01 August 2014

Beane Ball: Do the Opposite of What Billy Beane Would Do

There's a new general manager in Oakland. He is Not-Billy Beane.

The actual Beane, he of Moneyball fame, the first of the sabermetric-inclined GMs; the savant whose early trades humiliated his trade partners; the first to recognize the power of on-base percentage, the fungibility of closers and the real value of managers; the ex-prospect who assembled one playoff team after another without a payroll, a stadium or a fan base; that Billy Beane would never swap a young stud like Yoenis Cespedes for a two-month pitching rental, even of the Jon Lester variety.

That Billy Beane takes the long view, cobbles offensive machines out of platoons and role players, inks low-cost, high-value free agents and recycles young arms. He wins division after division after division -- seven playoff teams in the last 14 years.

And then -- disappointment. His teams have succumbed in the division series six times, each of them in the final game. In several of those series the A's led two games to none and then got swept. And in the one league championship series of Beane's reign, the A's were tomahawked out without a win.

Beane famously said "my shit doesn't work in the playoffs," and yesterday Not-Billy Beane went about proving that he believed it. Blessed with his best team in years, a squad leading baseball in runs scored, fewest runs allowed and the best record in the game, Not-Billy Beane did what Billy Beane would never do.

First, a month ago, he swapped a pair of promising minor leaguers for two good but not great Cubs' pitchers. Then yesterday he relinquished his five-tool outfielder for a two-month Jon Lester rental. 

Except it's not the two months that Not-Billy Beane needs Lester for. The A's know perfectly well how to win in August and September without high-cost rentals like Jon Lester whom Oakland will never be able to re-sign.  

Not-Billy signed Lester for the 19 games of October that really count. Not-Billy realizes that all there is no finger hardware for division titles. There are no t-shirt sales proclaiming the team Division Champions. No documentaries, no parades and no delirium in the streets. They require a World Championship.

So Not-Billy brought in Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija to supplement Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir for those five- and seven-game series that have formed the bulwark against Beane's World Series quest. Come Games Three and Four of the ALDS, Beane won't be outmatched on the mound against anyone. The same thing in Games Four through Seven of the ALCS and World Series.

Over the years, we've seen Billy Beane change his strategy numerous time from focusing on OBP to defense to BABIP en route to accomplishments well beyond his revenue stream. Today we're seeing Beane change his fundamental principles. We'll find out soon whether Not-Billy Beane fares any better.

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