29 July 2013

A Kick In the Shin: The Most Under-rated Player in Baseball

He's a leadoff hitter with a .417 OBP (second in the NL) and plenty of pop too -- 14 homers and 26 doubles/triples. His OPS of .883 is 40% better than average and 10th best in the league. He gets on base even more often -- half the time -- in high leverage situations, like late in close games. 

He's worth four wins to his team at the plate, fifth in the league, and staffs the critical center field position. Not surprisingly, he's third in the league in runs scored, thanks also to a great number three hitter and good cleanup guy.

He's no flash-in-the-pan either: during his nine year career, he's hit .289/.387/.465, 33% above average.

And yet, he wasn't even seriously considered for the All-Star team and isn't on anyone's MVP preview list. You probably don't know anything about him. Shin-soo Choo may be the most under-rated player in Major League Baseball.

It may be that the low-key Korean native has suffered an identity crisis from playing in Cleveland and Cincinnati, two Ohio cities with small Korean populations. It could be that his skills don't light up the BA-HR-RBI stat meter that uneducated baseball fans still use. It could be that teammates like superstar Joey Votto and flashy Brandon Phillips have overshadowed him.

Whatever the reason, Choo would have to be on your short list of MVP candidates so far, along with Votto, David Wright, Buster Posey, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutcheon, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina and Carlos Gomez.


It's worth noting that nowhere near that list is Phillips, the walking highlight reel powered by
joie de vivre and accompanied by a decent stick. But the suggestion by an MLB-employed "analyst" (who shall remain nameless to spare him further embarrassment) that Phillips is the NL MVP so far because of his league-leading RBI total is so utterly out-of-touch that he should be relieved of duties based on that one statement alone. (Ironically, the offending analyst was a reliever when he played ball.)

Phillips led the league in RBIs -- he doesn't anymore -- because Choo and Votto occupy the basepaths before him. Phillips himself is hitting just .261/.313/.403, which, though highly respectable for a second baseman, is below average overall. Not only does he enjoy the most RBI opportunities in the league by a wide margin, he also benefits disproportionately from runners in scoring position. Phillips is a laudable sixth in the league in converting those opportunities, but that's hardly MVP material. He's been worth about a win-and-a-half to the Reds, small potatoes compared to Choo.

It's tempting determine player value by this method:
1. Find an everyday performer on a good team with a high batting average and big home run totals
2. Season with steals and fielding
3. Factor in his position.

That would make us feel like we'd covered the bases. You're likely to find a good player that way, but our tools are so much more refined and thoughtful, and easily available. They help us determine that a quiet guy like Shin-soo Choo is far more valuable than his tweeting, fun-king teammate, Brandon Phillips.

27 July 2013

Nothing From Nothing Leaves Nothing: The Soriano Trade

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'. You gotta have somethin', if you wanna be with me."
Billy Preston, 1975

Reports out of everywhere but the Walterboro Pennysaver say that the Yankees will trade minor league pitcher Corey Black to the Cubs for a return of Alfonso Soriano to pinstripes. New York will pick up the remainder of this year's gargantuan salary and Chicago will cover all of next year's. That means Soriano doesn't count against the Yankees' payroll number when determining the luxury tax in 2014.

The word "blecch" comes to mind. Or perhaps "yuck." Or "blahhhhh." 

The Cubs could have flipped Soriano for some real prospects at the end of last season. Coming off an .821 OPS hitting year with newfound respect in the clubhouse, the 36-year-old Dominican had some value. Sure, he's roadkill in left field, but a weak-hitting AL team could have used him, assuming the Cubs would eat most of the salary.

But at age 37, his walk rate is back in the sewer, he's dipped below average as a hitter at his position and he's losing his wheels. A 70-point decline in OPS with the arrow pointing in the wrong direction has sapped Soriano of much of his trade value. And so the Cubs must pay $18 million for the privilege of watching Corey Black throw minor league middle relief. Baseball Prospectus says he projects as a seventh-inning guy. That's not much return for a player approaching 400 home runs and 300 steals.

The dearth of right-handed hitting in the Bronx has been well documented. Soriano has popped 10 homers in the last month; all of Yankeedom, eight. Righty batters have socked one home run for the Bombers since June 5th.  NYY's right-handed batting roster has the worst OPS in MLB by 30 points. And so on.

