baseball media. It helps increase the excitement when they come back to win.
3. A team down 1-0 and facing the other team's ace will be written off, as if the ace is a guaranteed win, even though he went 17-11 on the year.
4. The underdog in a series will take game 1 on the road and the baseball media will pronounce that it has the "momentum." When it loses game 2, the baseball media will announce that the momentum has "shifted," as if it were a paradigm, or a continental shelf.
5. One team's ace will get lit up. Another team's slugger will take the collar twice. The baseball media, now practicing psychiatry, will determine that they "choked" or "felt the pressure" or weren't "clutch."The media will be unable to process the notion that even great players have bad days.
6. Baseball "analysts" will "analyze" an upcoming series by assigning wins and losses according to pitcher and home field, because as we all know, the team at home with the better starting pitcher wins in the playoffs 85% or 90% of the time. Or maybe its 52%, I forget.
7. Once again, some knucklehead will run out the statistic that the winner of game 1 in a five-game series wins the series 75% of the time. Of course, since the average series goes four games, the winner of any game you choose wins the series 75%.
Forget the Infield Fly
Next time a sports pundit thinks anyone cares about his "prediction" for the playoffs, let the record reflect that:
The Braves had won Kris Medlen's previous 23 starts and were one of the best defensive teams in the Majors. Then, with Medlen on the hill, the homefield edge and the emotion of Chipper's last playoffs, they gakked up three infield gaffes and lost 6-3.
Joe Saunders was 0-6 lifetime at The Ballpark in Arlington with a 9.38 ERA before hurling nearly six innings of one-run ball en route to 5-1 Baltimore win over Texas.
In other words, anyone who offers a prediction about any of the playoff series should stop talking. Before they start.
On a related note, Atlanta should soon be a much kinder community, because everyone at the playoff game last night should be sentenced to community service for their distasteful littering outburst following the umpires' unfortunate infield fly call.
Irrespective of your opinion on the call, it wasn't the reason the Braves lost. Three errors and 12 runners left on base -- most of them on second and third -- were the culprits. It's easy to minimize those mistakes, but consider this: the Cardinals got an extra inning's worth of outs from Braves infielders, even more if you account for the error that came on what appeared to be a double-play ball. The largesse also added three base runners and seven total bases. That's an awful lot to overcome, especially when your team strands three runners on second and four runners on third.
The machine retains most of its parts next season, with the obvious exception of Chipper Jones, leaving Atlanta fans with hope.
It's a different vibe in Dallas, where the local nine coughed up a five game lead with nine to play, fell into the Wild Card, and then suffered a power outage at the plate in their play-in loss. And just like that, the Rangers magically converted the AL's best record into the shortest stay in baseball playoff history.
The Texas partisans gave their Atlanta brethren a run for their money by booing Josh Hamilton after he whiffed again to end an 0-for-4 evening. Because Hamilton only delivered 43 homers and 128 RBIs for the Metroplex this year, and hasn't brought more to the table over the last five years than .306/.362/.548, 142 home runs, four All Star appearances, a couple of Gold Gloves and the franchise's only two World Series appearances, the fair denizens made sure to communicate their annoyance with him.
The Rangers' front office knows better than to sign Hamilton to a mega-millions free agent contract and the fans know that the team knows that. As noted here before, Hamilton is physically and psychologically fragile, unlikely to play many full seasons and probably now entering his baseball dotage. Unless his commitment to charity includes the billionaire owners of baseball teams, he's going to have to search beyond the Rangers for a GM dumb enough to give him the money his numbers alone suggest he's worth.
That's the only major cog coming loose from this wheel, but it's a big one. Nolan Ryan will need to replace that production, and any attempt to do so will probably come from outside the organization. At least he'll have more time to consider the possibilities than he expected.
04 October 2012
Our Funny Valentine . . . and Other Stories
Goodbye Valentine
Hindsight is 20/20, but didn't we all know that Bobby Valentine seemed like an odd choice for a veteran club with a history of success? Frankly, I thought the best manager for the Red Sox was Terry Francona, and if the team had ceased paying attention to him, a Terry Francona dopleganger.
I always assume the front office knows something I don't, but this time, they just made a bad judgment. You know who they should hire to replace Valentine? Terry Francona!
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The Orioles Will Fly South
I'm rooting doubly for the Orioles this post-season because I know that they are a streaking asteroid that will crash to earth next year. Their historic 2012 includes some unsustainable performances. To wit:
1. A 29-9 record in one-run games; 16-2 in extras. Not repeatable.
2. No starting pitching. On career years, the starters still managed just a 61-58 5.03 record, and posted a below-average number of quality starts. The lifetime ERAs of their top five starters are: 4.73, 4.78, 3.25 (this year only), 4.02 and 4.74.
3. Phenomenal relief pitching. Their top five pen-dwellers own 2012 ERAs between 2.28 and 2.64, but in no more than 75 innings. Bullpens are as stable as Amy Winehouse.
Godspeed Ballimer! See you again in 2016.
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Never Argue With An Idiot . . .
At week's start, I knew that Mike Trout was the best MVP candidate, but that a vote for a Triple Crown laureate, though wrong, was defensible.
The brain-addled illogic of the pro-Cabrera arguments have altered my thinking.
How about this one: Cabrera deserves it because his team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't. Let's stuff this turkey carcass in the trash this way: For kicks, we'll assign truth to the provably false notion that one player is responsible for his team's success.
Well then, Trout's team won 89 games; Cabrera's team 88. Advantage Trout.
Trout's team went 8-15 before calling him up, 81-58 after, a .582 winning percentage. Cabrera led his team to a .543 winning percentage. More advantage Trout.
Cabrera's team played in the weakest division in the AL and didn't sew up the division until the White Sox collapsed in the final two weeks. No advantage Cabrera.
