28 August 2014

I Want My MVP

Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire must be spinning in their, um, sofas.

Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have got to be smacking their foreheads.

Where have all the steroids gone?

Consider this: Josh Donaldson is Baseball-Reference's leading AL MVP candidate. He's hitting .253 and his .802 OPS is 94 points lower than Gehrig's worst -- his rookie season.

Sure, Donaldson would snag an MVP with his glove. A third of his value is in the webbing. Mike Trout, though, owes all his value to offense this year. By Trout standards, he's scuffling in almost every way. He is batting under .300, stealing half as many bases and striking out more than ever. His OBP has cratered. His SLG had dived. (He is hitting a few more home runs.) And the award might be his to lose.

In the NL, once you get past Giancarlo and Tulo, you get Juan Lagares. The Mets' centerfielder has four homers, 15 walks and 38 runs scored. B-Ref says his fielding places him fifth in the league in value. Wha? Bring back the hitting! Chicks dig the long ball.

If ever there was a year when pitchers were positioned to win an MVP this is it. Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez are historically great hurlers bolstered by an historically weak-hitting season. If you're like me and don't consider pitchers for MVP (they have their own award and require apples-to-oranges comparisons) then you're almost forced to pick a player batting below .300, hitting fewer than 40 home runs and stealing fewer than 30 bases.

If you gave me a ballot, and I had to cast it right now, I'd pick Stanton in the NL. He leads the league in homers, RBI, walks, on base and slugging, and he plays manly defense. McCutcheon and Tulowitzki have been studs but for abbreviated stretches due to injuries. Backstop Jonathan Lucroy earns a mention for batting .300 and leading the league in doubles while squatting half the game.

In the AL there'd be some real nose-holding. Trout's the leader in the clubhouse, with Robinson Cano (.325 BA at a defensive position in a tough hitting park) on his tail. Chicago's Jose Abreu (lots of pop), Cleveland's Michael Brantley (a little of everything) and Toronto's Jose Bautista (25 homers and a league-leading OBP) would contend.

But a late-season surge sure would be appreciated so we could vote for someone who looks like an MVP.

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