It's been a Lake Wobegon kind of first week of the season: everything's been above-average.
Take Cliff Lee's opening day start for the Phillies. He faced the minimum 27 batters. That got him through just five innings, during which he got shelled for 11 hits, a walk, and eight runs, while recording just one strikeout. And "earned" the win in a 14-10 scrum.
Two days later, Matt Garza, now representing the good people of Milwaukee, who gave admitted cheater, self-righteous liar and cynical media-manipulator Ryan Braun an ovation, also faced the minimum 27 batters. It got him through eight solid frames against the Braves, during which he limited them to a run on two hits, a walk and seven strikeouts. He took the loss in a 1-0 game.
Hyun-jin Ryu got the loss that he earned in the Dodger home opener when the Giants lit him up for three walks, eight hits and eight runs in two frames. The four relievers who followed -- Jose Dominguez, Brandon League, Chris Withrow and Jamey Wright -- shut out and no-hit the Giants, surrendering just one walk and fanning 10.
And then there was Mark Buehrle, late of the Toronto Blue Jays. His masterful first start against Tampa Bay came within an out of a complete game four-hit shutout. What was remarkable was the Buehrle struck out 11 Rays -- only the second time he's reached double-digits in his outstanding 15-year career. Even more amazing in a game where three-quarters of all strikeouts require a swing and a miss, Buehrle earned eight of his "K"s looking.
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A gentleman named Charlie Blackmon has apparently accumulated nearly 500 plate appearances with Colorado over the past three years. Who knew? He even hit .309 in spot duty last season. In the Rockies' fourth game this spring, Blackmon torched Diamondback pitchers for three doubles, a home run and two singles in six trips, a 1.000/1.000/2.000 slash line.
Suppose that was the lefty centerfielder's first game (it wasn't). How many games could he go with a mediocre performance, like a single in four plate appearances, before his batting average dropped below .300? The answer is, it would take 21 more games to fall to .300. He would drop below that mark in his 23rd game. Until then, Blackmon leads the NL in slugging percentage at .963 -- after five tilts.
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You may have noticed that the Houston Triple-As claimed victory in the first two games of the season against the New York Hall of Famers. You might have wondered: what are the odds of that?
Let's do a little supposing and then a little (but not too much) math. Suppose the Astros are a 100-loss team and the Yankees are a 90-win team. Reasonable assumptions, right? And let's suppose that playing in Minute Maid* confers upon the home team a five percent advantage and upon the visitors an equal penalty. What's the likelihood that a .383 squad whips up on a .556 opponent twice in a row?
* Could you find a more pansy name for a ballpark than that? They should have stuck with Enron.
In that scenario, assuming they are what the projections say they are, Houston has a 43% of winning each game. But the odds that they take both is just 18.6%, or less than one-in-five. The Yanks had only a 32% chance -- about one in three -- of sweeping the first two contests. Game three went to New York, so Houston won the series two games to one. The chances of that were roughly one in three. Which is why it wasn't front-page news.
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You want shocking? How about this: Craig Kimbrel is toying with batters again. He's faced nine of them and whiffed six. The league is batting zero against him, with a zero OBP and a zero slugging average. There was that sharply hit infield grounder though.
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