18 July 2015

The Big Reveal About Clayton Kershaw

If you watched the All-Star Game, you saw the moundsman who last year didn't even give up anything to the opposition for Lent allow a pair of runs and absorb the loss. Because the All-Star Game is an exhibition asymptotic to not mattering at all, no one could accuse him of choking in a big moment. In fact, he was responsible for the loss in a meaningless contest.

On the other hand, when he allowed a couple of ill-timed home runs in the playoffs last year, the prevailing narrative was that he "isn't a big-time pitcher" or "isn't a great post-season pitcher" or whatever colloquialisms get spewed to indicate transparent nonsense. 

Compared to his regular season, when he went 21-3, 1.77 and led the NL in basically everything that mattered, Clayton Kershaw could hardly have measured up in the playoffs. In fact, other than the home runs, Kershaw was the same magician in the post-season, fanning 19 and walking two. (I recognize that I've just made an "other than that Mrs. Lincoln" kind of statement, but it's relevant to understand that over 12 innings the result of three pitches can get exaggerated.)

Making matters worse, the Claw was being compared to Madison Bumgarner, who got filthier in the playoffs than Pig Pen. Leading the Giants nearly single-handedly through the playoffs to a World Series championship, MadBum's six starts and one long relief appearance stand in contrast to Kershaw's struggles.

But maybe you've noticed, those struggles have continued in 2015, at least relative to Kershaw's previous four Cy Young seasons. He's halfway through his worst full season, with the lowest ERA+ (i.e., relative to league average) since his rookie campaign.

Would you like to guess why that is? Right: his home run rate has doubled. He's dominating batters in every other way just as he had the previous two seasons, but Mr. Big Fly has already visited him more times this season than all of last. That's led to more crossings of the plate than all of last year, which makes him look a lot more human.

So here's the big reveal: Clayton Kershaw didn't become a different pitcher in last year's playoffs. He started to become a different pitcher then and has continued that way this season. Despite his pinpoint control and knee-buckling curve, he's lost that patina of invincibility, either because he's doing something different or because batters have adjusted in some small way to him. He's still an ace, an All-Star, a Cy Young candidate, but he's not the undisputed best in the game, at least not now.

So, there goes the idiotic narrative -- based on two starts! -- that Clayton Kershaw is a great regular season pitcher, but not the guy you'd want in a big game. 

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