New Discovery: Scoring More Runs Is Good!

Which would you rather your team did, score an extra 12 runs every 11 days or an extra seven runs every 11 days?

Ha, trick question! Because to get this question right, you have to know something that isn't in the question.

Without this extra bit of information, Major League managers, players and broadcasters -- particularly that last group -- are getting this question wrong.

What you have to know is that scoring runs is good. Scoring more is better. Ha, I didn't mention that the first time!

And so, three times this weekend, I heard broadcasters rhapsodizing about how a batter had "sacrificed his batting average" in order to hit a ground ball to the right side that moved a runner from second to third. The phrase in quotes is from Don Sutton, a Braves announcer who pitched during the '60s and sometimes sounds like he's still there. 

The is no valor in sacrificing a runner to third. It is simply dumb.

On average, with a runner on second and none out, teams plate 1.083 (more) runs. ("More" because the team might have already scored.) With a runner on third and one out, they score, on average .94 runs. Don, that's fewer runs. Hitting to the right side to trade an out for a base diminishes a team's ability to score runs.

It's even worse with one out. Teams reduce by nearly half their run-scoring ability by trading a second out for advancing a runner to third. The advantage gained by the ability to score from third on an out is more than wiped out by all the lost possibilities that sacrificing an out derails.

Two caveats: 
1. All this assumes average players all around. Obviously, a pitcher should try to hit to the right side. So should a weak #8 hitter if a good pinch hitter waits on deck. 
2. There's nothing wrong with hitting to the right side. Making an out -- in any direction -- is where the screws loosen.

But suppose your team just needs one run? You're tied in the bottom of the ninth. Or in extra innings. Or the pitchers are dominating and one run is worth its weight in gold.* That's a different story. In that case, moving the runner to third with no one out adds a run every 25 opportunities. It's more or less a wash. But with one out it still reduces the chances from 42% to 27%.

*Runs are abstract concepts without weight, even on, like, Jupiter. Better they should be worth their number of letters in gold. Or their game score influence, though I don't know how to translate that into avoirdupois. So forget the whole thing. Runs are really important in that situation, whatever one we were talking about...

The upshot: it's generally a stupid move. Hit to the right with a runner on second, sure, but not at the expense of trying to reach base safely. Unless you're the Padres, in which case your team's goal is evidently to score fewer runs.

Parity Begins at Home

The derision funneled Seattle's way for rolling out the golden carpet to free agents Robinson Cano and Fernando Rodney, and making fat-wallet pitches to several others, has stood the test of half a season. The weak-hitting Mariners are bobbing along at two games over .500, a million games behind the Oakland steamroller.

But those two acquisitions have a middling team in the middle of the playoff hunt. On the first day of summer, Seattle stands two games out of the Wild Card, part of an eight-team scrum.

Except for Oakland and Toronto on the plus-side and Houston and Tampa Bay in the negative, the entire American League is within three games of even. That means that Cleveland, who can't win on the road; Detroit, who've lost 20 of 30; and Boston, who dropped 10, won seven and lost five straight; are all still very much in the mix.

Ditto in the senior circuit. The Dbacks, Padres, Mets and Cubs have recused themselves from the 2014 playoffs, but it's a free-for-all besides that. In the NL East, the phading, phourth-place Phils are phour notches under .500, the phiphth-worst team in the NL. And they're just 3.5 games shy of their division's lead.

It makes the competition wondrous for fans, not so much for general managers. If you're the last-place White Sox, are you buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? You're just five games out of the lead in the AL Central. How about the Yankees, currently in the lead for a Wild Card, but living large off luck and bracing for the next cascade of injuries to your geriatric club?

If you're the Rays, you're plying every contender, pretender and upender with visions of David Price hurling them to victory. There could be a long line vying for trade bait capable of helping a team win that extra game or two.

Is A Perfect Game Just Lucky?

Here's another entry from the Things We've Learned from Sabermetrics file:

No-hitters are just lucky three-hitters, and might not even be very well-pitched games.

In fact, as documented in this space, several recent whitewashings have underwhelmed. When the starter allows seven walks and a hit-by-pitch, fans just three, requires a fence-defying grab by an outfielder and enjoys an unearned strike call on a 3-2 count with the bases loaded, there's nothing to celebrate.

