30 November 2013

Stuffed Turkey of a Hall of Fame Ballot

The Hall of Fame ballot for 2014 has been released, in much the way hounds are released in a wild goose hunt, with 17 legitimate candidates on the list. With only 10 lines on the ballot, voters are going to be doing some triage.


Players on the ballot fall into five categories. The easy two are those who have earned shoo-in status to the Hall and those who merely played with guys who earned shoo-in status. (That's not to say that anyone actually is a shoo-ins; there's no accounting for taste and the ignorance of baseball writers.) We'll call them the "Lou Gehrig" division and the "Chico Ruiz" division. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Kurt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Frank Thomas, Tim Raines and Craig Biggio comprise the former group, about which no further discussion is really necessary. They're Famers.

Names such as Armando Benitez, J.T. Snow, Eric Gagne,  Mike Timlin, Jacque Jones and Richie Sexson populate the list of merely good Major Leaguers. They will have to console themselves with fame, fortune and a boatload of frequent flyer miles.

Next we have the "Pete Rose" division: players whose membership in the Gehrig clan has been revoked because of drug use. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire could almost create their own wing in Cooperstown along with Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson. I would vote for all of these except Palmeiro, who failed a drug test. The rest were so unquestionably spectacular that our suspicions (not to mention a fair bit of evidence) might be overwhelmed the heft of their greatness. It's understandable that voters would exclude all or some of these, though it's not clear what the point of a Hall of Fame without Bonds and Clemens would be.

Then there's the "Sammy Sosa" division, whose members are: Sammy Sosa. Sosa probably took steroids, definitely corked his back and not withstanding all that might be a Hall of Famer. Mix up that witches' brew and there probably won't be much support for his candidacy.

The most taxing decisions concern those players whose numbers don't reflect how we felt about them. This is the "Bobby Grich" division. The advanced stats testify that Alan Trammel was a great-fielding shortstop with a highly respectable .285/.352/.415 slash line, 1200+ runs scored and an MVP season, worth 64 wins against replacement over a 20-year career. Certainly he was a good hitter for a shortstop but most of his career value grades out on the field, about which it's very hard not to be dubious.

Larry Walker hit .313/.400/.525 with 383 home runs and 1311 RBI. He also won Gold Gloves, though the number crunchers can't find any justification for them. On paper, that's a walk-through, but in Coors, there are a lot of questions. In Montreal, Walker was Clark Kent, climbing the corporate ladder slowly but surely with smart reporting and solid management skills. In the thin air of Denver, Walker became Superman, saving the world with his super-strength, flying cape and x-ray vision. In the six years between 1997 and 2002, he posted five amazing seasons, averaging .351/.439/.639. He's credited with 69 wins against replacement, which ordinarily is enough to buy real estate in Cooperstown. It's just that Coors turned Andres Galarraga and Dante Bichette into stars.

By any second-base standards, Jeff Kent was a great hitter. He also wasn't a second baseman. But by first base standards, he was just another guy, posting a .290/.356/.500 line and smacking 377 home runs, including a string of 11 years with 20+ home runs. He knew that his only ticket to the Hall was remaining at the keystone even if his defense was handcuffing his teams. So Kent finished with 57 wins against replacement and a strong argument for inclusion. He makes my ballot with reservations.

On the flip side, Don Mattingly was an awesome hitter until his back began biting into his power. He finished with numbers insufficient for a first baseman to win election, tallying just 41 wins against replacement. Fred McGriff's 493 homers, .377 on base percentage and cool nickname should be enough to vault him to baseball immortality. He smacked 30+ big flies 10 different times. He also DH'd, did nothing on the bases and changed teams six times. The seamheads peg him at 57 wins against replacement, and that might have felt like enough if he'd played most of his career for one or two teams.

