You Could Have Predicted the 2015 MVPs in 2012

Baseball is cruel.

In a 2-2 game with the Rockies, Braves closer Jason Grilli pitched to one batter in the ninth. He induced a soft grounder in the first base hole fielded easily by Chris Johnson, but the runner earned a hit when Grilli tore his Achilles covering first.

Reliever Dave Aardsma faced three batters, fanning one, walking one and hitting one to load the bases. Mike Foltynewicz entered and allowed the game-winning bloop hit. The run and the loss were charged to Grilli, whose frying (or perhaps Grilling) will involve larger fish, like massive pain killers, surgery and rehabbing for next season at 38 years of age.

Is there anything sillier -- not withstanding Donald Trump's ramblings -- than the aphorism that the teams leading their divisions at the All-Star break will survive the scrum? A week ago, Houston enjoyed a five game lead over Anaheim in the AL West; today they're percentage points apart. A week ago, the Giants and Dodgers were neck and neck in the NL West; L.A. now leads the division by 5.5 games while San Fran bobs around .500. And the entire AL East, sans Boston, was a knot last week; three games separate the Yankees  from the crowd today, despite an up-and-down week for the Bombers.

Despite similar pre-season expectations, fans of the Red Sox are hopeful as we enter the mid-season break while Tigers supporters are apoplectic. You'd never know the Sox have lost four more times than they've prevailed while the Tigers stand a game above .500. Both teams entered the season with pitching concerns in a winnable division. But Detroit has scuffled more than expected while the Royals and Twins have been shockingly adept. Meanwhile, the AL East has delivered as advertised, sporting the worst first-place winning percentage in the game. And despite miserable pitching (last in ERA) and sloppy defense (below average in zone rating and errors), Boston is on the upswing, closer to first than the Tigers by three games.

There's also reason for optimism in New England. David Ortiz and Mike Napoli have fought demons at the plate that each has demonstrated an ability to vanquish in the second half. Rookie hurler Eduardo Rodriguez gives them a second starter behind Clay Bucholz. The return of Dustin Pedroia from the DL and the insertion of Alejandro de Aza in the outfield add two more data points to the positive calculations.

At Comerica, the math isn't adding up. The home nine have already enjoyed the fruits of a monster lineup that ranks first in OPS and third in runs scored, leaving little room for improvement. The woeful pitching will depend on a breakout from Justin Verlander following a triceps injury that has limited him to five awful starts. Absent that, there's not much to bank on going forward.

The first half 2015 MVPs are exactly who you predicted they would be in 2012: Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Extrapolating them for a full season, Trout will hit .309 with 52 home runs and 11.8 WAR. Harper would be at .341 with 52 home runs and 12.4 WAR. Neither one is 24 yet. Hello, Cooperstown?

Dallas Keuchel is all of 27 and Zack Greinke is a grizzled 31-year-old veteran. They're your first half Cy Young laureates. Keuchel is 11-4, 2.23 and leads the league in innings pitched (137) shutouts (two) and WAR (4.7). Greinke leads the NL is ERA (1.39), innings pitched (123) and WAR (5.4). The full season award would sit beside another: Greinke earned the Cy in 2009 for Kansas City.

When A.J. Pollock is introduced at the All-Star game next week, many will mutter. Like you, few baseball fans outside of Phoenix have heard of him or seen him play. At age 27, Pollock's full half-season follows about a half season of work last year. Combined, the skilled center fielder has produced a .302/.352/.483 batting line with 18 homers, 99 runs scored and 7.9 WAR. His glove will keep him on the field, so if he continues to deliver even average offense you can add his name to the long list of young stars glittering in the baseball universe these days.