That's why Clayton Kershaw's essentially perfect game last night (his shortstop threw away an easy out) in an 8-0 shellacking of Colorado absolutely sparkled. There's not a ton of luck involved when the pitcher dispatches 15 batters without involving his defense. Last year's NL Cy Young Award winner employed such a filthy curveball and slider that the Rockies were able to produce only meek grounders for the majority of the remaining 12 outs.

In fact, basically any 0-walk, 15-strikeout game is a gem. Any hurler who can flummox the opposition so thoroughly is almost certainly allowing only fortunate singles. No one ever dominates the other team so profoundly while allowing six extra base hits.

Bill James's Game Score metric rates Kershaw's perfecto the second-best pitching performance in a nine-inning game ever, behind Kerry Wood's one-hit, 0-walk, 20-strikeout mindbender in May of 1998. (To make Wood's accomplishment even more amazing, he delivered it in just his fifth career start at age 20 against an excellent Astros team and received just two runs of support from the Cubs.)

Second best ever? Yeah, that sounds like Clayton Kershaw.

Time Waits for No One, And It Left Without Ryan Howard

Those were the days, my friend
We thought they'd never end.
We'd sing and dance, forever and a day.

Ah yes, the heady days when Philly's Ryan Howard and St. Loo's Albert Pujols were tearing up NL pitching. Howard snagged the Rookie of the Year and the MVP in consecutive seasons, slugging 58, 47, 48 and 45 homers, driving home 136+ four straight seasons, earning top-5 MVP finishes each year. 

Prince Albert, meanwhile, less prolific with the ribbies, got aboard at clips of .403, .394, .439, .415, .430, .431, .429, .462,  and .443, while slamming between 32 and 47 home runs. 

Back then, before the walls built against new analysis began crumbling down, there was debate about who was the better first baseman. Though Pujols hit for higher average, ran the bases far better, played vastly better defense and even matched Howard's strength -- power, there were still those who preferred the RBI machine. It's funny in retrospect.

Even in Howard's 2006 MVP season, Pujols was so laughably superior it's fun to look back. Howard wowed the voters by pacing the circuit with 58 jacks and 149 knocked in while batting .313. Not too shabby. But not Pujols-worthy. Albert "only" cranked 49 and "merely" drove home 137 while posting a higher batting average, higher on base average and higher slugging percentage. Howard ran in slo-mo and couldn't field a question. Pujols out-performed him six ways to Sunday, and earned 2.4 more wins against replacement. Just the difference between them was a year's work for a quality starting first baseman.

Fast forward to 2010, when the two stars turned 30. For a while there, in the 90s and early '00s, steroids masked the effect of aging and we all fell victim to its comely wiles. But time waits for no one unjuiced, and Albert's been no exception. Since entering his fourth decade, Pujols has missed an average of 36 games and flashed pedestrian first baseman batting skills -- 28-86-.287/.361/.525 for a total of 21 wins against replacement in four seasons plus this one.

That's how a superstar ages. Want to see how time ravages a good-but-flawed big man? Let Howard re-enter the batter's box. In these same four-plus seasons, Howard has missed 59 games-a-year and hit just 20-74-.254/.332/.472 for a total of two wins against replacement. Howard can't catch a cold, circle the bases in a fortnight, hit lefties or stay on the diamond. He's a $20 million albatross in Philly who will eventually help get Reuben Amaro fired. (Or he won't, which means denizens of the City of Brotherly Love will suffer a long, excruciating and likely futile rebuilding process.)

No one argues anymore that the immobile whiff-factory with better teammates should win the MVP on the back of plated runs. We understand OBP and SLG, the importance of defense and baserunning and everything else. It's fun to watch hindsight clear up the vision of those who couldn't see.

Case Study: Where ERA Falls Short

During discussions about the irrelevance of won-loss records for pitchers, it's been suggested to me that ERA helps balance the equation. W-L speaks of specific clutchness while ERA describes overall performance.

The small grain of truth there is that ERA certainly is vastly superior in describing pitching performance than pitching wins and losses. Indeed, despite its inability to parse defense, relief aid and luck, ERA is still a good approximation of pitching prowess. 

A game today between Cleveland and Boston at The Fens showed how ERA can go wrong.

