29 August 2013

Don't Count Out the Braves

Went to see the Braves nip the Tribe in an inter-league tumble yesterday. I predicted at the outset that the Native Americans would win. Jenius!

Few outside of the deep South give Atlanta much chance of winning a championship even though the rest of the division conceded back when Egypt had a democracy.

The Braves lack a singular talent, a significant home run threat or an ace. The leading talent in the lineup will be sipping dinner through a straw for a month. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran project as the top of the playoff rotation, scaring exactly as many people as the Bolivian navy.

Look deeper, though, and you will see a formidable opponent with baseball's best record.

1. Little weakness in the lineup.
They get production from shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Brian McCan and second-sacker Dan Uggla, where most teams wobble. Eight batters have ripped 10 or more home runs. Without Heyward, the outfield's got one Upton too many, but even so, the Braves rank second in the NL in scoring.

2. A bench thick with quality.
Evan Gattis has popped 15 homers in half a season and plugs holes at catcher and corner outfield. Lefty Jordan Schafer gets aboard and swipes bags as an outfield fill-in or as Heyward's replacement. Ditto for switch-hitter Joey Terdoslavich who owns outfield and first-baseman mitts. 

3. Solid, not flashy, defense.
Atlanta ranks fifth in the Majors in defensive efficiency and what it lacks in outfield bats it makes up for with the gloves.

4. A middle-heavy rotation.
There's no Verlander-Scherzer or Kershaw-Greinke combo here, but even after Tim Hudson's broken ankle they go six deep with quality. #5 starter Alex Wood, a rookie southpaw, sports a 2.27 ERA since his call-up eight starts ago. They have the fifth-best ERA in the senior circuit.

5. Something called the best bullpen in the world.
Craig Kimbrel and his sub-one ERA would end the argument, but throw in Luis Avilan, David Carpenter and Jordan Walden's combined ERA under 2.00 and good luck scoring after the sixth inning.

6. A bye and home-field.
You already know they won't repeat last year's depressing one-game elimination. And the home crowd gets an extra opportunity if a series goes the distance.

Put it all together and you've got a tough out. The Dodgers have been hotter lately and appear to have more overall talent, but sleeping on the Braves would not be the work of a jenius.

27 August 2013

It's OK To Make A Profit

Forbes reported this week that the Houston Astros, last in payroll and last in the standings, are nonetheless the most profitable team in baseball. The anouncement was followed by rending of garments and gnashing of teeth.

Stop it. Right now.

This formula is exactly the reason I severed my decades-long love affair with the Kansas City Royals and took up with the Washington Nationals when they relocated from Montreal. KC's owner, David Glass, was employing the race-to-the-bottom philosophy of his previous organization, Walmart, to keep costs low and profits high, fans be damned.

As many have observed, the 'Stros are paying just one player more than a million dollars -- veteran Eric Bedard at $1.5 mil. They have traded or released the other four players set to earn more than $1 million. Their entire payroll of $21 million is less than the Yankees spend on any one of nine players. And yet they are raking in $99 million this year.

Houston is also on pace to lose 108 games -- the worst record in a decade.

If that were Houston's modus operandi, it would be despicable -- a disaster for Texans and an affront to the game itself. But people have the chicken and egg confused. The Astros' payroll is rock bottom because the team reeks, not the other way around.

When Jim Crane bought the team, he realized that its fruitless pursuit of .500 in the waning days of the Killer-B's had sapped the farm system and saddled the team with a Swiss cheese roster. GM Jeff Luhnow, hired to de-construct and then re-construct the team, has the franchise right on schedule. By jettisoning middling talent at post-arbitration costs he has stocked the system with young talent and left spare change for free agent signings when the time is right.

The result is a team full of young players who are under either total team control or the first year or two of arbitration. Those sufficiently talented to remain on the roster will cash in eventually and those who aren't had an opportunity to play in The Show.

Will this formula work? Ask the Pirates. After nearly two decades of futility, the current administration employed the exact same plan. They too had the highest profits and the lowest payroll a few years ago. How ya like me now?