So here's my ballot, ignoring the 10-candidate limit, in roughly the order of their greatness:
Barry Bonds
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Frank Thomas
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Tom Glavine
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent*
Alan Trammel**
Fred McGriff**
Larry Walker**
Jack Morris***

*probably
**not now but I could be persuaded 
***shut up




29 November 2013

Lifting the Veil of Luck

It's appropriate on the weekend of Black Friday to discuss shopping frenzies. To some extent, every team is in one now as they kick the tires on free agents who might help them win in 2014 and beyond.

One of the most important advances in the world of baseball analytics is the ability of franchise brass to evaluate personnel realistically. When baseball GMs determine which free agents might help their teams in 2014, they will view 37-year-old Bruce Chen with a jaundiced eye.

Teams will know that Chen's 9-4, 3.27 effort for Kansas City in 2013 was a chimera. Nothing in his pitching profile suggested that he had a special season except the ultimate results. In 121 innings he fanned just 78. He relinquished just 107 hits, primarily because opponents batted only .255 on balls in play (BABIP) against him, 25 points lower than his career rate and 40 notches lower than league average. The chasm opens wider when examining only Chen's 15 starts; he made 19 relief appearances to begin the season before the Royals summoned him back into the rotation.

In addition, Chen  stranded 78% of runners who reached base against him, significantly above his lifetime and league average rates. Strand rates are rarely a matter of skill. Finally, an unusually low percentage of fly balls against him left the park, often a sign that a pitcher got lucky with wind, field configuration, and the like.  Taken together, the snapshot of Chen's results provides strong evidence that regression troops are arraying on the border and preparing to attack next season. Caveat emptor.

Likewise, Cubs brass won't be relying on Travis Wood to deliver another stellar (literally: he made the All-Star team) 3.29 ERA season in 2014. Wood also enjoyed a low BABIP (.248), high strand rate (77%) and low fly ball/HR ratio. Advanced statistical models suggest his actual performance looked more like a 4.50 ERA.

Instead, Cubs management might hope for bounce-back from Edwin Jackson. Despite an 8-18, 4.98 campaign in '13, Jackson was actually a strong performer. A .322 BABIP against and a frighteningly low (63%) strand rate conspired to denigrate his work. Fangraphs estimates Jackson was worth two wins above replacement, something an ERA of nearly-five would not suggest.

And don't look now, but 2014's Tiger pitching phenom could be Rick Porcello. The 25-year-old righty managed a 13-8, 4.32 line when everything was going against him; it'll be interesting to see what happens when he basks in the sunshine of serendipity. Like Jackson, Porcello suffered a high BABIP and low strand rate in '13, but big flies are what really did him in. One of every seven balls in the air against him cleared the fences, a miserable rate for which he might not be completely responsible. Fangraphs thinks Porcello was more like a 3.50 ERA hurler who was worth 3.5 wins last year.
Over the last four years, Porcello's strikeout rate has risen while his walk rate has held steady. If he can keep the ball in the park just a little better he has a chance to to some damage in 2014.

Remember, regression is a trend, not a guarantee. Jackson could stink up the joint again and Wood could again leave the bases full of runners. It's just not the way to bet.
 

28 November 2013

Translating Ryan Braun's News Conference

Admitted liar Ryan Braun made his first public appearance yesterday, serving himself up to reporters while collecting food for needy families in an attempt to whitewash his tattered image. In the wake of his inept non-apology following acceptance of a 65-game suspension for PED use that he had previously denied with self-righteous indignation, Braun's team of lawyers and PR people evidently have devised a new strategy: do nominally good acts and politely decline to discuss the matter in the hopes that reporters will give up asking about it and people will cease to care.

It's a master stroke, because more apologizing, even sincere apologies that acknowledge the breadth and depth of his duplicity and accept total responsibility for it, won't change anyone's mind. Brewer fans will forget Braun's sins as soon as he makes his first appearance in their team's uniform. Like fans everywhere, they care less about morality and ethics than they do about their own desires, and if a former MVP can help them win, that overrides all other considerations.