Former Milwaukee closer John Axford entered a 2-2 game in the bottom of the ninth inning for the Indians. Axford sported a decent ERA but an awful 27/18 K/BB tally in 28 frames. That means he's offering up two free passes every three innings to accompany 24 hits, an unsustainable number of baserunners, particularly because his HR rate is unremarkable.

Axford opened the bottom of the ninth by fanning .200-hitter Daniel Nava on a 3-2 pitch before putting AJ Pierzynski aboard on balls. He moved the winning run to second by walking Grady Sizemore before whiffing Stephen Drew on a 3-2 count. On the brink of escaping, Axford uncorked a wild pitch to advance the winning run within 30 yards of fruition. And then he walked the number nine hitter, Jackie Bradley, Jr.

Ordinarily. the odds of the batting team scoring a run with two outs and the bases loaded are roughly one in three. However, without any margin for error -- most notably a walk or HBP -- manager Terry Francona had no choice but to yank his inconsistent reliever. 

Scott Atchison replaced Axford and induced a groundout by Brady Holt, allowing the Tribe to escape unscathed. (They later won on a Nick Swisher home run in the 11th.)

And so, the box score says that John Axford successfully hurled 2/3rds of an inning of scoreless ball, lowering his ERA no matter where it stood before. Of course, there's is no such thing as 2/3rds of an inning of scoreless ball. That's like two-thirds of a crime-free life. A nine-run inning could have been 2/3rds scoreless.

John Axford walked three more batters than did Cleveland's other four relievers during their six frames of work. He drove his team to the brink of defeat, saved only by his successor. The defense played no role. There were no unearned runs to complicate the matter. But his ERA declined despite a thoroughly awful performance.

Axford, sporting a jaunty 3.21 ERA, has now allowed 21 walks and 24 hits in 29 innings. That, not his ERA, is why he is a former closer.

The Pogo Stick Effect and Success in Toronto

"There's nothing I hate worse than nothing. Nothing keeps me up at night. I toss and turn over nothing. Nothing could cause a great big fight."  Edie Brickell & the New Bohemians


Energized by the all-in importation of cast-off stars, the Toronto Blue Jays lost 88 games and finished in the AL East cellar last season. So in the off-season, GM Alex Anthopoulos evaluated his squad, surveyed the landscape, and decided that his work was done. 

Sure, he upgraded a woeful catching corps by inking Dioner Navarro and a couple of moundsmen, including Tomo Ohka, whose last good season was with Montreal. But aside from that, these are your father's Toronto Blue Jays.

Canadians had to be wondering whether the club was short on loonies or just complacent. Now a third of the way through 2014 they're deciding whether Anthopoulos is brilliant or lucky to be sitting comfortably atop the AL East.

I'd vote for smart. Anthopoulos was counting on the pogo stick effect, the same one that gave us the 1991 Twins, the 2012 Giants and, in reverse, the 2013 Nationals and 2014 Pirates. 

The theory is simple and familiar. Uber-talented teams that vastly under-perform for reasons other than age are likely to bounce back the following year. Lightly-talented clubs that over-perform have the same tendency, in reverse. 

The '87 and '88 Twins won their division, but scuffled with the same core lineup in '89 and '90. Still anchored by Hrbeck, Puckett, Gagne, Gene Larkin and catcher Brian Harper, Minnesota rebounded in '91 and won the most dramatic World Series in baseball history. In the interim, GM Andy McPhail had overhauled the pitching but left the lineup alone on the expectation that they would deliver according to their talent.

The Giants, repeat champs in 2012, slumped badly in '13 and altered virtually nothing, en route to baseball's best record thus far. Only two regulars are different: Tim Hudson replaced Barry Zito in the rotation (duh.) and Mike Morse stepped in when Melky Cabrera bolted.

The Nats flipped the paradigm when they finally busted out with the Majors' best record from their raw young talent in 2012 following years of futility. Management had expected another year of youth an inexperience that year and got it instead in 2013, when Washington danced around .500 most of the season.

A similar scenario was sketched out for the Pirates this year in this space, and they are delivering. They broke out with 94 wins a year early and are paying the piper this season.