This could explain why Soriano might help the Yankees this year, but . . . do what? They have by far outperformed their ability as a team and are less likely to be relevant in October than Anthony Weiner. The injuries, the ARod soap opera, the careers in twilight, the empty farm system -- this team needs to retool, not buy old tools and reuse them.  At age 38 next year, Soriano will cause car wrecks in the field, but on the Yankees, with a plethora of aging DHs, that's where he must play. A team that ought to be cashing in expiring contracts and building for the future has saddled itself with yet another declining veteran.

In sum, this trade is a desperate move by both parties who each seem to have lost an opportunity in the bargain. Neither side sacrificed anything of value, but neither received anything of value either. Billy Preston would be proud.

26 July 2013

Congratulations Brewers!

News item: Woman wearing Ryan Braun jersey at game with "B" and "n" replaced by "F" and "d" forced to cover up the jersey or be removed from stadium.

Congratulations to the Brewers, first MLB team in North Korea.

If This Is Rebuilding, What Happens When They Get Good?

"Nostalgia ain't what it used to be."

Come with us on a journey to yesteryear, when the House of Red Stockings burned nearly to the ground before general fire chief Ben Cherington unleashed a torrent of reality on the franchise. Spraying prospects on the gutted structure he rescued Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto and Josh Beckett and found housing for them in Chavez Ravine.

That was 11 months ago. Today, the House is fully refurbished and gleaming. It boasts the AL's best record thanks to its MLB-pacing offense. How in the name of the Blue Jays and Angels can a shambles so quickly repair while shedding talent?

Is it management genius or just plain good luck that every single regular is parlaying health and promise fulfilled this year? Oldster David Ortiz is doing his Big Papi dance above the 1,000 OPS line. Free agent signings OF Shane Victorino and 1B Mike Napoli are approximately as advertised. Injury-prone incumbents Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are setting the table, swiping bases and even providing some pop. And a bit of fairy dust has stuck to catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, OF Daniel Nava and especially to SS Jose Iglesias, who continues to hit .349 past 200 plate appearances. 

Only 3B Will Middlebrooks, who's lost 217 points off his rookie OPS thanks to ongoing back spasms, has failed to live up to his billing in 2013.

In other words, who needs Gonzalez and Crawford (now both killing it for the Dodgers) when your big disappointment is OF Johnny Gomes, hitting 21 points below is career OPS but keeping the clubhouse loose?*

*I'm a big fat liar: SS Stephen Drew and his .228 BA is the big disappointment, but . . . Jose Iglesias!

The news hasn't been quite so unwaveringly positive on the mound, where closers Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan succumbed to injuries, as did reliever Andrew Miller, and a parade of fifth starters have left manager John Farrell fearing doubleheaders.

But the Footwear have held their own on this front -- middle of the league -- thanks to their starters Clay Buckholz, Felix Doubront, Jon Lester, and John Lackey, who apparently now eschews fried chicken and card games. The arrival of Ryan Dempster rounds out the staff while recently-appointed closer Koji Uehara continues to baffle AL batters with 13K per nine and a 1.59 ERA.

The team's rebirth dovetails nicely with the slamming windows being heard in the Bronx and Toronto. The conventional wisdom was that the Yankees and Saux were in sufficient disrepair in 2013 for the Blue Jays to make their run. It turns out the thought process was correct but the uniforms were in the wrong order. Unless Baltimore can score a big talent in trade, it really does seem as if Boston has "only" to hold off the Rays to win the division.

If you injected New England brass with truth serum, they would have identified 2015 as the date of their next contention. Most of their fat contracts will have expired or gone to Los Angeles by then and their farm is bursting with potential. But the best laid plans . . . and now their challenge is a familiar one: maintain the momentum while cycling in the new talent.

The irony is that a strength going into the season -- a lack of contractual commitments past next year -- could now mean free agent departures from a winning program. The lockup of Dustin Pedroia addresses a big piece of that issue  and it's likely a great baseball stadium, town, region and franchise will be able to keep whoever it wants.

What makes all this especially delicious is how unexpected it is. For a $10 preseason bet in Vegas on a Boston pennant you'd have gotten a good laugh. To wit:

Team Rankings had the Sox in fourth place at 79-83 with a 10% chance of winning the division.
Las Vegas had them opening the season at 30-1 to win the World Series and set the over-under on wins at 79.5.
Bleacher Report listed Boston at 50-1 and named them the 10th worst club in baseball.
Baseball Prospectus generously pegged them at 84 wins, third place and a 17% chance of winning the AL East.