The Astros have an edge on the Pirates: the Houston market. Their massive TV deal and large market size give ownership more breathing room than they had in Pittsburgh. With the commitment, the plan and the revenue, the only question now is whether Houston baseball ops can develop the players. I'm betting on them to be a force in three or four years.

In the meantime, they have the profits.

23 August 2013

Welcome Back, Ryan Braun!



I deeply regret many of the things I said at the press conference after the arbitrator’s decision in February 2012. At that time, I still didn’t want to believe that I had used a banned substance. I think a combination of feeling self righteous and having a lot of unjustified anger led me to react the way I did. I felt wronged and attacked, but looking back now, I was the one who was wrong.

I am beyond embarrassed that I said what I thought I needed to say to defend my clouded vision of reality. I am just starting the process of trying to understand why I responded the way I did, which I continue to regret. There is no excuse for any of this.
For too long during this process, I convinced myself that I had not done anything wrong. After my interview with MLB in late June of this year, I came to the realization that it was time to come to grips with the truth.

--Ryan Braun

You see? Ryan Braun didn't choose a slash-and-burn strategy to avoid responsibility for cheating. He wasn't purposely lying through his teeth when he hurled accusations at Major League Baseball and a poor courier who already suffered the indignity of having to handle a vial of ballplayer urine.

No, Braun was hallucinating. He imagined he was a virtuous upright citizen while brazenly and falsely accusing others of lying in order to protect himself. He didn't decide to be a cynical, hypocritical prick; it was something that happened to him. 

But he's better now. He's recovered, as from a disease, debilitating and unfortunate, but temporary. He had an epiphany -- can Jewish guys have those? -- exactly coincidental with getting caught red-handed. Swell! Okay? All forgiven now?

Somewhere in Hades, Richard Nixon is indignant. He also cheated and lied about it. But while Nixon lacked the sanctimony, he at least had the decency to suspend himself -- for the rest of his presidential career. He spent the rest of his life attempting to reclaim his legacy but the lead in his obituary was still about Watergate.

Ryan Braun, on the other hand, or perhaps a lesser version of the Ryan Braun who was juicing, will return next year to the Brewers with a contract that will pay him millions of dollars. The Milwaukee faithful, redolent of hope and lacking options -- his contract is guaranteed, so he's playing -- will almost certainly embrace him wholeheartedly. If he helps the Brew Crew contend, they will roar their forgiveness and begin rationalizing their feelings in an explosion of cognitive dissonance.

The rest of us, we are not obliged to such folly. Despise ARod if you must, but your enmity is misplaced. Ryan Braun pointed fingers, Ryan Braun victimized truth-tellers, Ryan Braun smeared his accusers. Lyin' Ryan is the guy who deserves your eternal damnation.

17 August 2013

Journalism 101

Headline in many newspapers and around the InterWebs:

A-Rod Snitched On Other Players, Report Says -- Fox Sports
A Rod Snitched On Ryan Braun

Alex Rodriguez Snitched on Ryan Braun and Other MLB Players
Et cetera. You get the idea.


Except they're all false.

No one has produced a speck of evidence, not a jot, an iota, a scintilla, that Alex Rodriguez did anything. But because we perceive that ARod is an AHole, we don't worry about such considerations.

Then there are the headlines like this:

ARod Camp Leaked Biogenesis Documents Implicating Ryan Braun, Francisco Cervelli
ARod Camp Leaked Docs Implicating Braun -- Associated Press

And so on.

Except they're false.

What these outlets are reporting is that someone else is reporting this. In fact, it's a 60 Minutes report. What's in the 60 Minutes report? We don't know. Who made this claim to 60 Minutes? We don't know. They were reportedly leaked to Yahoo. What does Yahoo say about this? Nothing

In fact, CBS News cites "unnamed sources." Are these unnamed sources knowledgeable and credible? We don't know. The report doesn't actually get aired until Sunday. So CBS has a vested interest in over-stating the case right now. It's called advertising.

