29 November 2015

We Interrrupt This Broadcast For Mike Trout, 2015 Edition

What do Steve Garvey, Paul Blair, Tim Wakefield, Frank Howard, Bill Mazeroski, Rick Wise, Pie Traynor, Frank White, Brady Anderson and Tom Gordon have in common?

It's the same characteristic shared by Joe Adcock, Harvey Haddix, Willie McGee, Ron Gant, Bobby Thompson, Rick Monday, Pat Hentgen and Rico Carty.

They were all very accomplished Major League Baseball players. They all played 14 or more seasons at the highest level.

And they all earned fewer wins against replacement than Mike Trout -- who is only 23.

Trout has now led the league in WAR each of his first four seasons. He's won a Rookie of the Year, an MVP and three second place MVP finishes. He should have been first each time.

Trout this year slugged 41 home runs and led the AL in slugging percentage, OPS and True Average. He plays a key up-the-middle position. You've seen the highlight reel.

Trout's lifetime TAv is .352. That means, if you see the world through batting average lenses, put all of Mike Trout's attributes together and he's a .352 kind of guy. Willie Mays, over his career, was a .339 kind of guy.

Mike Trout is the same flavor as Willie Mays. Plus sprinkles.

So don't feel too badly for Shawn Green, Derek Lowe, Ken Griffey Sr., B.J. Surhoff, Rick Sutcliffe, Barry Zito, Ted Kluszewski, Richie Hebner, Smokey Burgess and Garry Maddox.

And quit your sniggling Lou Brock, Vida Blue, Gil Hodges, Rusty Staub, Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Jack Morris, Dizzy Dean and Rocky Colavito. You're next!

24 November 2015

Craig Kimbrel Stunk In 2015 . . . Relative to Craig Kimbrel

You've likely heard the news that closer Craig Kimbrel is house-hunting again -- in his third city this calendar year.

The Padres acquired Kimbrel from the Braves in one of those modern-day swaps in which one team gets by far the best player and by far the worst contract in exchange for some lesser players and prospects. One team gets future value and salary relief -- i.e. money -- and the other makes a blockbuster move for right now.

But as you now know, but San Diego GM AJ Preller did not at the time, his team face-planted and now needs to regroup. So he off-loaded Kimbrel to Boston for four farmhands.

It's Kimbrel's first foray in the American League, so the results will be interesting. But we already know how he would fare away from The South. The Alabama native suffered the worst season of his career -- fewest games, fewest innings, fewest strikeouts, lowest K rate, most runs allowed, highest ERA by nearly double, most home runs allowed and only season without Cy Young votes.

That's some disaster, huh? Well, not quite. Kimbrel's 39 saves for that 74-win jalopy aren't too shabby, nor are his 2.58 ERA, his 13.2 K per nine innings or his K/BB ratio of four. He still fanned more than a third of the batters he faced.

In addition, he front-loaded most of his struggles. In the second half, Craig Kimbrel was so unhittable it was like he was ... Craig Kimbrel. The league batted .120 against him, managed four extra base hits and saddled him with a 1.73 ERA.

It's a testament to how transcendent Kimbrel had been that he could fall so far to that. If he returns to form at Fenway he'll be the toast of New England.

21 November 2015

A. J. Pierzynski's Unprecedented Season

And so, as noted here, A. J. Pierzynski made history in 2015.

The 38-year-old Pierzynski outplayed the Braves' backstop of the future and produced an above-average hitting line despite squatting in 112 games.

The 18-year veteran of seven Major League clubs produced .300/.338/.422 slash stats, a .281 True Average and two-and-a-half wins above replacement for the Braves, 14% better than the average hitter, whatever his position. 

Two wins cost, on average, about $16 million in today's game. Pierzynski provided Atlanta with that, plus another half win, plus that highly-coveted veteran presence, at a cost of just $2 million. (Fat lot of good it did the team.)

But beyond being a bargain, Pierzynski was arguably -- and it's a pretty convincing argument -- the greatest hitting 38-year-old catcher of all time.

Here are the list of backstops, either now or soon to have their likenesses carved in bronze and displayed in a museum on the banks of Lake Otsego, who could not produce even average batting lines in their age 38 season:

  • Johnny Bench
  • Yogi Berra
  • Carlton Fisk
  • Ivan Rodriguez
  • Mike Piazza
  • Roy Campanella
  • Bill Dickey
  • Mickey Cochrane
  • Gary Carter

The three catchers in all of baseball history who could still lay the lumber at that advanced age were HOFers Gabby Hartnett and Ernie Lombardi, and near-great Jorge Posada. But none of them caught even 85 games, compared to Pierzynski's 112. (He also DH'd once.)