Don't make that face, Giants fans. You cheered Barry Bonds to the end. Quit chuckling, Florida State followers. You're more concerned that charges against Jameis Winston will affect the Seminoles' championship run than that an innocent young woman might have been raped.

Settle down Baltimorons. You worship Ray Lewis to this day, willfully ignorant that, at the very least, he got away with impeding a double-murder investigation, at worst, he was complicit in the stabbing deaths of two men, and most likely, something in between that warrants punishment and recrimination that he never endured.

For the majority of baseball fans who don't follow Milwaukee's team, the details of Braun's hypocrisy will evaporate to a hazy film and they will forgive him for cheating as they've done for many others. Of course, cheating is the least of Braun's sins.

The rest of us, those paying attention to the cover-up as well as the crime, are deaf to any apologies. Had he not been caught with unassailable proof against him, it is indisputable that Ryan Braun would still be cheating, issuing sanctimonious denials and exploiting his disproportionate power and wealth to crush anyone who might reveal his lies.

To what appears to be his credit, Braun stopped to face reporters at the food drive. "I'm happy to answer your questions," he said. He then spent 15 minutes evading their queries. As a public service, Braindrizzling offers this translated partial transcript of the news conference.

Reporter: Ryan, why did you lie about PEDs?
Braun: As you know, I've been through a lot and as I expressed in my statement...I got into a lot of details at that point and I'm not going to go into further details.
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions but I'm not going to answer them! C'mon, do I look like an idiot? No, in fact I look like a movie star and it doesn't hurt that I'm articulate too. So the good people of Wisconsin will see me politely facing my accusers and won't dwell on the actual verbal content. Yea, me!

Reporter: What do you have to say to the Little Leaguers who really have worshiped the ground you walked on?
Braun: I made a mistake, a huge mistake that's obviously been very difficult to deal with...we all deal with adversity, we all deal with challenges in life and you can take the opportunity to view them as an obstacle or an opportunity to grow from, to learn from and to help others to learn from and that's what I intend to do.
Translation: Little Fucking Leaguers? How about me? I have to endure questions like these from low-life reporters merely for being a scumbag. I'm the victim here! Look at the adversity I have to deal with. Woe is me!

Reporter: In your opinion was the bigger sin using the PEDs or lying about it after the fact?
Braun: As I stated, the goal for me is just being able to move forward. I'm not really going to get into too many specific about what happened except to say I'm extremely remorseful...
Translation: I'm happy to take your questions.

Reporter: Ryan, what was the injury that you referred to in your statement that you took the products for?
Braun: Again, I'm not going to get into specifics and continue to go backward. I'm moving forward...
Translation: My pants are on fire.

Reporter: Don't you think you owe everybody who wants to talk about the specifics and tell us exactly what happened?
Braun: I completely understand and respect where you guys are coming from and that part of your job is to ask those questions but I hope you guys can understand and respect the fact that in an effort to move forward I'm not going to continue to discuss this stuff.
Translation: See, if I keep saying that I won't continue to discuss this stuff people will forget that I never discussed it in the first place and that "this stuff" is cheating my way to an MVP and lying relentlessly for two years to your faces. Do I have the best PR team or what!

Reporter: Ryan, what about the 2011 MVP award? Does this revelation invalidate that award?
Braun: As I said, I'm just going to move forward. I think that's all I can do. I'm not going to go back and discuss things that happened in the past...
Translation: Possession is nine-tenths of the law, suckers! So the trophy is mine as long as I maintain an unbroken chain of custody. In conclusion, I'd like to offer my sincere apology and remorse and also my middle finger to the good people of Milwaukee and all of Major League Baseball and with the help of my vast wealth, my lawyers and my truth spinners, I hope I can outlast everyone's indignation, which I assume will continue unabated for many minutes to come.