Go ahead and read the stories. They contain one sentence about the allegations and six paragraphs of background. Why only one sentence? Because that's all there is.

Maybe ARod really was involved in a reprehensible leaking campaign. Maybe someone speaking for him leaked documents without his knowledge. Maybe someone is lying to CBS for his own reasons. Right now, all we have is a claim by a news organization of an unknown allegation made by an anonymous source without any supporting evidence. 

That's the only truth we've seen.

14 August 2013

The Greatest Pitcher in 100 Years

It's as if we didn't notice Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens pitching in the bigs. One of the greatest of all time is serving it up for a sixth season and and we've managed to allow our attention to be diverted, as if he's a solar eclipse.

While we've all been focused on Pujols and Cabrera, ARod and Jeter, and Verlander and Halladay these past few years, the left-handed Texan in question has the lowest career ERA of any pitcher with 1,000 innings since the Dead Ball Era. That's nearly 100 years of ball. Fire up the superlatives.

The list of pitchers with higher ERAs looks like this: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbel, Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez. Christy Matthewson's lifetime ERA was 35% better than league average. Our protagonist, 44% better.

In six seasons, he's 72-44, 2.64. He's been worth 31 wins to his team, about double the value of Kyle Lohse in seven fewer seasons, and Lohse earns $11 million/year.

That's a lot of clues and yet...you can't for the life of you figure out who it is. At 6'3" 225 it's not like Clayton Kershaw is hiding. He's led the NL in ERA the last three seasons, won the Cy Young Award in 2011, finished second last year and is certain to merit a top-three finish this season. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of hurling even though everyone knows he's an ace.

Were he a rookie today, Kershaw would be blowing up Twitter. The number seven pick of the 2006 draft, he crushed minor league hitters and got to the bigs after 35 starts on the farm. Vin Scully has called his diving curve "public enemy number one," and it's not like his 97-mph heater is Miss Congeniality.

Now, Kershaw pitches half his games in Dodger Stadium, which acts like a fourth outfielder. It's a bit of a stretch to compare him to, say, Pedro, who toiled in a hitter's park partly during the Steroid Era, faced the Yankees three-four times a year and, like Kershaw, sported an ERA 44% below league average after 1000 innings. He also followed that by twirling four of the greatest seasons of all time.

Kerhsaw is just 25 and earns free agent status after the season. Can you say "scajillion?" When he gets it, you'll understand why.

12 August 2013

Here We Go Again

It's happening again. 

Miguel Cabrera is vying again for the Triple Crown, leading baseball in batting average, RBI and trailing only Chris Davis with 35 home runs. He also leads the AL in on base percentage, OPS and runs scored. The future Hall of Famer is undoubtedly the best hitter in the game now that Prince Albert has succumbed to corporeal ravages.

How unusual is Cabrera's accomplishment? He's only the 16th player in 130 years of ball who matched that particular feat in the first place. Taking five of six MVP categories in two consecutive years has been done once, by Jimmy Foxx in 1932-33. Double-X paced the AL with 58 homers and 169 RBI in 1932, but his meager .364 batting average cost him the medal stand. He claimed the crown in 1933 with 48 HR 158 RBI and a .356 BA, then failed to lead in any of those categories the following year.

(Ted Williams swept to the Triple Crown in 1942, then went to war for three years. A year after his return (picking up a W against the Germans), he repeated his dominance along with the league lead in runs, walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. Give him a non-steroid asterisk.)

Cabrera is in rarefied air and it gets even thinner: He hit for the highest batting average in 2011. That leaves him with three batting titles, two home run titles and two RBI titles over three consecutive years if the current pace continues.

That's not the deja vu part of the story, though. In fact, the story isn't even about Miguel Cabrera. It's about the guy who right now has a better case for American League MVP. Mike Trout.

Again.

Mike Trout doesn't carry Miguel Cabrera's stick. His OPS -- on base percentage plus slugging percentage -- is 121 points lower. He doesn't hit for the average (.331 versus .360), get on base as regularly (.425 versus .464) or hit for the same kind of power (20 HR versus 35). But Trout does everything else better.