Atlanta has Pierzynski signed for next season at $3 million. He could contract Diptheria before the season commences, return after the All-Star break for one game in which he succumbs to the Golden Sombrero, tear his sternocleidomastoid the next day, throw up into the stands on Fan Appreciation Day and spend the last game on the bench Tweeting a photo of Fredi Gonzalez performing fellatio on Freddie Freeman in the clubhouse -- and still have earned far more than his salary over the course of his deal.

And he probably won't. So hats off to A.J. Pierzynski.

13 November 2015

Saved From the Perils of G-G-G-Gambling

News item: The New York State attorney general ordered the two biggest daily fantasy sports companies, DraftKings and FanDuel, to stop accepting bets from New York residents, saying their games constituted illegal gambling under state law.

Oh thank you Mr. Schneiderman, you five-card stud, and your counterparts in neighboring states, for sheltering us from the scourge of gambling! Games of chance are dangerous for the public because they might spend more money than they can afford. Gambling is the devil's work. It's an addictive drug.

(No doubt, many of you read that news item while downing a cup of coffee, without which you're inert in the morning.)

Now, because of the heroic efforts of law enforcers everywhere, Americans from coast to coast are free from the ravages of games of chance.

  • Except for state-controlled lotteries.
  • Except for the entire state of Nevada.
  • Except for casinos on Indian lands.
  • Except for casinos aboard riverboats.
  • Except for casinos aboard cruise ships.
  • Except for Internet gambling sites.
  • Except for NCAA office pools.
  • Except for Super Bowl bar games.
  • Except for church bingo games.
  • Except for charity raffles.
  • Except for Wall Street day trading.
  • Except for season-long fantasy games.
  • Except for the billions bet on sporting events every day.
  • Except for horse racing venues.
  • Except for Off Track Betting. 
  • Except...well, let's not let details get in the way.

Good thing gambling is illegal in this country. Its comforting to know that government is keeping us all safe.


10 November 2015

About That Whole "Cubs Fans Can Dream On" Thing...

You may recall this post back in April. I made a bit of a to-do about the folly of predicting a Cubs playoff appearance. At the risk of quoting that brilliant philosopher, my own personal self, here's what I said at the time:

"...not since 2008, coming off a roaring 97-win season, has hope taken residence so distant from reality."

Right. Well, about that.

See, here's the thing about predictions in baseball: you can be flat wrong about everything and still call the winner. Or you can nail the logic but get foiled by the vagaries of the game. If you placed those two ideas on opposite ends of the street, I'd be standing on the corner of Well-reasoned and Wrong.

The point of that article was that the Cubs were coming off an 89-loss season even while many of their young players; think Jake Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendrick and Starlin Castro; had already blossomed. Despite the addition of Jon Lester and Dexter Fowler; not to mention manager Joe Maddon; and the imminent arrival of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and that group; it seemed wise to counsel patience. Rookies not named Vida, Fernando, or The Bird don't generally rocket to success immediately. Some veteran acquisitions don't pan out. Sophomores often stumble following promising freshman seasons. And empty rosters don't unempty themselves just because a couple of newbies join the ranks.

So what happened? All the touted met their tout line, plus 235 pounds of Kyle Schwarber arrived mashing. Jake Arrieta got in touch with his inner Superman. None of the top four starters missed a start. Lester and Fowler played as advertised. The squad served as windshield to the injury bug. New manager Joe Maddon thrilled everyone and the team emerged victorious 97 times plus change in the playoffs.

The point is, that post was right. It was unreasonable to expect the Cubs to blossom all at once, maintain the gains of the previous season and enjoy the fruits of veteran labor without some setbacks. That can happen, it does, and it did. But that's not the way to bet.

The stories were similar in Flushing, Houston and Minnesota, which is why I wasn't too sanguine on any of those teams' chances. The Nationals and Angels are more talented than all of those teams, but sometimes, it's more important how much lightning is in the bottle than how much talent. And nowhere was that more obvious than with the Cubs.


08 November 2015

The New Trend That Won't Be

Far be it for me to pass judgment on the latest fashion. I was recently invited to an event in which we were encouraged to wear 90s styles, so I wore my usual attire. I couldn't actually tell you what was fashionable in the 90s, except that I wasn't wearing it then.

I stopped paying attention to pop music way before Justin Bieber was born (though possibly because of that), and see ads for TV shows I've never heard of on networks I've never heard of starring actors I've never heard of. I keep up with the Cashins, not the Kardashians.