27 November 2013

The NBA Exists As A Cautionary Tale for MLB

Commenting on the loss of star guard Derrick Rose, a leading NBA analyst asserted that the Chicago Bulls could no longer challenge for the Eastern Conference crown. He noted that despite a terrific coach and some very good players, Chicago could not compete with the two Eastern powers -- the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.

So, 15 games into an 82-game marathon, 13 of 15 teams in the East are simply playing out the string with no hope of a championship. That notion is borne out by this: Miami and Indiana are the only two squads with more wins than losses in their conference, and they're 26-4 between them.

On the other side of the ledger, five teams have won two-thirds or more of their contests. The Western Conference appears to these inexpert eyes to be more wide open. Still, if the competition is merely among those five, as many suggest, 10 others are simply jockeying for draft position.

And yet, they will play 1000 more NBA regular-season games over four months and then begin an interminable playoff season, in which nine of the 16 contenders -- some two of whom must advance to the second round -- haven't a prayer.

That is why the NBA regular season, and the first round of their playoffs, are irrelevant, and can only be considered interesting by those willing to suspend disbelief about the futility facing most fan bases. It seems pretty clear that God put the NBA on this planet as a cautionary tale for Major League Baseball. I hope the next commissioner heeds it.

24 November 2013

The 10 Best Ideas In Sports (Not!)

Conventional wisdom, like student-athletes, tends to be one and not the other. Below are the 10 greatest and most persistent ideas in sports that have somehow eluded punchline status.

1. How valuable can he be when his team wasn't any good? Let's flip this. How valuable could Ichiro Suzuki have been in 2001 when the Mariners swept the AL West by 14 games, and finished 31 games clear of the Wild Card? Seattle could undeniably have earned a playoff berth without him. Yet the writers who use this question to justify skipping over a league's best player voted Ichiro the MVP by a wide margin.

2. The team controls its own destiny. No one owns a dictionary anymore, I get that. But dictionary.com is one click away. Google is still on computers, last I checked. Is there some vast, worldwide conspiracy to not understand what destiny is? (Hint: see fate, kismet.) Next: the world's physicists discuss in which direction the sun revolves around the earth.

3. His team lost, so he's no longer the leading Heisman candidate. Because his six touchdowns demonstrated a lack of leadership.

4. Championships are all that matter. So being a fan of the Minnesota Twins was just as rewarding in the 1990s as being a fan of the Atlanta Braves, because each team celebrated one World Championship during the decade. The Twins averaged 67 victories, and notched two winning seasons, one division title and one pennant in that span. The Braves averaged 95 victories, and notched nine winning seasons, eight division titles and five pennants. But none of that matters; only championships do.

5. Hitting wins games but pitching wins championships. (Football corollary: offense wins games but defense wins championships.) Brilliant! Think about what this revolutionary concept says: If you hold your opponent to fewer runs (or points) than you score, you will win the title. But if you score more runs (points) than you allow, you won't win the title. This changes everything! It disproves the widely held belief that offense and defense are inversely linked: every run (point) the offense scores, the defense allows.

6. This is a big regular-season game because they're battling for the top seed . . . Sure, because the top seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round while on the other hand, the second seed gets the home field/court/ice advantage against a clearly inferior opponent in the first round. Plus, if these same two teams make it through the post-season gauntlet to meet for the conference championship, the one-seed gets home field/court/ice advantage, which has been proven over the last 30 years to be utterly irrelevant. So they'll be slugging it out in this critically important regular season contest in which both combatants long ago clinched a playoff spot and would never think to rest their best players and protect them from injury. (Now on the radio: George Strait's "Ocean Front Property.")

7. I'm against instant replay because I believe in the human element. You got that right! And while we're at it, let's put the human element back in team travel. No more of these fancy aeroplanes. The teams should just walk from St. Louis to Cincinnati. And no more of this tel-o-visioning either. People should either come to the game or wait for the newspaper to report two days later the information they get from the teletype. And no more of them arthroscopes and other fancy medical doo-dads for injured athletes. Back to surgeons with saws and ether. Because, you know, the human element. We like a system that upholds game-deciding mistakes, which the entire world except the umpires can see replayed. If it's good enough for the Providence Grays, the Boston Beaneaters and the Cleveland Spiders, it's good enough for us.