Which brings us to the Blue Jays. They reeled in too much talent in 2013 -- to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion they added Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera -- to fail for long. Though Johnson has flamed out and Dickey has failed to live up to billing, the rest of the crew is performing admirably (so far.)

The Jays have hit a rough patch in the last week and there's still plenty of time for the wheels to come off. But their success so far isn't a shock if you look at the names in the lineup. It shows that sometimes the best course of action, even following failure, is nothing.

R.I.P. Bob Welch. But Can We Have Your Cy Young Back?

It's very sad news that former Dodger and A's Bob Welch died of a sudden heart attack on Tuesday, way too young. Welch's untimely death is another sad reminder how fortunate we all are to have the luxury to obsess about things, like games, that don't really matter.

Welch enjoyed a stellar 17-year career in which he got credit for 211 wins, twirled 28 shutouts, fanned nearly 2000 batters, pitched in four World Series and eight league championship series, and earned 44 wins against replacement.

Bob Welch will best be remembered for the 1978 World Series showdown with Reggie Jackson in which he whiffed Mr. October on nothing but heaters. It's often forgotten that Jackson earned revenge with hits later in the Series -- and so did the Yankees -- sweeping the last four games for the championship.

The other claim to fame for the former first-round pick out of Eastern Michigan was his 1990 Cy Young for a 27-5, 2.95 season. No other pitcher has notched as many wins in the last 42 years.

Today, of course, we're not so easily romanced by big win totals. Examining Welch's record more deeply, it begins to deteriorate.

First, he pitched for a 103-win squad in the offensive sinkhole in Oakland. And that ERA -- 25% below league average back before steroids were prevalent -- is artificially sweetened by 12 unearned runs. His 3.40 RA is somewhat less impressive.

Welch also issued 77 walks, fanned just 127 and surrendered 26 home runs. Today we know that profile is more like a 4.19 ERA performance but for Lady Luck's accompaniment, which dampened opponents' batting average on balls in play to the unwhistleable tune of .255. 

He received six or more runs of support in 13 of his appearances and fewer than three runs just thrice. And he pitched 27 of his 35 starts against sub-.500 teams. In other words, the stars aligned in every conceivable way for Bob Welch that year, transforming a good pitcher into a 27-game winner.

In fact, Bob Welch was the 12th best starter in the American League that season, worth just three wins above replacement. The writers seemed to understand that when they voted Roger Clemens third in the MVP race for his 21-6, 1.93 dominance with 228 strikeouts. Clemens earned 10.6 WAR for his efforts -- more than three times as much as Welch, who finished ninth in the MVP balloting.

In addition to Clemens, Welch's teammate Dave Stewart (22-11, 2.56), the Angels' Chuck Finley (18-9, 2.40) and Bobby Witt (17-10, 3.36), KC's Kevin Appier (12-8, 2.76), Toronto's Dave Stieb (18-6, 2.93) and David Wells (11-6, 3.14), Seattle's Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24), Boston's Mike Boddicker (17-8, 3.36), the White Sox' Greg Hibbard (14-9, 3.16) and Nolan Ryan of Texas (13-9, 3.44) are all credited today with superior seasons.

In fact, 1990 wasn't nearly Bob Welch's best season. He posted lower ERAs three times in his career and achieved higher WAR four times, but without the gaudy win totals. In those days, all of baseballdom confused (okay, Bill James and a few acolytes didn't) the arbitrary assignment of pitcher wins as vessels of significance. We know better today. I just wish Bob Welch were around to discuss it.

Is This A Great Game, Or What?

With apologies, well actually, in homage to Tim Kurkjian, is this a great game, or what?

Twenty-fourteen is shaping up as another utterly implausible season that is nonetheless occurring. In this game, the impossible is commonplace.

In the NBA, last year's championship combatants, to no one's surprise, are this year reconvening in the title series. In MLB, last year's champs occupy next-to-last place, just ahead of a 2013 playoff team. 

The 2013 kings of the NL are scuffling along at .500, five game behind a club in baseball's smallest market (Milwaukee) that last season dropped 88 games.

The best reliever in the American League this year is the throw-in to the 2013 Wil Myers-James Sheilds trade between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Wade Davis has allowed just 11 hits and four runs in 27 innings for the Royals. None of the hits is for extra bases. This is all perfectly understandable, as AL hitters battered Davis for a 5.32 ERA last season.

