In his brief Major League Baseball career, young Bryce Harper has averaged a .272 batting average with 21 home runs and 58 RBI, while scoring 85 runs. Add in some dynamic baserunning and defensive play and he's provided the Nationals with an average of 4.3 wins despite missing 23 and 44 games in his two seasons.
That is the resume of a good player -- an above-average starter on any team, but not quite an All-Star.
But Bryce Harper is not a good player.
Bryce Harper is an all-time great player whose odds of making the Hall of Fame are somewhere in the vicinity of 50%, with the bad half of the equation due almost entirely to possible injuries down the road.
In the Minor Leagues, it makes a big difference whether a prospect is 19 or 21. A good high-Single-A hitter at 19 is an organizational star. At 21 he's a guy.
Bryce Harper has hung two big boy seasons on his MLB opponents before he could legally buy a drink. He's made adjustments, been adjusted to and made new adjustments, and he's still getting better -- and bigger and stronger. He boosted his OBP 28 points last year to .368 -- higher than Jacoby Ellsbury's -- and that was despite a knee damaged by a pair of outfield wall collisions.
To get real perspective on Harper, here is the thin air in which he flies: The most similar 20-year-olds to him are George Davis, Mel Ott, Al Kaline, Ty Cobb and Buddy Lewis. Alone outside the Hall, Lewis was a fine-hitting third baseman and outfielder who lost three critical years to WWII, but nonetheless hit .297/.348/.420 for his career. And he wasn't half the player at 19 and 20 that Bryce Harper has been.
Harper's five-tool talent and competitive fire are undeniably world class; the only question about him is whether he can harness his desire and remain on the field. And that's the profile of a great player.
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