And so on. But baseball is like a box of chocolates. Enjoy unwrapping the next two-and-a-half months.

25 July 2013

Quick Trip Down Pitcher Win Lane

Quick trip down Pitcher Win Lane . . .

Stephen Strasburg authored eight innings of dominance against Pittsburgh, allowing a run on two hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts. He took the loss despite Washington's two-spot in the bottom of the ninth because his relievers got pummeled in the top of the ninth.

Strasburg delivered the best pitching performance of the day. And his record says he failed.

So did Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey, who held the Angels to a run and five hits in six innings. Choker. He should have known his team wouldn't score when he allowed that first-inning run.

In Houston,  Bud Norris and Oakland's A.J. Griffin each allowed three runs in six-and-a-third. Griffin got the win. Norris, no decision. Different results for equal work? Not even.

Griffin's line appears as it does because his bullpen averted further damage in the seventh. Norris's performance was tarnished by reliever Travis Blackley, who allowed a two-run Coco Crisp homer that brought home a Norris holdout from the basepaths.

So the better performance earned a no-decision. The weaker performance earned a win. If by "earned" you mean absolutely nothing like its dictionary definition.

 

23 July 2013

Some Deadline Deals That Would Be Fun

It's that time of the horsehide season when teams earnestly get about chasing a playoff dream or resignedly rendezvous with the reality of a lost season and cash in their expiring contracts and aging veterans for some future value. 

Some clubs do find themselves betwixt and between: either they have the personnel they want but are just snakebit or under-performing -- hello Blue Jays! -- or they think they will be in contention in a year or two when their current roster will still be delivering value. These teams may smooth down some rough edges or flip a particular asset but aren't in full rebuild mode.

Focusing on the first two groups, here are some trade deadline deals that would make the playoff race funner.* 

Cubs trade Matt Garza to the Orioles -- More than any other squad in contention, the Baltimorons would be transformed by a top-of-the-order starter. Garza looks like just that, and Jed Hoyer is looking to deal. I don't know if the Oriole farm system has what the Chicagos need, but I'm taking this from Baltimore's perspective. Besides that, wouldn't it be delicious for Garza to be dealing in critical late-season contests against his old mates from Tampa? (Note: since Garza went to Texas, Baltimore might consider Kyle Lohse, who is nearly as effective as last year but without the gaudy record.)

White Sox trade Alex Rios to the Rangers -- Nolan Ryan is bracing for MLB to play Nelson Cruz's Go To Jail card, so he needs a backup plan right fast. Oakland is a second-half team and there's no guarantee the Wild Cards won't get eaten by the East. Rios is Cruz with less power but more defense. The White Sox are Texas with less winning and more future needs. Poifect.

Mariners trade Kendrys Morales to the A's --  Brandon Moss is the A's first baseman but his 16 home runs are approaching their witching hour. Morales brings added pop and defense to a team that continues to confound. Although he's about all the power the M's have, he'll be gone at year's end, long before Seattle is relevant again.

White Sox trade Jesse Crain to the Red Sox -- Relief pitchers win playoff games. This one needs different color hosiery for that to matter. This would be the perfect time for the Southsiders to deal the righty because he sports an 0.74 ERA and 46 Ks in 36 innings as free agency looms. Unfortunately, he's on the DL with a shoulder strain. Boston needs bullpen help leading up to Koji Uehara with Andrew Baily and Andrew Miller on the pines.

Padres trade Luke Gregerson to the Pirates -- Pittsburgh wants cheap, young players. But non-contenders want to trade expensive veterans. So the Pirates, who really need help in right field, should instead pick up a veteran middle reliever, and the 29-year-old northpaw is as good as it gets. A durable, consistent performer, Gregerson is under team control for two more years. Whether the Bucs' system has any decent hitting prospects for the struggling Priests is the big question in this deal.

Phillies trade Jonathan Papelbon to the Tigers -- It's going to be a quick, painful fall to the basement in Philly before they begin a long, painful recovery. Paying $13 mil for the luxury of a closer is like buying $300 wheel covers for a '74 AMC Pacer. Detroit is championship-focused and would be ready to part with piles of potential for that final piece. Tiger starters have allowed an 86 OPS+ against while relievers have allowed a 109 OPS+ against, meaning batters are hitting 14% below average against Justin Verlander, et. al., and nine percent above average against the bullpen. 

If you're playing the sports book at Vegas, not one of these deals gets you even odds. But they all make sense for both teams (assuming the sellers are satiated by the return.)




