29 August 2015

The Bonanza of Breakout Stars

Remember the kerfuffle over Kris Bryant's demotion to Triple-A for two weeks to start the season and stay his service clock? That move has devastated his performance so that he leads Major League rookies in plate appearances and WAR, and is hitting for a .319 True Average.

Oh, the humanity!

And though Bryant is the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidate, you've probably noticed that he isn't alone among breakout stars this year. Indeed, we've seen a bonanza of first-year players in 2015. Fifty-one rookies are on pace to earn a win above replacement this season, with 38 of them already there. That compares to 33 all last year.

Twenty rookies are on pace for two WAR, compared to 13 last year. Two WAR is roughly what a player needs over a full season to start at his position. Consider that many of these newbies have not played a full season, yet will achieve starter-quality status.

Take keystoner Enrique Hernandez, who has cracked the gunslinging Dodger lineup for 190 plate appearances and a .305/.349/.500 performance. If he plays effectively full-time through the end of the regular season, he'll earn more than three WAR in just 380 plate appearances. That's All-Star quality.

And maybe most telling to the untrained eye, eight of the top rookies by WAR toil for playoff contenders -- Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Blue Jays, Twins. You're hearing their names because they are having a real impact on pennant races (and because several of them were named to the All-Star team.) (Their names are: Bryant, Matt Duffy, Jung-ho Kang, Randall Grichuk, Carlos Correa, Kyle Schwarber, Devon Travis and Trevor May.)

And that doesn't include some mid-season call-ups torching the league the first time through -- Michael Conforto and Sean Gilmartin of the Mets, Miguel Sano of the Twins and Stephen Piscotty of St. Louis, to name four.

Beyond that, these are no Bob Hamelins or Scott Williamsons, whose career path headed roughly straight down from their Rookie-of-the-Year seasons. Correa is already being called the best shortstop in the game. Bryant, Schwarber, L.A.'s Joc Pederson, the Phils' Maikel Franco, the Blue Jays' Roberto Osuna and the Mets' Noah Syndergaard are considered future stars.

All this helps explain why the standings are upside down, with Houston, New York and Kansas City near the top and Oakland, Washington and Boston scuffling. It's been a magical regular season and we can thank a gaggle of guys with short resumes for part of that.


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