Trout is fast and Cabrera is...fast for an Abominable Snowman. Trout makes the highlight reel with his glove. Cabrera makes the highlight reel for discovering third base for the first time. Trout staffs the critical middle pasture. Cabrera defaults to third because Prince Fielder is even more cube-shaped than he is.

Sum the column and you get a big chunk of the game where Trout runs circles around Cabrera. The 26 of 30 steals, the base running advantage (e.g., Cabrera has grounded into 14 double plays to Trout's six), the superior defense and the comparison at the plate to center fielders rather than corner infielders gives Trout an edge. 

This isn't really to propose that Trout should be the MVP over Miggy this year. Immature defensive stats can hardly be determinative even if at season's end, which we're not. The gap between the two -- Baseball Reference has Trout at 6.4 wins against replacement and Cabrera at 6.2 -- is too close to end the discussion. 

Still, we're on pace for familiar arguments and, I suspect, a familiar conclusion when the votes are counted.

Again.

09 August 2013

Nothing Certain But Death and Playoff Teams

Why can't you just get it through your head: It's over, it's over now. Yes, you heard me clearly now, I said, it's over." -- Boz Scaggs

While you were busy noticing that the NFL tore its ACL and is out for the season, the Major League Baseball pennant races evaporated. Sorry.

Over the last two weeks, the rich have gotten richer and the struggling middle class has lost ground.

Braves - 14 straight wins
Tigers - 12 straight wins
Rangers - 9 of 10
Pirates - 8 of 10
Dodgers - 15 of 19
----------------------
Yankees - lost 7 of 10
Angels - lost 7 of 10
Phillies - lost 7 of 10
Nats - lost 6 of 10
Dbacks - lost 6 of 10

The result is that, with 50 games left in a season filled with intrigue and mystique, surprises and revelations, breakouts and comebacks, it's largely over but the waiting.

Consider the playoff odds of the teams most likely to see October action, according to Baseball Prospectus:

Tigers - 99.5%
Red Sox - 96%
Rays - 91% 
Rangers 80%
A's - 73%
----------------
Indians - 29%
Orioles - 26% 
No one else with more than 5% (KC)

Braves - 100%
Pirates - 99.5%
Cardinals - 98%
Dodgers - 97%
Reds - 93%
----------------
D'Backs - 12%
No one else with even 2% 

In other words, the NL races are done and only the NL Central division is at issue. (BP gives Pittsburgh the edge.) The nine NL teams with virtually no chance of challenging will get a home version of the game.

There's more to be determined in the AL, with two division races still in play. (Detroit may not have self-government, but it's got the AL Central.) While Cleveland and Baltimore have both shown signs of returning to earth, either is a short winning streak from contention. But that just gets them into the conversation, and neither appears equipped to overtake the teams ahead of them.

We need to be wary of foregone conclusions, of course, but that's not a lot of uncertainty for early August. The Braves have a 15-game cushion. Pittsburgh is 11.5 games clear of the Wild Card. The incumbent World Champs are 12 games under .500, while the two big off-season spenders are a Minor League Astros franchise from occupying last place simultaneously. And that's not even mentioning the consensus best team in baseball, the one with last year's best record. They're all aiming to break even at this point.

Before you wail and rend garments, recall the last few seasons in which the Mets, Braves, Red Sox and Rangers disintegrated in the season's waning days to push Philly, Philly, Tampa and Oakland into the post-season (or in Oakland's case, the division title). Let's hope the lottery known as the playoffs are kinder to us.

06 August 2013

What's Gotten Into the Royals?

With roughly 50 games left in the season, the Kansas City Royals have a better record than the New York Yankees. What is this, 1978?

As recently as June 4, KC was in their usual position, fourth place in the weak AL Central and 10 games under .500. They had fewer hits than Jadeveon Clowney.