*Even more better than simply "fun."  

22 July 2013

Words & Phrases We Should Have Seen In Ryan Braun's "Apology"

Lied
Cheated
Lied Repeatedly
Cheated for Years
Liar 
Cheater
Hypocrite
Disgrace
Embarrassed 
Ashamed
Steroids
Don't Deserve 2011 MVP 
Return 2011 MVP Award
Abject Apology
So Sorry
So Very Sorry
Sanctimonious 
Apologize to Dino Laurenzi Jr.

17 July 2013

All-Star Quality All-Star Observations

Tom Seaver throws like he's nearly 70 but looks like he's not yet 50. I guess you can't nip and tuck your fastball.

Why do we feel compelled to devote so much time to crooning at baseball games? Marc Anthony sings like a girl. Neil Diamond is so over that Huey Lewis and the News laugh at him. 

(In fact, note to Baseball: You're two-for-two with Diamond, if falling flat on your face is your goal. Sweet Caroline [whoa-whoa-whoa] is older than Mariano Rivera. Get the dorky old dude off the field.)

Speaking of Rivera, that was awesome. He and Cano really showed their class at the ASB. Rivera is so genuine. Bravo to Cano for his professionalism in the face of being forced out of the game after two pitches.

Who fed Joe Buck and Tim McCarver their Wheaties? That was the single best broadcast I've heard them do. It was pitch perfect. They called it a pitchers' duel from the start. They kept up with the personnel changes and packaged them in the managers' philosophies. They wove in on-point reflections on the season so far. They captured the changing of the guard without overstating it. And they let the scene speak for itself when Rivera came out. Fox gets my All-Star vote for last night.

It's nice that the bestowers of such things picked Mariano Rivera for the MVP. Let's be honest why he won it: because there was no MVP. Only the final run scored on a hit. No one homered. The shutout required 10 pitchers.

As usual, the AP got it wrong. In its first paragraph, it credited Jose Bautista, JJ Hardy and Jason Kipnis for driving in the game's runs. Two of the three runs scored on outs. Hardy nearly hit into a double-play. The trio went one-for-four.

Am I the only person who noticed how stupid Torii Hunter looked trying to pump up the AL squad before the game?  I mean, besides his teammates? Torii, that #*!@ doesn't work in baseball.

Sal Perez got the Royals' first hit in an All-Star game since Bo Jackson in 1986. That's 27 years ago, before Perez, and about half his All-Star teammates, were born.
 

The seats directly behind home plate were two-thirds empty by the seventh inning. Those are the seats occupied -- until late in the contest -- by rich, well-connected people who don't love baseball but want to be seen. You snot-nosed, mouth-breathing toads -- either honor sporting history or stay the !@#$%^ home. Dickie from Charlotte and Paul from Oakland would've given their left testicles for those tickets.

So now the American League has home field advantage in the World Series. Isn't it great that America gets to see an extra game at the O.Co Coliseum! Just in time for them to burn down that junk pile and let the A's move to San Jose.

And finally, we still have half a season to go. It's shaping up as one for the ages. Is it Thursday yet?

14 July 2013

Groovy Bits of Data Entering the All-Star Break

Alfonso Soriano is poised to become the 14th Major Leaguer to reach 400 homers and 300 steals.

Three-time All-Star Evan Longoria's .870 OPS and superb defense have been worth four wins already this year. He's not an All-Star. He wasn't even in the final fan vote. That's gonna look awfully silly in October.

Rebuilding teams should trade their best relief pitchers, and do it fast. Here's why. 

The Indians liked what they got from CC Sabathia. They liked what they got from Cliff Lee. So this week called up hurler C.C. Lee. I wonder if he's a black-white skinny-fat guy.

Carlos Beltran is six home runs from passing Lance Berkman for fourth place on the all-time home run list for switch hitters. Mickey Mantle, Eddie Murray, Chipper Jones make for a Hall of a peer group. Beltran has a Rookie of the Year, eight All-Star berths, four Gold Gloves, and lifetime slash stats of .283/.360/.498. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system has him two points shy of the 70.8 Jaws score to be a Hall of Famer. But that doesn't count his 151 post-season plate appearances of .363/.470/.782. Another year or two of even decent play seals the deal -- if it's not already done. 

Among all the testaments to Matt Harvey's greatness, no one has stolen a base on him.

Miguel Cabrera is the first player ever to enter the All-Star break with 30 homers and 90 RBIs.* Of course, he won't have an All-Star break.