8. If the team wins a third championship in three years, the quarterback has to get consideration for "greatest college football player of all time." (This one has been suggested specifically of A.J. McCarron, the QB of Alabama.) Wait, I thought defense wins championships. (McCarron's never even earned first team SEC, but 14 of his teammates over the three years have.)

9. He's an RBI guy. Some guys are base stealers. Others are LOOGYs. None is so revered as the man who bats behind the best hitters on his team and exploits his opportunities to plate runs by grounding out, flying out, bouncing into a double-play, sacrificing or other cunning methods. He is the RBI Guy. We never hear about his counterpart, the RS Guy, who walks, steals second, advances to third on a ground out and makes it possible for RBI Guy to knock him in.

10. All that counts is: how many rings does he have? Back-up shortstop Luis Soto is thrilled to hear this. By this accounting, he is one of the great players of all time. He won five championships with the Yankees and Toronto. He accrued a .650 lifetime OPS and earned four wins against replacement over a 13-year career. Whereas Walter Johnson and Ty Cobb combined for one title -- they probably didn't even get rings back in 1924 -- and all they did was enter the Hall of Fame with the first class. Why? Because they had the misfortune to play on bad teams? Pfff! It was because they lacked the will to win! And that's why they can never be the greatest of all time. Johnson, who in every other sense was the most accomplished hurler in baseball history, earned four times as many wins against replacement as Soto -- with his bat.

Go back 50 years and you find an even more spectacular winner than Soto. Third-string Yankee catcher Ralph Houk slugged seven extra base hits, including zero home runs, in his eight year career. He garnered one-tenth of a win against replacement for his entire Major League life. But he had the will to win, as his six World Series rings attest.

In basketball, the same honor goes to Robert Horry. His seven trophies -- two with Houston, three with the Lakers and two with San Antonio -- attest to his transcendence. He may have received some slight assistance from Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, Shaquille O'Neill, Kobe Bryant, David Robinson and Tim Duncan.

Those 10 assertions continue to delight, years after their debunking. Long live the myths! (Not!)

21 November 2013

A Good Old-Fashioned Trade

When Detroit sent their portly vegetarian first-baseman to Arlington yesterday for keystoner Ian Kinsler, each team got a fielder. The Rangers got Prince, a 30-year-old basher with on-base skills and seven years of lottery winnings left on his contract. The Tigers got a 32-year-old second baseman with mad leather skills, a nice bat and quick feet on the basepaths.

It's a straight-up deal, a star for a star. And the big winner is, Jurickson Profar. The Rangers' second base uber-prospect can now step out of Kinsler's shadow and demonstrate his skills. At 20, he spent half-a-season showing he belonged in The Show despite bouncing among positions like a yoga instructor.

For that reason, this deal makes sense for Texas. Their Kinsler money lands Fielder, who replaces the steroid-pumped bat of free agent Nelson Cruz, and Profar cushions the blow at second. Their big concern is the $138 million they'll owe their new slugger through his age-36 year. Fielder comes off a down season and four years of declining walks. But as Ranger GM Jon Daniels noted, Prince is untouchable without the down season. And the walks may be an artifact of batting behind the league's MVP: the other team can't walk both of them.

With this trade, the Tigers get all the colors straight on their Rubik's cube, even though Kinsler's peak ended in 2011. Absent 32-year-old free agent Omar Infante, they had a big black hole facing them at the keystone and a logjam of big-boned DH types playing the field. The swap allows them to limit Miguel Cabrera's damage with the glove by rolling his spherical self back to first, add hitting and base stealing at second and find a third baseman who can actually play the hot corner. That's prospect Nick Castellanos raising his hand out there in left field.

