Thuffering Thuccotath: The Phumbling Phils

While the Mets, Astros and Marlins crawl from the ooze towards respectability, and the Cubs and Padres catapult themselves into contention, there is one team that clings tenaciously to a healthy awfulness in 2015. 

That would be your Phailing Phils. They are phocused on phutility well into the phuture.

Now three seasons removed from a playoff run that peaked with a world championship in 2009, the first crack has shown in GM Ruben Amaro's cognitive dissonance. After a .500 season in 2012 and two 73-win campaigns the last two years, Amaro may be reluctantly coming to grips with the disaster that he built around aging stars Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee, Carlos Ruiz and, most notably, Ryan Howard, whose $125 million extension kicked in the moment his career went belly up.*

*Howard ended the 2011 season by tearing his Achilles tendon on the last out of the playoffs. The extension commenced in 2012 with Howard in rehab. In the three years since, Howard has delivered a win below replacement, slugging 11 fewer home runs than he hit in 2006 alone.

This winter, Amaro finally sold off a part -- shortstop Jimmy Rollins -- but has stuck with the rest of an aging bunch and a steadfast defense of his plan. Without the influx of prospects from trades of veterans, the Phils are headed for a long stint in the fire as they exit the frying pan. This is particularly true absent a productive farm system the last few years that has spit out Domonic Brown, Cody Asche, Freddy Galvis and Darren Ruf. Combined, this crew has performed at half a run below replacement for their careers.

In fact, first round picks in Philadelphia's last 11 drafts have totaled a win below replacement, 40 WAR worse than the average team's first rounders. 

So here's the recipe for 90+ losses out towards the horizon:
Five parts aging veterans well past their prime
Four parts lousy drafting and developing of young players
One heaping tablespoon of recalcitrant GM who refuses to bury sunk costs
And an empty $25 million/year contract that can't be moved

If Rollins turns out to be a start, and Amaro transforms every asset over 30 into some future returns, the Phillies can retrench now and hope to reclaim respectability in three-to-five years. Certainly there are robust markets for a good-hitting catcher (Ruiz) and an All-Star second baseman (Utley). Lee might have more value halfway through the season, but closer Jonathan Paplebon should draw suitors right now coming off a 39-save performance. Together, trading those four could lop half-a-decade off the rebuilding process, while keeping them might get the team to 70 wins.

The Phils don't seem inclined to go that route, believing that their current troubles are merely a flesh wound. That suggests that the first part that needs to be sold off is management.