02 August 2015

There Are No Playoff Favorites

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
--George Santayana

Now that teams have re-positioned the linen on a laundry list of free agents and more starkly defined the balance of power in the two leagues, we're starting to hear some of the usual late-season drivel from the baseball media.

Specifically, you're starting to hear about who the pennant favorites are, as if there are no lessons to be gleaned from past post-seasons.

I even read one story by a former general manager calling the Royals the "odds-on favorites" to return to the World Series.

Right, because Kansas City entered last year's playoffs as clearly the best team. Oh wait, no they didn't. In fact, they had a 50% chance of being eliminated even before the playoffs really began.

Which was the same path paved by the World Champion Giants, who entered the post-season with the worst record among playoff teams and a sub-.500 second half.

In 2012, the teams with the four best records -- Oakland, New York, Washington and Cincinnati -- all fell to lesser teams. Indeed, three of the four lost in the first round. The Yankees fell in the ALCS to a Tigers team without a bullpen -- the secret sauce we correlate with post-season success.

In 2011, the Cardinals trailed the Brewers by six games at season's end, but enjoyed the final dogpile of the season.

And so on going back to the advent of the Wild Card. The playoffs are a flat out lottery. Get into the tournament, then get healthy, get hot and get lucky.

So who are the World Series favorites this year? No one, the same as every other year. 

Some teams could be said to be favorites in the sense that they will likely make the tournament, which 20 teams won't. But even if they win their division, the odds are 3-1 against them flying a 2015 pennant.

It would be nice if baseball "journalists" and "analysts" could make such calculations. But they're reluctant to remove their shoes in public.


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