Kinsler has $62 million coming through his age 36 season, plus $30 million the team is sending to Texas to offset some of Fielder's pay. (That figure is already included in the amount the Rangers will owe Fielder.) He is also damaged goods following a season with the fewest walks, worst base-stealing and lowest OPS of his career. That said, he was credited with 4.9 wins against replacement, which is basically All-Star level. The Tigers took on much less risk and improved their feng shui by moving the parts to their correct places.

It would be great to see more of these kinds of trades and fewer salary dumps, veterans for prospects deals and headache swaps. It's one trade we'll be able to look back on and determine who got the better of it.

16 November 2013

Why the 2014 Pirates = the 2013 Nationals

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of 94 games and the Wild Card in 2013. The Bucs ended two decades of futility by exceeding expectations this past season. The good people of the Steel City should pop an Iron City Brew to toast their young team's accomplishment. And then prepare for 2014, when PNC's denizens return to earth.

We've seen this before. Think all the way back to 2012, when a young Washington Nationals team swept to the league's best record with 98 wins. Like the Pirates, the Nats were a year ahead of schedule, but breakouts by their promising franchise players (Harper and Strasburg) coincided with unexpected leaps from veterans (Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez).

In 2013, Gonzalez regressed to form (from 21-8, 2.89 to 11-8, 3.36) and LaRoche fell predictably hard (from .271 BA and 33 home runs to .237 BA and 20 HR). In addition, a Washington bullpen that strangled NL hitters in 2012, allowing a 2.85 ERA, lost much of its effectiveness in 2013, allowing 3.57 earned runs per nine, and the runs allowed seemed to come at the most inopportune times.

The result was that the Nats wavered all spring and summer, and needed a late-season burst to claim 86 wins. A similar fate awaits Pittsburgh in 2014 assuming their roster doesn't change dramatically between now and Opening Day.

For one thing, the Pirates this past season outperformed their profile by six wins. That's a good bit of luck filling their sails that is unlikely to blow next season. Here is a list of other 2013 artifacts they can't expect next year:

1. First baseman Gaby Sanchez will reprise his career high .361 OBP.
2. The bullpen will finish third in baseball in fewest runs allowed.
3. Only one starting player will suffer a serious injury.
4. Andrew McCutchen will win the MVP
5. Marlon Byrd will hit .318/.357/.486 in the final 30 games. (He's signed elsewhere.)
6. Starter Jeff Locke and his 1.49 K/BB ratio will hold opponents to a 3.52 ERA.
7. Jason Grilli's magic carpet ride will continue at age 37.


Some unexpected positives will offset what's above, but even if it all evens out and the entire net loss is due to luck, Jolly Roger wins 88 instead of 94 and misses the playoffs.

Now here's the good news: like the Nationals, the Pirates are built for the long run. Washington will bounce back in 2014 as youth continues to be served and become the World Series favorites many picked them for this year. Assuming the normal progression of its young players and intelligent player acquisition, Pittsburgh will be a contender in 2015. Management in Western Pennsylvania and (to a lesser degree) the District of Columbia have the long view in mind. Fans of the two teams would be wise to adopt the same policy.

15 November 2013

Catching Up . . . Awards, Goodbye Brian McCann, So Long Turner Field

Baseball events have continued apace despite a Braindrizzling hiatus. How can that be? Perhaps Joe Posnanski kept things afloat in the interim.

The Cy Young Awards were announced this week. There's not a whole lot of room for debate on Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer. Kershaw led the planet in ERA, and that includes Little League. Scherzer's 21-3 record and nearly six runs of support per start don't accrue to his credit, but he shouldn't be penalized for them either. Scherzer gets the prize because he dominated AL batters to the tune of a nifty 2.90 ERA, 240 strikeouts in 214 innings, and a best-in-class .97 WHIP.

