19 December 2015

Are We In A New Era of Baseball?

Remember the 2000s, which began with Barry Bonds decapitating the record books and the Yankees winning their third straight World Series, and ended with Barry Bonds decapitating the record books and the Yankees winning the World Series? 

Ah, those were the days. Chicks dug the long ball and there was plenty to dig. Thirty-four players smashed 30+ home runs in 2006, including renowned sluggers Joe Crede, Bill Hall and Nick Swisher; just 20 hitters tallied 30 this past season. League average OPS for that year was 47 points higher; teams averaged 100 more runs.

Since 2010, the worm has begun to turn. The Giants, Royals, Cardinals, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers and Rangers have played in the World Series since 2010. The Yankees missed the playoffs the last three years.

In 2010, runs, hits, doubles per game all dropped to their lowest levels in years, and all have stayed low. The walk rate dropped below 1968's level in 2011 and hasn't bounced back. The new strikeout record was first set in 2008 at 6.8 per nine innings and has steadily risen to 7.8 in 2015. Baseball's ERA fell below 4.00 in 2011 and has remained below all but one of the last five years. 

It appears we are in a new era of baseball. The Steroid Era, The Longball Era, The Era of Offense -- whatever you want to call it, it's officially over. Many cynics believe that testing for steroids has made the difference, but there seem to be other factors as well. Consider these events since 2012:

1. The transition in the Commissioner's office from Bud Selig to Rob Manfred
2. The new CBA kicking in, with its changes to the amateur draft and to free agency
3. The emergence of the Pirates, Royals, Astros, Mets and Cubs as competitive franchises, and the decline of the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, and (to a lesser extent) Yankees
4. The A-Rod and Ryan Braun suspensions
5. The wave of front office changes, which have dimished the importance of the traditional "GM" role - as teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays, etc. bring in big names with titles like Director of Baseball Operations while still keeping a GM
6. The arrival of the next generation of superstars: Trout, Harper, Bryant, Machado, Correa, Sano
7. Increasing use of defensive shifts

I'm not sure the significance -- if any. Eras come and go. Whatever era you grew up during is the best to you, though it seems pretty clear to me that the 50s was an awful time to be a baseball fan, particularly if you didn't live in New York. A New York team won eight of the 10 World Series during that decade (and one of the other two was the Dodgers, who had just moved to L.A.) and made 14 of the 20 appearances. Unless you lived in Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland or Philadelphia, your team failed to appear in the playoffs even once, and no American League team other than the pinstripes won a championship. (The Yankees played in the World Series every year from 1960-'64, for added insult.)

We might look back on this as the Trout-Harper era, or maybe the return to normalcy.


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