06 April 2015

Forget About Hamiltons, the Kimbrel Trade Was About Millions

Well, apparently John Hart has been Braindrizzling himself. Reliable sources (my gut) report that Hart read this Braindrizzling post and was inspired to consider flipping Craig Kimbrel for a package of young players, salary relief and Twizzlers.

It's actually much more than a simple Superman for prospects swap that Hart pulled off with his San Diego brethren -- and much less. Kimbrel and the sunk cost formerly known as B.J. Upton -- how desperate do you have to be to change your name to Melvin? -- bring back Cameron Maybin, offsetting sunk cost Carlos Quentin, a pair of prospects and an early second-round draft pick.

Pitching prospect Matt Wisler is highly regarded, and Maybin stole 40 bases and owned centerfield for 150 games four years ago, but that's a petty haul for the greatest closer the game has ever known, half-a-decade edition.

Indeed, the Braves have basically flipped Kimbrel for savings. Upton and Kimbrel will now cost the San Diego franchise $80 million through 2017, while Quentin and Maybin amount to just $23 million of albatross. (The Braves immediately ate Quentin's contract and cut him loose.) If that $57 million difference means signing coveted draft picks above slot, coaxing an international star their way and bringing in a useful free agent in 2017, then the deal might work out.

Or, if Atlanta has reason to believe that Maybin's speed and defense can trump his fragility and whiffle bat, perhaps that's a greater return than it appears on first blush. But first blush is underwhelmed. James Shields netted for the Rays Wil Myers, a top farmhand who crushed AL pitching as a rookie. For Kimbrel, the Braves' prospect return is more volume than quality.

For the Padres, who appear to have sacrificed the rest of eternity for a 2015 pennant, this deal makes sense in that it's more of that strategy. A.J. Preller has now stripped the farm, and Kimbrel does nothing for their putrid infield or their porous outfield defense, but none of that will matter if Kimbrel leads the Padres to a crown. And with baseball's most electrifying closer mowing down batters in baseball's offensive cemetery, well, it could resurrect the undead Padres.

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