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The same for Rookie of the Year awards. The trophy would have gone to Yasiel Puig in almost any other year. He punched balls all over the yard, 60% better than league average, and added dynamite to a moribund Dodger offense when he arrived. In years when such luminaries as Geovany Soto, Jason Jennings, Angel Berroa and Bobby Crosby earned top honors, Puig would have run away. Sadly for him, his freshman season coincided with Jose Fernandez's, which awoke ghosts of Fernandomania en route to a 12-6, 2.19 with more whiffs than frames pitched. 

In the AL, Wil Myers and his .293/.354/.478 in slightly more than half a season was the pretty clear choice over shortstop Jose Iglesias and a couple of nice pitchers. In all, not much to complain about.

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The MVP Awards went as expected to Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera. Both were excellent choices. That Cabrera wasn't the best choice doesn't change the fact that he had another  MVP-caliber season. It's difficult to be disappointed when a great candidate, the second-best of the league's 600 players, secures the honor. It's easy to be disappointed that Major League baseball writers don't know the difference between a great hitter and a great player, and can't fathom how one player's value isn't dependent on the performances of his teammates, but if being disappointed in baseball writers were a virus, we'd all have a permanent case of Ebola.

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You probably heard that teams made $14.1 million qualifying offers to 13 players, every one of which was declined. This is a ritual dance carried out by GMs and players under the new collective bargaining agreement. The players are now free agents who may seek multi-year deals. The teams may or may not want the players back but they will receive compensation draft picks if their former player is signed elsewhere.

Let's take the case of Braves backstop Brian McCann. The Georgia native is leaving by mutual decision, a net benefit for both him and the team even if he inks a five-year, $12 million/year deal with a catcher-starved franchise. (Hello Yankees! By the way, $12 mil is going to be cat pee compared to what McCann commands.) That serves McCann, who at 29 is headed into his decline years, but would guarantee the McCann family $60 million, rather than $14.1 million. It serves the good people of Atlanta -- or Marietta -- because the Braves have cheaper options and serious budget constraints. Leading the parade to replace the seven-time All-Star is Evan Gattis, whose above-average hitting comes with a half-million-dollar price tag and whose value is much greater behind the plate than in left field, where he attempted to hide in 2013. In addition, Atlanta would receive a first round supplemental pick from the signing team.

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Speaking of the Braves, they've flipped Turner Field into the trashcan after just 17 years, like it's a disposable lighter. Shame on the the various entities (which included NBC and the Atlanta Olympic Authority) for paying the massive retrofit costs to turn Centennial Olympic Stadium into Turner Field without requiring the Braves to sign a long-term lease.

The franchise and its new hosts, suburban Cobb County, claim the new home will be a "public-private partnership." This is code for an arrangement in which the public pays the bill and the team reaps the benefits.

In most "public-private" arrangements around sports stadiums, municipalities foot the bill and then lend their borrowing authority to the team for a portion of the costs. The team repays its loan at a discounted rate because the bonds are low-interest and tax-free. The municipality restricts its future borrowing ability for things like schools, hospitals, sewer systems and infrastructure that teams regularly complain about. 

Many econometric studies have demonstrated that even after accounting for all the possible spending resulting from relocated sports teams, municipalities rarely earn back the value of their investments in stadiums unless those edifices are key cogs in new downtown development. Baseball teams are relatively smal businesses whose payrolls generally leave the state from November through March. The stadiums lay empty roughly 250 days-a-year and their use often generates as many costs for the city as tax income, all while the bonds demand repayment.

So the Braves will begin play in their third home in 21 years when they move to Marietta while the Red Sox have competed in the Fens for more than a century.

03 November 2013

Is David Ortiz a Hall of Famer?

With another set of post-season heroics in the rear view mirror, Hall of Fame buzz is beginning to swirl around David Ortiz. At 38, Big Papi delivered his best season since '07, with a .959 OPS in 137 games. Since joining the Red Sox in '03, Big Papi has authored a .292/.390/.572 resume with 373 home runs and an offensive record 48% above league average. That includes 2008-09 when a wrist injury hampered his swing and sapped his power; absent those two seasons he's raking at 55% above average. That Coopestownish.

