Trends of Note After One Lap

We're around the quarter pole in the 2015 season, which seems like a sensible time to begin taking note of developments. Before 40 games much of what we see is randomness and noise. Games played in parkas, impactful rookies still riding buses in Fresno and Toledo, strength of schedule weighing heavily, streaks with disproportionate bearing, that sort of thing.

By 40 games, trends that matter are starting to emerge. Not all trends are enduring but some are. So it's a good time to take stock.

Let's take a look at categories of teams by performance versus expectation:

Surprisingly wonderful
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals+
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

Wonderful as expected
Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers

Surprisingly degenerate
Oakland A's
Milwaukee Brewers@
Miami Marlins
Cleveland Indians*

Unsurprisingly degenerate
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cincinnati Reds

Back where we expected them
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Atlanta Braves

In the great middle as predicted
Everyone else

Not sure what to do with them
San Francisco Giants **

+ Might belong in the expected category
@ Might not be all that surprising
* Might be emerging from that category
** May just be on a hot streak

All of which suggests this, with three quarters of the season ahead of us:
1. A wide open AL East that might not resolve itself until Game 163. 
2. An AL West that is inconceivable: could the Triple-A Stros actually run away from Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, CJ Wilson and the National Debt of Anaheim? And Seattle's powered-pumped lineup behind King Felix?
3. The emergence of the Cubs and Mets, and the transformation of the Padres, are still at issue.

And how about these quirks:
1. The White Sox team have stolen nine bases and been caught stealing 12 times. Twelve players have 10+ steals.
2. The Pirates have hit one triple. Eighteen players have at least three.
3. No Blue Jays player has received a single intentional walk. Jose Altuve has six. Jose goes 5'6"- 165.
4. The Diamondbacks have been hit with seven pitches. Anthony Rizzo has been hit 12 times.
5. The Marlins' bullpen has four saves. Eleven pitchers have at least 12.
6. The Rangers pitching staff is without a combined shutout. Shelby Miller has thrown two himself.
7. Padres hurlers have allowed a league-leading 61 home runs so far . . . playing their home games in the toughest home park to go yard.
8. The Indians' pitching staff has averaged 10 strikeouts per game.

Love this game!