An axiom of prognosticating the future performance of veterans who break out is to regress them back to the mean. Last year, Chris Davis regressed to the mean, the meaner and the meanest, putting his starting job with Baltimore in jeopardy.
This year, the bulky first baseman has found his own true average by mashing like he did in 2013 but without the gaudy average. The point with him is that as long as he goes yard and collects his walks he can be awfully valuable.
Let's take a look at the numbers:
In his first four seasons with Texas and Baltimore, Davis contributed below-average production at the plate while flashing 20-home-run power.
Then in 2013 he raked .286/.370/.634 with a league-leading 53 homers, 42 doubles and 138 RBIs, earning third place in the MVP voting.
Last season, the bottom fell out. His average sank to .196 with 26 home runs. Lumbering and defensively-challenged, Davis was a liability for the Orioles.
If you averaged those two seasons you'd get a .250 batting average with 40 home runs. With 60-70 walks, that's a middle-of-the-lineup Gulliver. Davis was headed that way, but at a lower batting average until he got hot, roughly coinciding with the O's collapse.
Today Chris Davis has the slash line up to .260/.351/.556 with 41 home runs. He's above four wins over replacement at the plate, which puts him at All-Star level with two dozen games yet to play.
When three true outcomes players like Davis -- i.e., he walks, strikes out or homers on most at bats -- get their average up to .260 they radically enhance their value, even beyond their own stat line. Opposing pitchers have to account for him every time the top of the order rolls around because of the damage he can do. That means pitching more carefully to everyone else, which leads to more opportunities up and down the lineup.
Davis is unlikely to ever again crush the record books the way he did two years ago. But .260 with 70 walks and 40 home runs will do just fine.
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