A funny thing happened on the way to another high draft pick. Kauffman Stadium celebrated Memorial Day with a George Brett-infusion. The Royals reassigned their hitting coaches and asked Brett to fix the sticks, most notably under-performers Eric Hosmer (.654 OPS) and Mike Moustakas (.570 OPS). 

Brett knows a little something about hitting. His .305/.369/.487 with 665 doubles, 137 triples, 317 homers, 1,596 RBI and 1,583 runs, 13 All-Star Games, seven division titles, two pennants and a World Championship all outrank the entire 2013 Royals starting lineup.

The offense is still softer than Dolly Parton, ranking last in home runs and 12th in OPS in the AL. But that's up a notch since Brett's arrival. Moreover, Hosmer and Moustakas have caught fire, raising their OPS 120 points and 100 points respectively. Since June 4, five days after Brett's arrival, KC is 34-20. 

Fueling the surge is pitching, defense and baserunning. Royal arms have allowed the fewest runs in the AL and lead the league in ERA, paced by two aces and a rock-solid bullpen. Despite mediocre W-L records, "Big Game" James Shields and Ervin Santana have ERAs near 3.00. Santana has delivered 11 quality starts in his last 12 turns. Meanwhile, a septet of relievers has clamped down on the late innings, led by closer Greg Holland, whose 1.67 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 48 frames illustrate his dominance.

The defensive metrics validate what your eyeballs tell you -- KC fielders have their pitchers' backs. Led by no-hit outfielders Lorenzo Cain and David Lough, the team's everyday players have earned more value compared to replacement players with their gloves than with their bats. That's hard to do.

They're also leading baseball with 84 steals in 103 attempts, a laudable 82% success rate. Middle infielders Alcides Escobar, Elliott Johnson and Chris Gets are 33 of 34 on the basepaths.

Can they keep it up? The previews are mixed. On the one hand, they've fairly well beaten up on the league's doormats; for example, they've compiled an 11-3 record against the Twinkles. On the other hand, they've played above .500 ball in every month but May, when they stumbled to a miserable 8-20 record, suggesting that they might really be a reasonably good team. Youth like they have -- (players under 30 have delivered all but eight of their HRs and 35 of their runs scored) -- tends to improve over time, particularly when a Hall of Famer shows them how.

04 August 2013

Finally, A Post on ARod, Biogenesis and Suspension

“When all this stuff is going on in the background and people are finding creative ways to cancel your contract and stuff like that, I think that’s concerning for me, that's concerning for present (players) and I think it should be concerning for future players, as well."
--Alex Rodriguez, American Baseball Player

Think what you like about Alex Rodriguez and the Greek tragedy that has been his life, he at least knows how to send a message.

If myriad reports are correct, Major League Baseball responded to this statement by huffily cutting off negotiations with ARod's many representatives and moving forward with a 200+ game suspension that will invoke the commissioner's prerogative to rule in the "best interest of the game." 

But ARod hasn't hired the nation's least expensive and sophisticated advisers, and the people he has hired know full well that suspension through next year was always MLB's bottom line. Instead, Rodriguez's words were designed to plant a bee in the bonnet of eminently-reasonable union chief Michael Weiner, reminding him that the union disputes the commissioner's claim of unfettered power, which could affect the entire union, and not just the game's number one pariah.

MLBPA Must Contest the Suspension
Rodriguez's legal team knows that any attempt by Bud Selig to claim the right to suspend a player for a full season outside any contractual violation must be contested by the union. If MLB has powerful evidence of steroid or HgH use against ARod, it can suspend him 50 games per the contractual drug agreement. Weiner and the union have made clear that they would not defend any player in violation of that, and in doing so he is echoing the sentiment of most of his members. 

On the other hand, a 2014 suspension, even of the man most reviled by other union members, is a long-term challenge to the union and all the people in the future who will be paying Weiner's not insubstantial salary. If the union lays out the red carpet to Commissioner Bud on this issue it will have set a precedent that it will long regret.