The major Hall of Fame problem for Ortiz is that his career did not start with Boston in '03. In his first six years with the Twins, he hit just .266 with 58 homers. There was no Big and no Papi until he landed in the Bay state and began mashing behind Manny Ramirez. Ortiz has performed at a Hall of Fame level with the bat over an 11-year period, but that's not long enough and it's not the entirety of his playing career.

There's another barrier to a bronze bust for Ortiz: he's a DH. You will hear and read irrelevant analysis about how a DH doesn't belong in the Hall or about how no DH has ever been elected. Neither is the point. Cooperstown has a long history of enshrinement of one-dimensional players, in case you mistook Harmon Killebrew for  a speed merchant (19 of 37 steals in 22 years) and defensive wizard (19 career wins below replacement with the glove). 

The problem with rostering a player who can only DH is that it has an inherent negative effect on team construction. The various sabermetric measuring systems assess this against a player's defense, but the restrictions such a player imposes on lineup flexibility may accrue to offense instead or as well. Between his lack of range when he donned his mitt and the lack of managerial range created by carrying a non-fielder on the roster, Ortiz has cost his teams 18 wins over his career. That offsets a goodly chunk of his overall value.

There are four widely-used systems designed to predict a player's Hall of Fame case. Three of them say Ortiz has a fair amount of work to do. For example, the average Hall of Fame first baseman leads the league in 27 seasonal categories over the course of his career. Papi has led the AL in home runs once, RBIs twice, walks twice, OBP once and total bases once, well short of that standard. The JAWS Hall of Fame valuation model, which compares a player's value to the average Haller at his position (Ortiz is considered a first baseman since there are no DHs to whom we can compare him) suggests Ortiz is well short in both his peak and his overall career numbers, by distances he cannot bridge even if he performs well into his 40s.

None of this captures the special character that sparked the speculation to begin with. "Clutch" hitting is a vastly exaggerated notion, but Big Papi delivers in key situations so relentlessly there can be no denying that he loves the spotlight and thrives on pressure. Recounting all his game-changing home runs in season-altering games would amount to gilding the lily. His .455/.576/.795 line in three triumphant World Series speaks for itself. In addition, his unquestioned leadership was captured exquisitely when he gathered his bearded brethren around him in the dugout in Game 4 of the just concluded championship. It is tempting to assign cause and effect to that confab and the three consecutive victories that turned a 2-1 deficit into a parade.

How do you measure leadership and clutch hitting? What are their value? Are they enough to overcome a career gap of 24 wins against replacement. The answer, for me, is pretty clear: not even close. Big Papi is a great player and a character who will live forever in baseball history, but he hasn't done enough to earn a bust.

On to the elephant in the room: steroids. The New York Times reported that Ortiz was among 100 players who tested positively for steroids in 2003. Ortiz denied he took steroids and the Players Association claims those relatively unsophisticated tests returned false positives for supplement use. For some cynical followers of the game, that's enough to convict a player even though it amounts to nothing.

Others point to the spike in Ortiz big flies from 2004-2006 (40-47-54) at ages 28-30, followed by a dramatic decline to 35 after 2006, never to return. This argument is specious: that's normal career peaking. Indeed, in the four years preceding his home run spike he hit 10-18-20-31. In the four years following his peak, his home run totals declined to 35-23-28-32. He also played more games during the peak than in any other years. 

In other words, there are several good reasons not to elect David Ortiz to the Hall of Fame -- a short peak and bad defense chief among them. There are a couple of good reasons to consider him further -- palpable leadership and clutch hitting that helped propel his team to three more championships in 10 years than they had won in the previous 86. But denying him a bust because of steroids is pure electoral malpractice, on par with electing Ted Cruz or Jesse Jackson Jr. to Congress.