26 July 2015

Are the A's and BoSox In or Out?


The Oakland A's have allowed the fewest runs in the American League and stand fifth in tallies of their own. They also own the second worst record in the circuit, alternating in dead last with the Boston Red Sox. That would be the high-payroll, star-studded Sox of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Boegarts, Clay Bucholz and others.

Five score games into the season, both teams face dueling realities: on one hand, their personnel is several quanta better than their record and there's plenty of season left for a comeback. A couple of good weeks could put them right back in the thick of the Wild Card race. Sure, and Carly Fiorini could rally for the Republican presidential nomination. But neither is the way to bet. Both teams would be well-advised to flip short-term assets for help next year and beyond.

However...

This should not be confused with a rebuild. Both teams are talent-stocked and have the resources to compete in 2016. The A's have the human resources, the Red Sox less in-their-prime talent but more ability to import some. Relinquishing any veterans of value in exchange for long-term potential -- the modus operandi of rebuilds -- would set the A's and Sox back another year.

For the Red Sox, that limits trade bait to but a few players, and unfortunately for them, not the disastrous off-season signings of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. (Aside: I have never seen anyone so ineptly don a glove in a Major League outfield as Ramirez. He looks like a T-baller lost in daydreams among the grass blades. Baseball-Reference.com agrees, rating the deprivation of his glovework as so severe it unravels the entire value of his offense, and then some.)

Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Justin Masterson and Alejandro de Aza are all free agents after this season, having contributed a combined two wins to the team's last place charge. Whatever little this quartet might earn in return, Boston should consider. There's no place for a gloveless wonder like Napoli next year under any circumstances, and probably not for an injury-riddled 35-year-old Victorino either. Boston needs to get better on the mound and younger in the field. Anything they could get that is Big League-ready would be a bonus.

If, by some miracle, Ben Cherington can bamboozle a rival GM into taking David Ortiz, Sandoval, Ramirez and maybe Rick Porcello off his roster, all the better. By avoiding the pursuit of old, fat, slow, clueless and ineffective this coming off-season, New England's favorite team would have a chance in 2016.

Oakland's calculations are colored by cost, but that shouldn't stop the team from considering turning around multi-position asset Ben Zobrist and closer Tyler Clippard, much as they did with Scott Kazmir. All are free agents come the Fall and could bring back actual value in return.

Unlike the Red Sox, the A's have youth, positional flexibility, pitching and plenty of cost control on their side. Only two market-price contracts -- Coco Crisp and Billy Butler, each at roughly $11 million next year -- soak the books beyond this season. Consequently, there's much less imperative for a flurry of trades at the deadline. Billy Beane would be wise to simply hit the reset button next year in hopes of winning more than the 13 of 42 one-run and extra-inning affairs that have been the team's downfall this season.

Neither club has demonstrated that it's a player in 2015 but both have hopes for 2016. Their actions leading to the trade deadline should be controlled burns, leaving enough old growth and new sprouts to provide a thick forest just a year later.

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