17 September 2015

The Moment the Rangers' Season Turned Around

You may have noticed that the season, and the Texas Rangers, have finally caught up with the youthful Houston Astros. The Rangers have launched themselves into first place in the AL West with a 31-15 record since July 28, when  the Yankees blitzed them 21-5.

It's also two days before the Rangers plucked Cole Hamels out of Philadelphia.

Texas stood five games under .500, eight games out and in third place. 

So as you might imagine, all the talk this week has been about identifying the catalyst for the Rangers' rebirth.

Did the shellacking by New York incite new determination?

Did a players-only meeting light a spark?

Did Hamels bring new energy?

Of course, that's only how it works in Ex Post Facto Analysisland. In real life, teams make large improvements by compiling a series of small improvements until they reach a critical mass.

Certainly Hamels, and the return from injury of Derek Holland, helped. They bumped two replacement-level starters from the rotation. That meant Colby Lewis and Yovanni Gallardo no longer had to shoulder the load.

Consequently, at least in part, the Rangers lopped a run off their ERA after August 1.

In addition, after splitting their first 42 one and two-run games before July 28, Texas captured 17 of 24 close games. Timely hitting and relief pitching can do that.

The offensive juggernaut of the first half hasn't slowed and the defensive metrics say the fielding is up a tick. Put that all together and wheels once stuck in the mud gain traction. It didn't hurt that the Rangers have played 26 of their last 42 against losing teams.

We have a tendency to look for that epiphany, that one moment where the worm turned. We attribute it all to something that correlates with the hot streak without any evidence of causation. You see it all the time with managerial changes, as if a new manager could transform a lousy nine into world beaters in his first day.

Ranger manager Jeff Bannister had it exactly right today when asked what sparked the turnaround. He said Spring Training, where the team adopted a never-quit culture.  That's a far better explanation than a team meeting, a clubhouse presence or a bad loss.

Though acquiring Cole Hamels doesn't hurt.


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