A Good Decision That Didn't Work

What's the difference between a good decision and a bad one? If you said a good one works out well and a bad one doesn't, you're exactly wrong.

If we knew the outcomes of our decisions for sure, they wouldn't be decisions. I don't "decide" to brush my teeth in the hopes that I'll remove food and plaque; I brush them -- every single week, sometimes twice -- because I know that will be the result. 

A good decision is one made for good reasons, free from irrational emotion and based on a thorough accounting of the facts, the best understanding possible of the potential outcomes and a reasonable estimation of their odds. Baked into that equation is the possibility of failure.

That brings us to a decision by Blue Jays manager John Gibbons on Friday that cost Toronto the lead, the game and first place during their tilt with the Yankees. Gibbons is being excoriated both for not replacing ace starter David Price to start the eighth inning and for pulling him four batters later.

Price took the mound for the eighth time that night with a 3-0 cushion and 90-something pitches thrown. The unflappable lefty, whom Toronto had coaxed from Detroit in a deadline deal for just these kinds of weighty encounters, has a demonstrated ability to go 110-120 pitches deep into a game. Leaving him in was perfectly defensible.

With one out, Price hit the skids. He surrendered three straight hits, including Chase Headley's run-scoring double that left runners on second and third and the go-ahead run at the plate. With 112 pitches thrown, Gibbons exercised the hook and inserted right-hander Aaron Sanchez to face righty Chris Young.

It's likely that Gibbons knew pulling Price would bring switch-hitter Carlos Beltran in to pinch-hit. The 18-year veteran has no platoon splits to speak of -- he gets on base slightly more from the left side and hits with a little more power from the right. For what little it's worth, he was a dumpster fire batting against lefties last season.

Price had become ineffective. The pitch count was starting to matter. Sanchez had been turning out the lights for the previous several weeks, allowing one run in his previous 11 appearances. It was a perfectly defensible decision, and probably the right one.

It just didn't work out. Beltran socked a two-strike pitch into the seats to give the Yankees the lead, the win and first place. 

There was a lot of talk in Baseball land about those two decisions, particularly the switch. It's all made with hindsight. Gibbons makes dozens of decisions each game and on the difficulty barometer, this one was not very high up.  He played the odds, bet the seven and came up snake eyes. It was still the right decision.