The Price Was Right For This Fine Starter

Denis Leary and his New England compadres are happy this week. New Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski landed seven years of David "High" Price for $217 million of John Henry's monies.* They have reason to cheer: Boston lagged the AL in pitching last year, accounting for its cellar-dwelling in the East. Adding Price to lockdown closer Craig Kimbrel, the Beaneaters appear much improved for next season.

*There's an opt-out clause for the hurler after three years but he's less likely to exercise it than previous players with mid-contract options because his deal is backloaded.

This is a good signing for the best mound option on the market, with all due respect to Zack Greinke. Price's track record is not just superb, it's consistent and it's mostly been accomplished in the Red Sox's division.

But if you want to dance the jig for a great pitcher signing, go to Detroit. Jordan Zimmermann can now buy all the vowels he needs with a shiny new five-year, $110 million contract.

Consider that: The Red Sox get David Price for two more years -- presumably his worst two -- at an additional cost of $107 million.

Let's consider the tale of the tape over the last five years:
Pitcher              Age ERA  ERA+  INN  WAR
Zimmermann   29   3.14  123   971    19.5
Price                  29   3.02  127   1090  23.0

David Price is a better pitcher than Jordan Zimmermann. He's bigger, stronger and more durable. He's left-handed. He's spent his entire career in the tougher-hitting league. And he's lauded for his clubhouse demeanor.

A win against replacement is worth roughly $8 million these days, give or take my net assets. If the past five years are an indication of their future performance, Price is worth about $28 million more over five years than Zimmermann. But the Red Sox will pay him $107 million more for those five and his age 36 and 37 seasons. Let's call him an average starter those two years and say a win is worth $10 million in 2021. That's still only about half the difference.

It's not surprising that this deal tilts towards the team (but hardly away from the player. He is after all, guaranteed a million dollars 110  times over.)  Early free agent signings tend to set the stage for more lucrative contracts after them. Even accounting for that, the Tigers got themselves a great get.

Everything went sideways at Comerica last season to land the team in the Central basement, and they still have some home improvements before they can pronounce themselves cured for 2016. Signing Zimmermann gives them a frontline starter they badly needed and plenty of leftover liquidity to purchase a bullpen, a catcher and another starter.