*Chris Davis is the second.

The White Sox' Chris Sale has struck out more batters, walked fewer, allowed fewer home runs and lowered his ERA compared to last year. He was 10-2 then; he's 6-8 now.

David Ortiz, the new DH hit king, has three triples this year and two stolen bases. Projecting that out, he'll be Jacoby Ellsbury in three years.

You think the Yankees would be better off without Alex Rodriguez? Yankee third basemen are hitting .227/.288/.310 with four home runs this season in his stead.

Tyler Moore isn't just a weak-fielding first baseman for the Nationals. He's used up 113 plate appearances batting .151/.195/.283. He's cost the Nats a win in just 1/6th of a season.

Batters hitting in the #6 spot in the order are batting .094 against Matt Harvey and have struck out 15 times to one walk. 

Atlanta's substitute outfielders Jose Constanza, Reed Johnson and Joey Terdoslavich got seven hits in 11 at bats in a 5-2 win against the Reds today. I think I saw pigs fly.
 
Astros starter Phil Humber has given up 38 runs in 36 innings this year, walked 15 batters and struck out 20. He has a 9.59 ERA and a perfect game.

Baseball Musings' David Pinto calculates the odds of Chris Davis reaching 61 home runs at 3.8%. He pegs the odds of passing 61 at 1.9%.

13 July 2013

Phinished Phillies Phacing a CatAstroPhe

Following their World Series appearance in 2005 (a sweep at the hands of the White Sox) management of the Houston Astros decided that denial would be an appropriate strategy for the future. 

So, acting as if Jeff Bagwell hadn't just retired, Craig Biggio hadn't turned to jelly at age 40 and the lineup's black holes (can you say Brad Ausmus and his 64 OPS+ in Houston?) didn't exist, management embarked on a concerted effort to be respectable over the next several years. They traded away many bits of their future to acquire post-prime veterans who could help them continue finishing around the middle of the pack.

The strategy worked -- to the extent that the team finished above .500 twice between '06 and '10 without ever losing 90 games, and Biggio retired an Astro with 3,000 hits on his resume.

Those results came at the expense of draft classes rated F, C and F by Baseball America, in part because Houston brass refused to invest in expensive signees. The Astros also passed up opportunities to trade valuable chips like Carlos Lee while they could still bring something of future value in return.

Inevitably, the team deteriorated and the future slipped past a distant horizon. After a 2011 season in which the team slipped to 106 losses, Jim Crane bought the franchise and fired GM Ed Wade and president Tal Smith. His new management team belatedly liquidated the talent en route to full-rebuild mode. Two more years of on-field misery have followed as the fans await the delayed emergence of a new crop of stars.

Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro had to be watching all this but he was apparently not taking notes. Today, Amaro is mouthing Wade's words from the end of the Astros' relevance. With his aging and ailing Phils now a game under .500 over the last 18 months, Amaro has been heard contemplating whom he'll acquire for a stretch run and blaming Ryan Howard's declining performance on a lack of desire.

Many screens have been filled blasting Amaro for his blindness, stubbornness and/or disorinetation from reality, though I'm inclined to think it's more cognitive dissonance: he signed Howard, Utley, Rollins, et. al. to their untenable contracts and can't admit they've gone bad. The Phillies are in '09 Astros mode and have only two viable options: rebuild for the future now when they can get key pieces back for the future or wait a couple of years too long and fall into total disrepair.

Think about how much some of their antiques might fetch on the Baseball Roadshow. If they're willing to eat money, Philadelphia can flip Chase Utley, Michael Young and Cliff Lee  -- all 34 or over -- to contenders for significant returns of youth. Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz could net more modest benefits. Were Amaro to test the fans' limits, he could dangle All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon before the likes of Detroit and watch them wet their pants. Who needs a closer when there's nothing to close?

The point here is that the Phils must recognize what's obvious -- they're not contending this year and they need to invest in the future. Mediocrity in defense of respectability is no virtue; extreme measures in pursuit of pennants is no vice.  The longer the Phillies wait to make that investment, the less they'll get for it.

11 July 2013

Out-Puiging Yasiel

In his 126 plate appearances of 2013, the young Latino has rocked a .409 batting average for the Dodgers with a .736 slugging percentage. He wins with his feet and his defense too, flashing a catapult when runners are foolish enough to test his arm. His arrival in the lineup has coincided with big blue rejuvenation that now puts L.A. at .500, just 1.5 games out of first place.