Then there's this rat's nest of weak cognition: Cabrera came up big when it mattered at the end; Trout didn't.
It's true that Miggy got hot in the second half and his team finished 16-7 to win the Central. Trout's Angels finished 18-8 until the last two games, when elimination had already whispered in their ear. Their MVP nominee batted .340/.473/.705 in the final two-week sprint to the finish.
Finally, I actually heard this: the SABR types will value their stats and the traditionalists like me value ours. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and that's all I care about.
Isn't it fun when your opponent admits that he's wrong and everyone knows it but him? Austin Jackson led the league in triples (10), Kevin Youklis in HBP (17) and Quintin Berry in SB% (21 without getting caught.) Those are my stats, so maybe one of them should be MVP. Youk!
Just for the record, Baseball-Reference has Trout at 10.7 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 6.9, five spots back. Discounting defense, they have Trout at 8.6 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 7.5, which means their system is pretty generous to both on the defensive side of the ledger. (This is doubly remarkable when you consider that Trout missed the first 23 games of the season.) They also have Trout higher on adjusted OPS (OPS adjusted for ballpark) and 40 points higher on offensive winning percentage. Unlike batting average, home runs and RBIs, these metrics take everything into account.
In short, Mike Trout had a better season than Miguel Cabrera, amazing though Cabrera was with the stick. And that's really the only argument there is.
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Here We Go Again
Baseball's post-season is a lottery, but it does appear as if the Yankees are finally rounding into playoff form. They've got Andy Pettitte healthy, this hour. Mark Teixeira returned from injury last week and promptly belted a homer. And there's some semblance of order in the rotation with Hideki Kuroda shaping up.
Given their home field advantage, they've got to be considered the favorite in the AL.
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Leaving Las Vegas
The NL is much more of a dice roll. I wouldn't let Barak Obama bet Mitt Romney's money on that one.
Hindsight is 20/20, but didn't we all know that Bobby Valentine seemed like an odd choice for a veteran club with a history of success? Frankly, I thought the best manager for the Red Sox was Terry Francona, and if the team had ceased paying attention to him, a Terry Francona dopleganger.
I always assume the front office knows something I don't, but this time, they just made a bad judgment. You know who they should hire to replace Valentine? Terry Francona!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Orioles Will Fly South
I'm rooting doubly for the Orioles this post-season because I know that they are a streaking asteroid that will crash to earth next year. Their historic 2012 includes some unsustainable performances. To wit:
1. A 29-9 record in one-run games; 16-2 in extras. Not repeatable.
2. No starting pitching. On career years, the starters still managed just a 61-58 5.03 record, and posted a below-average number of quality starts. The lifetime ERAs of their top five starters are: 4.73, 4.78, 3.25 (this year only), 4.02 and 4.74.
3. Phenomenal relief pitching. Their top five pen-dwellers own 2012 ERAs between 2.28 and 2.64, but in no more than 75 innings. Bullpens are as stable as Amy Winehouse.
Godspeed Ballimer! See you again in 2016.
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Never Argue With An Idiot . . .
At week's start, I knew that Mike Trout was the best MVP candidate, but that a vote for a Triple Crown laureate, though wrong, was defensible.
The brain-addled illogic of the pro-Cabrera arguments have altered my thinking.
How about this one: Cabrera deserves it because his team made the playoffs and Trout's didn't. Let's stuff this turkey carcass in the trash this way: For kicks, we'll assign truth to the provably false notion that one player is responsible for his team's success.
Well then, Trout's team won 89 games; Cabrera's team 88. Advantage Trout.
Trout's team went 8-15 before calling him up, 81-58 after, a .582 winning percentage. Cabrera led his team to a .543 winning percentage. More advantage Trout.
Cabrera's team played in the weakest division in the AL and didn't sew up the division until the White Sox collapsed in the final two weeks. No advantage Cabrera.
Then there's this rat's nest of weak cognition: Cabrera came up big when it mattered at the end; Trout didn't.
It's true that Miggy got hot in the second half and his team finished 16-7 to win the Central. Trout's Angels finished 18-8 until the last two games, when elimination had already whispered in their ear. Their MVP nominee batted .340/.473/.705 in the final two-week sprint to the finish.
Finally, I actually heard this: the SABR types will value their stats and the traditionalists like me value ours. Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown and that's all I care about.
Isn't it fun when your opponent admits that he's wrong and everyone knows it but him? Austin Jackson led the league in triples (10), Kevin Youklis in HBP (17) and Quintin Berry in SB% (21 without getting caught.) Those are my stats, so maybe one of them should be MVP. Youk!
Just for the record, Baseball-Reference has Trout at 10.7 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 6.9, five spots back. Discounting defense, they have Trout at 8.6 wins above replacement; Cabrera at 7.5, which means their system is pretty generous to both on the defensive side of the ledger. (This is doubly remarkable when you consider that Trout missed the first 23 games of the season.) They also have Trout higher on adjusted OPS (OPS adjusted for ballpark) and 40 points higher on offensive winning percentage. Unlike batting average, home runs and RBIs, these metrics take everything into account.
In short, Mike Trout had a better season than Miguel Cabrera, amazing though Cabrera was with the stick. And that's really the only argument there is.
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Here We Go Again
Baseball's post-season is a lottery, but it does appear as if the Yankees are finally rounding into playoff form. They've got Andy Pettitte healthy, this hour. Mark Teixeira returned from injury last week and promptly belted a homer. And there's some semblance of order in the rotation with Hideki Kuroda shaping up.
Given their home field advantage, they've got to be considered the favorite in the AL.
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Leaving Las Vegas
The NL is much more of a dice roll. I wouldn't let Barak Obama bet Mitt Romney's money on that one.
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