Which Means He'll Play In 2014
Rodriguez knows something else: if the union gets involved, the discovery process will be long, arduous and possibly as embarrassing for baseball as for ARod. (After all, what form of embarrassment has the third baseman left unexplored?) It could extend into 2014, during which Rodriguez will be eligible to play. The earlier ARod gets on the field, the more likely he will be to add to the positive aspects of his career -- i.e., the statistical accumulations -- keeping in mind that he will be approaching his 40th birthday with two surgically repaired hips.

If all of this sounds like a conspiracy, it is a conspiracy to save the newspaper industry, not to mention bolster the late night comedy circuit, 24-hour radio sports talk and the endless argument culture. With Lindsay Lohan and George Zimmerman, ARod has been largely responsible for the continued existence of headline writers nationwide. None of that interests Alex Rodriguez and his minions, of course; their interest lies only in mitigating the long-term effects of his upcoming suspension. And in their high-priced wisdom they have decided that dragging in the rest of the players is the strategy most likely to produce results.

Stay tuned for more headlines -- and more intriguing quotes.

03 August 2013

Why Your Cleanup Hitter Doesn't Matter

The headlines for Derek Jeter's storybook return to the big leagues occasionally veered off into the ludicrous meme of The Captain Rescuing the Yankees. Even most casual fans know that baseball is not basketball, where one transcendent star can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

To put a finer point on it, suppose you were offered a team with stars at catcher, shortstop, third base and two outfield positions, an ace with a 3.22 ERA, a pair of closers with 1.99 and 1.09 ERAs and a set-up guy with a 2.76. That'd be some good team, right?

Welcome to the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, even before Ryan Braun's courageous self-sacrifice. Their lineup of backstop Jonathan Lucroy  (.842 OPS), shortstop Jean Segura (.826 OPS), third baseman Aramis Ramirez (.772 OPS), outfielder Braun (.869 OPS) and MVP candidate Carlos Gomez (.892) in center sounds like a chore for opposing pitchers. (League average OPS is .723.) Yet the Beermen are in the bottom third of the Majors in scoring, due mostly to empty uniforms everywhere else.

For example, Milwaukee has punted first base, where the league average batting line is .265/.342/.430. Relegated to a full helping of Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee gets .212/.238/.368 out of the position. (Yes, that's an OBP of .238, which is worse than Bud Harrelson's lifetime work, and he was a weak-hitting shortstop playing in a run-suppressing ballpark during a low-offense era.) 

Likewise the bench. When Lucroy has needed a one-day break from his squat, understudy Martin Maldonado has contributed just 10 extra base hits, eight walks and a .517 OPS in 154 plate appearances. 

On the hill, Kyle Lohse anchors the rotation with a surprising reprise of his anomalous 2012 season. Lohse's laudable 4-1 K/BB ratio has yielded an ERA 21% better than average. If he can get through six, relievers Burke Badenhop, Brandon Kintzler and Tom Henderson have done a good job closing the door, and KRod was locking it tight before his trade to Baltimore with a 1.09 ERA in 25 innings. Yet Milwaukee sits near the bottom in runs allowed.

The reason is obvious: there isn't much else. The rest of the mound corps has been a mad scramble for adequacy, lowlighted by presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, whose 4.91 ERA is bolstered by the 10% of runs he's allowed being ruled "unearned." Among the parade of hurlers who have started games for the Brewers (11), Johnny Hellweg has lasted just 11 innings in his three starts, but that's been long enough to allow 19 hits, 13 walks and 20 runs (13 earned), an RA of 16.86. (His ERA is a mere 10.97.)

The Sudsmakers do have a team strength -- defensive efficiency -- which is slightly above league average, but not nearly enough to cover the limp bats and weak arms. Despite the convincing individual performances, this team is balanced in its lousiness.

The takeaway: don't judge a team by its big star, its three and four hitters, its ace or its closer. Every MLB contingent boasts a star at those positions. The real differences between October participants and cellar dwellers are the number eight hitter, the fourth starter, the third guy off the bench and the bullpen. It's why Milwaukee is 46-63 despite employing an MVP contender. It also explains why Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson, despite their extreme aptitude at baseball, are not rescuing the Yankees this year.