But nobody's talking about Hanley Ramirez.

The 29-year-old shortstop is reminding baseball fans what stoked Marlin fans from '06-'10. Returning from thumb surgery at season's start and a hamstring injury in May, Ramirez has out-Puig'ed Yasiel and is now leading the team in Wins Against Replacement in just 36 games. 

It's a tribute to Puig that he could make all the HanRam controversy evaporate. After posting an MVP-contending .313/.385/.521 line with 196 steals in his first five years, Ramirez lost his mojo in '11 and '12. He appears to have rediscovered it over the last calendar year, during which he is hitting at career norms. If he sustains it, he'll be back in the conversation as best shortstop in the world.

The Dodgers are smack-dab in the NL West race thanks in large part to Puig and Ramirez, and they'll need the pair's continued aptitude -- though not necessarily at such extremes -- to remain in the hunt. A full year of this and the Cuban sensation won't be enough to prevent us from noticing that Hanley Ramirez is back.

07 July 2013

Fun With Conventional Wisdom

Braindrizzling should pay royalties to the Associated Press for all the knee-slapping material it provides. Let's take a spin around the Majors AP-style, which is to say, in the style of the purveyors of conventional wisdom.

Jason Heyward hit a three-run homer to lead an Atlanta offense that scored in all but two innings.

Heyward's blast came with the Braves leading 7-1 in the seventh inning, having already blitzed Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick. He didn't lead the Atlanta offense to anything they hadn't already achieved. Perhaps Dan Uggla's two-run smash in the second inning could have been described as "leading" the offense.

Jonathan Lucroy homered and Yovanni Gallardo scattered six hits over six innings while adding two hits and a pair of runs scored as Milwaukee beat the Mets.

Here's how Gallardo "scattered" six hits: he mixed in three walks, a homer and a double, surrendering four runs in six frames. That's an ERA of 6.00 and fails to attain the modest standard of a quality start. But seven Brewer runs afforded him his seventh "win," and for that Gallardo shares top billing.

Andy Pettitte threw an early pitch exactly where he wanted. Chris Davis launched it over the centerfield wall. Most of his later offerings landed in the right spot and Pettitte stopped the Orioles again.

...Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play? Pettitte also allowed nine base runners and four runs in six-and-two-thirds innings. That's an ERA of 5.40 and also not a quality start, but backed by early runs, Pettitte was credited with a victory.  

We've still got a ways to go.

06 July 2013

The Post I'd Like To Write, But Don't Have The Data To Support

If only I were a Sabremetrician.

If only I had access to big piles of data about older players and their return from injury.

Then I could write this blog post.

The one about how Derek Jeter's career could be effectively over even if he returns from his ankle injury and performs well in August and September, and even beyond. 

(Which reminds me: Jeter tweeted yesterday that he's almost ready to begin his rehab assignment in the Minors. I wonder if Brian Cashman is going to respond by telling Alex Rodriguez to shut the !@#$%^&*! up.)

Somewhere out there is a warehouse of data about how 39-year-olds perform after major injuries that sideline them for eight months, which is how long the Yankee shortstop's been laid up. 

My guess is that it does not bode well, not only because there aren't a whole lot of 39-year-olds performing at a high level to begin with, and not only because those who do generally play more sedentary positions like 1B or DH. Mainly it's because when it comes to 39-year-olds, major injuries never completely heal.

Compounding that, the ankle is the worst joint for a shortstop to injure. Every move on defense is a fast-twitch explosion at the ankle. If we thought "Pastadiving" was Jeter's first name before the injury, it might get shortened to "Past" following his return from injury. In addition, pain will likely accompany sprints around the bases. 

So if playing shortstop and running the bases -- two staples of Jeter's career -- are problematic, what joy will there be for him on the field?

Keep in mind, that's the best case scenario. The worst case is that he can't return at all, or he returns and re-injures the ankle, or gets hurt some other way, or just isn't the Derek Jeter of old --even the one of age 38. 

It's easy to see Jeter gutting it out for a couple of months in 2013 and then concluding he can't make it through a whole season of the pain at age 40. It's not far-fetched to imagine every twinge adding to the argument that he's gotten everything he can out of his career. There's really no reason for him to drag a shell of his talent -- if that's what he becomes -- through another 162-game season to tarnish his legacy and leave a sad, withered image on our minds' retinas, the one many of us have of Willie Mays as a Met.

