They're Not Races; They're Roller Coasters

For all those who have written off the .500 teams or declared victory for the division leaders, along comes the NL Central to remind us all that baseball just doesn't work that way.

On August 19, the Milwaukee Brewers led the division by two games with a 71-55 ledger, the best in the senior circuit. At 68-57, the Cardinals stood two-and-a-half games back, with Pittsburgh another four-and-a-half behind, having completed a seven-game losing skid.

Two weeks later, the top of the division has flipped, with St. Louis enjoying leads of three and five on their rivals and the Brewers clinging to a Wild Card berth. Pundits are writing off the chase, in part because Milwaukee always felt like a pretender and in part because the Cards have been here before and before and before.

A quick look at the etiology of the Central race demonstrates vividly how unsettled things really are. Consider:

The Cards are setting the pace on the strength of a five-game victory streak. But that followed losses in six of eight, which succeeded seven wins in eight games, which came on the heels of a 10-game stretch of seven defeats.

The Brewers have lost hold of the division by falling eight straight times, but they secured their grip with seven wins in 10 games, following three defeats in four tries.

And Pittsburgh, now with their MVP back, has dropped four in a row, three to the hated Redbirds. Prior to that, seven of eight up, seven straight down, five of seven up.

Which is to say, St. Louis is fully capable of entering a six-of-eight slide while Milwaukee and Pittsburgh run out strings of seven wins in eight games. Then, voila, the Brewers lead the Central by two and the Pirates slip into second. It's not the way to bet, but it's happened before. Ask fans in Boston, Atlanta, Dallas and Anaheim, to consider just the last four or five years.

It's the beauty and the curse of baseball: your team can struggle or flourish for 140 games. But if they revive or falter at the end, the first six months turn out to be just preliminaries.

So hang on to your hat.