It's that time of year when Major League teams are compelled to decide whether they're contenders or pretenders, and therefore, buyers or sellers in the non-waiver trade market. At least that's the prevailing wisdom. But not all contenders should be renting expensive properties in exchange for long-term investments, and not all bottom feeders should be swapping out their best players.
Let's take a look at some of the most intriguing teams.
First, let's speak truth to power pitching. If anyone thought the Reds were a serious contender this year after trading Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos in the off-season they were smoking more than pork. Likewise, the team is not going to contend for Johnny Cueto's continued services after this season. They should jettison their oft-injured stud starter and concentrate on signing Mike Leake and developing some talent for the future.
Speaking of power pitching, there are the Mets. Their management is smart enough to know that the playoffs are beyond their reach in 2015. But with their bevy of young rotation pieces they have the bulwark of a future contender. Flipping young talent for a veteran rental would be lunacy, but if the Mets could dangle some excess farm arms to obtain a Major League bat, they would be a force to reckon with starting in 2016.
The Astros are for real in 2015 and beyond, but they're another team that should not sacrifice the future for some veteran bottled lightning. The youngest team in MLB, Houston should stick with the plan, and if this year doesn't pan out, it wasn't supposed to anyway.
It's a different story for the Dodgers and Nationals. Their future is now, but L.A. needs some rotational help and Washington needs a bat. They should be willing to pull the trigger on a potential-for-present value deal. The Dodgers need help after Kershaw and Greinke; the Nats are so weak at the plate that Dan Uggla has found employment with them.
If the Rockies have visions of a playoff berth anytime between now and 2021, they'd be idiots to trade Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is signed for six years, so exporting him, as rumors suggest, means they don't believe they're contenders anytime in the next half dozen seasons. Unless they know something about him that diminishes his value (he's hitting .319 with good defense this year) they should build around him.
The Brewers are a dumpster fire, poisoned by the bad karma of Ryan Braun's return (and possibly a complete lack of pitching.) Third baseman Aramis Ramirez, starter Kyle Lohse and reliever Jonathan Broxton will be seeking the highest bidder come October. They aren't much, but they could bring back something, which is more than Milwaukee has now.
The Blue Jays went all in for this year and now find themselves among the AL East muddle, thanks to the best offense in baseball. With Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey and Jose Bautista on expiring contracts, Toronto needs to fill holes ASAP. They should do whatever it takes to stop the bleeding at closer and get another rotational arm.
The Padres are the 2015 version of the 2013 Blue Jays, 2012 Marlins, 2011 Brewers. They created a window of opportunity and threw all the assets they could find in the house. It worked for Milwaukee, who won 96 games that year, but crashed in Miami and Toronto. It's come up snake eyes so far in San Diego, and it might be time to make some adjustments. Does A.J. Preller double down, pull the plug or tweak? There aren't any minor league assets to swap, so further investment in the present is unlikely. The Pads may have to ride out the season and see what develops.
The A's were an off-season mystery and have continued their whodunit ways. They've outscored opponents by 50 runs and have the league's second worst record. The supporting data suggests a bounce back, but even if life worked that way they have a lot of ground to make up. Billy Beane is just the man for that job.
Braves announcers talk as if Atlanta is in a Wild Card chase. Puh-leeze. When two games under .500 is a pleasant surprise you know October will be vacation time. GM John Hart has his eyes set on 2017 and the players to make it work. Don't expect him to lift a finger.
The Marlins made bizarre noises about a playoff run this year when they picked up Dan Haren, who has delivered, and Mat Latos, who hasn't. With a juvenile roster featuring Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich and Adeiny Hechavarria, Miami will improve with some seasoning. If they can get anything for the two veteran hurlers fine; if not, they should carry on. I'd keep Ichiro around to show the youngsters what preparation means.
And then there are the Phillies. They should sell everything not nailed down, including the rotting remains of Ryan Howard's gargantuan contract, the Gatorade dispenser, the final days of Ruben Amaro, Jr.'s tenure as GM and next week's clubhouse buffet. The problem is, recompense would flow away from Philadelphia to unload everything there but the food. On the other hand, Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon have some value. They need to get something for those guys because the Phils' next meaningful game will not be during Barak Obama's presidency.
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