The Yankee captain has an $8 million player option for next year, so he wouldn't be leaving large sums of money (in baseball superstar terms) on the table if he retired. It's easy to see the Steinbrenners keeping him on the payroll for that sum in another capacity.

So here's the conclusion I believe I'd reach if I had the data: don't bank on Derek Jeter returning to star form again, and don't be surprised if last year's playoffs were effectively the end of his career.

05 July 2013

Weighing In On Yasiel Puig

It's understandable why Jonathan Papelbon and Bruce Bochy feel indignant about Dodger phenom Yasiel Puig being considered for the All-Star game after just 116 plate appearances over 28 games. If Puig is selected for the game he'll displace one of their compadres who has toiled for years in pro ball awaiting his chance to take the field in the Mid-Summer Classic.

(It is worth noting that Papelbon has thrice represented his league after a similar number of plate appearances against him during that season.) 

Fortunately, we don't allow players and coaches to run the sport of baseball. After all, MLB is in the entertainment business, and what could be more entertaining than allowing a meteor to land at Citi Field? Puig, a highly-prized Cuban defector with an awesome backstory, a .440 batting average (and 1.200 OPS) and a diamond gems video collection, is tearing up the Bigs in his first month like no rookie in history except a fella named DiMaggio. 

Puig has wowed with the full spectrum of baseball skills. He hits for power and average, lights up the highlight reel with his defense and motors around the bases. His arrival rejuvenated a moribund Dodger squad, catapulting it from last place to second with 10 wins in 11 games. He's filling the stands and powering up the TV ratings and he's already been worth a pair of wins to L.A., best among Dodger batters in one-third the time.

The fans want to see him in the game. His appearance will goose TV ratings. So yeah, he's an All-Star. We shouldn't expect Papelbon and Bochy to understand. They're not fans, they're not MLB brass, they're not TV executives. They think baseball is about athletics, not entertainment dollars.

Even taking into account their argument, there's good evidence that Puig still deserves a spot. They argue that Puig has yet to demonstrate that he can sustain his pyrotechnics over a full season. But this is not Kevin Maas, a career farmhand who caught fire for a few months when called up, only to sputter thereafter. A gaggle of Major League suitors for Puig's evident talents out of Cuba earned him a $42 million/7-year deal from L.A. before he'd faced a single pitch. The 22-year-old was universally rated the Dodgers' top prospect, ripping through three levels of the Minors in less than a full season with a 1.016 OPS. He employed is muscular 6'3" 215-pound frame to singe Spring Training, hitting safely in more than half his at-bats.

Moreover, based on his short history, Baseball Prospectus projects Puig will continue embarrassing Big League pitching with a .341 bating average the rest of the way. To Papelpon and Bochy's point, that would drag his average for the year down to .369, leaving him with just 5.4 WARP for the season, about what Robinson Cano was worth last year.

In other words, the odds are very good that Yasiel Puig is Joe DiMaggio. What do you think: do you want that guy in the All-Star game?

04 July 2013

What We Know At the Halfway Mark

The old canard says that the teams in first at the All-Star break will win their divisions. Were this true, we could write off the second half of the season. Moneyball would never have been written about a sub-.500 Oakland A's team.

The first half counts for something though. It's introduced us to a few a five-tool phenoms, including a Dodger who has outplayed his higher-paid peers in just one month on the job. It's provided 51 of the 82 wins the Pirates need to reverse the engines on their 20-year suck machine. And it's answered the question "how much addition would be the subtraction from Boston of Bobby Valentine?"

Here's a team-by-team catalog of some of the other things we've learned.

Atlanta Braves -- Excellent pitching combined with three-true-outcomes (Ks, BBs and HRs) is a recipe for success. Also, Justin Upton + B.J. Upton < Kate Upton.
Washington Nationals -- Running into walls is not a recipe for success. Also, maybe some of last year was smoke and mirrors.
Philadelphia Phillies -- They're exactly what we thought they were and they're more of it every day.
New York Mets -- A great manager can keep people happy even when losses outnumber bowel movements.
Miami Marlins -- There's a baseball player named Adeiny Hechavarria.

St. Louis Cardinals -- Never underestimate an organization that loses its best hitter and best pitcher, but still gets better.
Cincinnati Reds -- They're a top contender unless Johnny Cueto gets hurt.
Pittsburgh Pirates -- Great 1-12 pitching outweighs even Clint Barmes at short. They'll break .500 but the playoffs are a stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers -- They're still paying the mortgage on 2011.
Chicago Cubs -- Theo's five-year rebuilding plan is right on schedule. The plan involves four years of pungent odors at Wrigley.

