Who Will Win in the American League?

Time to tramp through the muddy waters of team projections, according to PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system. Predicting team performance is akin to predicting the content of Vladimir Putin's next outburst. But there is much to learn from the conceptually.

AL East

Boston   88-74
Tampa Bay 86-76
Toronto 83-79
Yankees 80-82
Baltimore 78-84

AL Central

Detroit  83-79
Cleveland 80-82
Chicago 79-83
Kansas City 71-91
Minnesota 70-92

AL West

Angels  91-71
Seattle  87-75
Oakland 85-77
Texas  79-83
Houston 77-85

Keep in mind that these projections tend to be conservative. Teams rarely project to high win or loss totals.

Some general observations:
PECOTA thinks the East and Central are wide open, particularly when you consider that Baltimore likes to stick its thumb in projections' eyes.

Oakland, Tampa Bay and Kansas City, all "small-market" teams, propose to win with defense. Among the trio, PECOTA foresees 87 runs saved by their defenses, or roughly 11 wins. That suggests that defense is currently the market inefficiency.

The Red Sox, Angels and Blue Jays will earn their wins with the bat. Boston's pitching is rated 13th out of 15 teams. Toronto is 14th. (The Twins are last by a wide margin.)

Seattle projects as relinquishing the fewest runs; the Astros appear to be last in flashes of leather.

The White Sox' signings don't move the needle here.

The Angels have the best roster in the junior circuit. Who could argue with that?

The Astros are becoming respectable. Many question Houston's all-or-nothing lineup but PECOTA doesn't appear too concerned.

Texas will bounce back from last season's dumpster fire, but not into contention.

Best bets: Baltimore over 78 wins. Cleveland over 80 wins.