On the other hand, all-world starter Justin Verlander has fanned just 60 in 86 frames and sports a thoroughly average W-L record, ERA, K/BB rate and hit rate. Who saw that coming?

Who saw steroid user Nelson Cruz returning from suspension even better than when he was juicing? He leads the league in HR (20) and OPS (1.025) for the Orioles, so what were the drugs all about?

Not only didn't we see Met pitcher Jacob de Grom coming, we didn't see him batting .556/.600/.667 a third of the way into the season. His 1.267 OPS is higher than outfielders Chris Young's and Eric Young's combined.

Whose crystal ball had the 94-win Pirates scrambling to reach .500 despite good health? Okay, ours did. But we didn't predict the Rays would be dusting off David Price's for-sale sign by June or that the mini-payroll A's would clinch the West before the All-Star break in front of teams (Texas and Anaheim) that that own Federal Reserve Banks. 

The Midas-touched Rays have lost 39 games, worst in the Majors and a number they hadn't suffered last year until a month later. The A's are winning with widespread goodness -- sort of like Switzerland. Not a single Oakland batter is hitting .300, but they're scoring five runs a game. 

The long-forsaken Blue Jays -- last year's colossal flop -- are running away with the AL East thanks almost entirely to three players -- Buehrle, Bautista and Encarnacion. If you selected Buehrle as a high-round fantasy pick there are nine guys no longer laughing at you.

Last year, Troy Tulowitzki batted .312, earned an All-Star berth and snagged MVP votes for the five-plus wins against replacement he provided the Rockies. In the first third of this season, he's already produced 90% of that value while leading the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average and runs scored.

Tampa Bay's James Loney has never been a long ball guy, but he legged out 15 triples his first three years, despite mostly part-time play. The next three seasons he collected five triples, in full-time play. In the three years since, he has yet to notch a triple. What a game.

Indians catcher/DH Carlos Santana collected MVP votes last season. This year he's on pace to walk 143 times. Good thing, because he's batting .171. Why don't they throw him strikes? They should take back the MVP votes this year.

Outfielder Seth Smith only once in his career hit better than .284/.347/.483, and that was in Denver's thin air. Now in the worst offensive park in the Majors, he's hitting .302/.405/.587. Wacky.

Houston's Dallas Keuchel entered the season with a .520 ERA. In 2014 he's doubled his K/BB ratio and cut his ERA in half. A below replacement pitcher coming into the season, he's added 3.4 wins to the Astros in 2014. And you could have had him for a buck in your fantasy league draft.

Flipside: The Bucs' Francisco Liriano anchored the rotation last season with a 16-8, 3.02 performance. He allowed nine home runs all year. This year, he's an anchor, all right. He's 1-6, 4.54 with seven jacks allowed.

How can this all be? Because it's baseball. Is this a great game, or what?

My Future for 10 Million Bucks? Where Do I Sign?

Whatever else you want to say about Jon Singleton, he's a millionaire ten times over.

Singleton is a 22-year-old, 6'2", 255-pound behemoth called up to play first base this week by the Astros after he agreed to a team-friendly deal that guarantees him $10 million over the next five years and could lock him up for another three at well-below market rates. 

Singleton was battering Triple-A pitching while Houston first basemen were making their own Triple-A case. The team offered Singleton the contract with the proviso that he would get promoted if he signed.

Teams have lately offered these risk-reward deals to their prospects before they reached arbitration. Offering it pre-promotion is the next logical step.

If this deal appears weighted towards the club for a phenom there are two good reasons for it. One is that there are holes in Singleton's swing. He may very well exit the yard his share of times but struggle to put distance between himself and the Mendoza line.

Another is that the California high school product is an admitted pot addict who returned from rehab last year in worse shape than when he entered. He may have been selling low on his own stock.

Why do it then? Because the call-up to the Bigs was contingent on a contract. Give Houston brass credit for working the system. The Astros aren't going to compete this year, so they weren't in any hurry to promote their best farmhands.

Of course, as with all such deals, Singleton has eight figures to put in the bank if it all comes apart, and 35 of these millions if it all works out. That's a pretty good fallback plan for a youth with a spotty record.