Arizona Diamondbacks -- Gerardo Parra, Paul Goldschmidt and Didi Gregorious are just getting going. Heath Bell is done. 
Colorado Rockies -- They're one starter away from burying the NL West.
San Francisco Giants -- They've become the anti-Giants: all hit and no pitch.
San Diego Padres -- They're upside-down: Chase Headly can't hit. Huston Street, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard can't pitch. Andrew Cashner, Jason Marquis and Evreth Carbrera are carrying the team. Doesn't matter: they're mediocre however you slice it.
L.A. Dodgers -- Buying up players from losing teams doesn't lead to winning. (Duh.)


Texas Rangers -- They're strong on both sides of the ball but without a bench they'll continue to be vulnerable.
Oakland A's -- "You got pitching in my OBP." "You got OBP in my pitching." Rieces Peanut Butter Cup!
Anaheim Angels -- Only 12 more years of Pujols and Hamilton. Worst investments since Enron. Or ARod.
Seattle Mariners -- Thank goodness for Houston.
Houston Astros -- Las Vegas says two chances in five they fail to hit 100 losses.


Detroit Tigers -- We thought they needed a closer when the season began. Turns out what they needed was a closer.
Cleveland Indians -- Even 81 games in you still don't trust them.
Kansas City Royals -- The hallucinations that prompted trading a top prospect for James Shields are now simply nightmares.
Minneota Twins -- The Padres of the American League. It might never get better.
Chicago White Sox -- When a guy batting .198 is your second best hitter, make October vacation plans. They have talent on the mound but Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn struck midnight.


Boston Red Sox -- The old guys still have it -- at least for half a season.
Baltimore Orioles -- The lightning's still in the bottle -- at least another day.
New York Yankees -- The replacements had it again -- for 60 games.
Tamp Bay Rays -- Who needs money when you have Evan Longoria and your team is named for my dad?
Toronto Blue Jays -- The big free agents who didn't have it in Miami, still don't, at least so far.

The narrative's half written. Baseball teams are like rivers -- they're never the same twice. Acquisitions and losses alter dynamics; injuries and recoveries explode expectations; the light bulb goes on for some guys; the engine runs out of coal for others. Let's recognize our All-Stars and then enjoy the second half. We're in for a humdinger. 

02 July 2013

What Happened To Oriole Regression?

After a breakout 2012 in which they won 29 of 35 one-run games, barely outscored their opponents, cobbled together a roster out of chewing gum, duct tape and their entire minor league system -- and won 93 times en route to the Wild Card, everyone paying attention predicted a hard fall for the Baltimore Orioles in 2013.

And so it has come to pass, minus the hard fall. As of the weekend, the O's are in second place in the brutal AL East, 10 games over .500. They have a better run differential than last year and a more normal one-run distribution (12-11) but they are still one of the AL's premier teams.

And they still don't have any starting pitching.

The O's have hit the most home runs in baseball . . . and surrendered the most as well. 

They lead the league in runs scored, they're third in batting average, first in slugging percentage and third in OPS . . and they're next to last in runs allowed and ERA.

Seven of their nine starters have hit above average, with catcher Matt Wieters close enough for a catcher . . . and 36 of their 82 starts have been made by pitchers with ERAs above 5.00. 

Led by Chris Davis's amazing season (201 OPS+) and Manny Machado's startling rookie season (record-breaking doubles pace), the O's are dancing with the Bostons and New Yorks by pounding the horsehide, defending it and squeezing the best pitching out of the key members of their relief corps. Absent a #1 starter (or even a #2 -- Wei-Yin Chen, anyone?) manager Buck Showalter has mixed and matched a sextet of bullpen arms into a 3.42 ERA, 23% better than league average.

The bad news going forward is that the Birds will find it difficult to pry a top starter from this year's also-rans. They lack the cash and the prospects it would take to secure even the middling roster of names purportedly on the trading block. The good news is that if anyone can coax competence out of the arms in their system, Showalter and GM Dan Duquette can. 

Davis will almost certainly cool as the weather heats, but the return of injured second-sacker Brian Roberts and more production from outfielders Nick Markakis and Adam Jones (eight walks all season) will keep the offense in high gear. Their ability to solve or circumvent the pitching woes will determine whether last year's fluke becomes a habit.