Getting Rougned Up By Unwritten Rules

With a .730 OPS, Rangers’ rookie second baseman Rougned Odor (pronounced: Roog-ned. No kidding.) is the greatest “Rougned” in baseball history. He’s also the greatest “odor” since Willie Stargell brought air fresheners into the Pirates clubhouse in 1979.
 
Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion not only tied the record for homers in May with 16, he also did a little Joe DiMaggio imitation, fanning just 14 times. David Lough laid down a similar stat line, except the first number represents hits. (Kidding: Lough doesn’t hit that well.)
 
Twins’ Phil Hughes has blossomed since leaving the Bronx. He pitched six starts without a walk before offering a pair against the Yankees in a June 1 win. That pumped his record to 6-1, 3.12 with 56 K/8 BB. And now he’s even got a win in the Bronx under his belt.
 
“Unwritten rules apply to the other team.” –Eric Karros, in an exalted Zen state.
 
For the third time in his career, Adam Wainwright leads the league in wins, and that doesn’t even include his 20-win season. Pitcher wins don’t mean much, but they don’t mean nothing. In his case, a lifetime 107-60 record reflects the fact that he’s an effective workhorse, with a lifetime 3.07 ERA. The only thing keeping him from a Hall path is a late start to his career and TJ surgery that robbed him of 2011 and limited his effectiveness in 2012. 
 
Still in the “pitcher wins don’t mean nothing” meme, Toronto’s Mark Buerhle leads the AL with a 10-1 record, notching his 14th straight 10+ win season. All but once he won at least 12. Soft-tossing Buerhle is also vying for his 14th straight 200+ inning season. At his current rate – which is unsustainable, particularly because he’s allowed just two home runs despite just five whiffs per game – he’ll finish 27-3, 2.33 in 220 innings and all of 129 strikeouts. I’d like to see it.

On the other hand, Jeff Samardzija leads the Majors with a 1.68 ERA for the Cubs, but it took him 11 starts to get his first win. Just putting pitcher wins in perspective. 
 
Charlie Blackmon update: Still hitting .313 with some power, but it’s a mirage at this point. It’s Colorado-fueled (OPS 500 points lower on the road) and mostly the legacy of a .374/.418/.616 April. Blackmon looks like a big lefty who can hit for decent average and occasional pop, and play anywhere in the outfield. And he rocks a sharp beard.
 
June 22 is Coco Crisp Garden Gnome day at the O.Co Coliseum. Tickets are plentiful. (C'mon, have you seen that sewer of a stadium?)

Another Team Icon Makes His Last Stand in 2014

While the baseball world is busy waving farewell to Derek Jeter, another icon is making his way off the stage without the fanfare or the parting gifts. 

Paul Konerko came up with the Dodgers and was traded to the Reds in his second season, but has played all but 75 of his 2300 games with the Chicago White Sox over an 18-year career. Now 38, "Paulie" has been reduced to part-time status befitting a first baseman who has lost his big bat.

Konerko has smacked 436 career bombs and driven home 1400 for the ChiSox, earning six All-Star berths and MVP votes following five seasons. He's topped 30 HR seven times and 100 RBI six times with two other seasons of 99 and 97 runs driven in. His career .844 OPS without speed or defense suggests a good player who is no threat to enter Cooperstown.

Konerko's best season was 2010, at age 34, when he went .312/.393/.584 with 39 HR, career bests at OBP and SLG. Since then, his OPS has declined dramatically each year, to the point that last year he was costing the team wins. He signed a one-year "last hurrah" $2.5 million deal this year so he could take a victory lap in Second City, but has mostly played bench warmer, hitting .171 in half-time duty with two homers.   

Of course, in another sense, his career year was '05, at age 29, when he went yard 40 times and led the ChiSox to 99 victories and a World Series sweep of Houston. Without question, Paulie was the heart and soul of that championship team, which boasted few other stars -- Mark Buerhle and the last wisps of Frank Thomas about the only other notable contributors.

Konerko's big bat and quiet leadership are beloved on the South side and about the only things, besides perhaps another Stanley Cup, the city will have to celebrate this summer. So a tip of the cap to Paul Konerko. Consider this homage your parting gift.

Well, that and $130 million lifetime earnings.