And I'm still not clear what birds are angry or why.

So maybe I'm not the great trend spotter, but here's one trend I can publicly dismiss.

The False Narrative
During the World Series, one of the false narratives took shape around the construction of the World Champion Kansas City Royals, a low-payroll juggernaut with the best AL record making a second straight Series appearance.

Unlike the Moneyball A's, built around on base percentage and power, the Royals are a high batting average team without power. They led the league in fewest strikeouts and fewest walks, hit the second fewest home runs and paid no nevermind to "working the count." They put a premium on speed, athleticism and defense. On the mound, they trotted out a series of third and fourth starters and let the bullpen dominate.

And this, it's been suggested, is the next wave of roster-building.

Sigh.

Let's jettison the opening shibboleths before we wade into the facts.

Moneyball is Obsolete
First, there is nothing Sabermetric about OBP and power. What was special about the 2000 A's is that they realized that OBP and power were under-priced in the baseball labor market and therefore they could afford to sign those sorts of players. Walks and homers were cheap; singles and speed were expensive. That, of course, is no longer true.

In addition, the Royals are in a unique situation. Their home park is the size of a National Park. The grassy outfield has a zip code. Speed and defense are especially advantageous in that park; slugging is exceedingly difficult. Walks -- a key component of OBP -- are now appropriately valued, so for a small market team like Kansas City, the more cost-effective way to get on base is by making contact on a field with such wide gaps. In other words, don't try this at home.

Uh-oh: Here Come Facts
Now the facts: the Royals owe their success much less to their approach than to their talent. Lorenzo Cain became an MVP contender this year. Mike Moustakas learned to hit the other way and foiled the shift that foiled him last year. Eric Hosmer fulfilled his potential. Alex Gordon was already a star and Sal Perez rakes relative to his position. So if you want a team construction concept to emulate, here it is -- get really good players.

Lost amid the World Series hype is KC's Achilles heal, one that, largely by luck, avoided exploitation. This was a team reliant on their starting nine like no other, but because the injury gods smiled upon them, their lack of depth was not tested. (I made that very point in May.) Just three non-regulars came to bat 100+ times; the Mets by contrast had nine backups come to the plate that often -- for one less position. There again, building a team virtually free of injury is unquestionably a strategy worth copying.

It might be that GM Dayton Moore has systematically drafted, developed and signed players who make contact and flash leather. It's said (now in retrospect, though I never heard it at the time) that he traded Wil Myers for James Shields in that odd 2013 swap with Tampa Bay because Myers had swing and miss tendencies. But much of this has to be happenstance. The players who prospered in the Minors -- and in Kaufman Stadium -- were these kinds of players, so these are the types who comprise the roster. Teasing out cause and effect is tricky business, especially from where you and I sit.

There may be other franchises that take a swing at the Royals' model, especially those in big parks like San Diego and -- snicker -- Citi Field, where the front office is cost-controlled. It makes no sense in Fenway, Wrigley or Coors, or generally most anywhere else. Which means, you're unlikely to get invited to a 2035 party and encouraged to dress as a contact hitter from 2015.

06 November 2015

The World Series That Wasn't

Think back to the World Series of 2005 when the White Sox swept the Astros in four games. The cumulative game tally failed to capture the intra-contest drama of that Fall Classic.

Chicago won Game One 5-3 with a score in the 8th; Game Two 7-6 by overcoming a 4-2 deficit with four in the 7th, then watching Houston knot it with two in the top of the ninth before walking off on an unlikely one-out Scott Podsednick homer off Brad Lidge. Game Three took 14 innings to settle 7-5 and Game Four went to the eighth scoreless until a two-out single plated the game's only run.

The Series might not have been very competitive but each individual game was a barn burner.

Ditto for the 2015 Series. Many have noted that if baseball were an eight-inning affair the Mets would have won in five. The Royals saved their hitting for the final at bats, like a virgin awaiting marriage, despite a strong NY bullpen anchored by one of the league's best closers.

Of course, it wasn't all that surprising the KC owned the games' ends. Their pitching staff is built backwards, after all, which means they are more likely to relinquish runs in the initial six frames than in the final three (or beyond). Like most teams, the Mets are the opposite: their four stud starters were thought to be their golden ticket.

All of which gave rise to several false narratives during the World Series, narratives being the stock in trade of baseball broadcasters whose ability to transform a sporting competition into human drama with a moral component is critical to the enjoyment of the casual fan.

But we were put on this patch of outfield grass to bust myths, so let's get to it:

Myth 1: Terry Collins lost this World Series with his overuse, and then underuse, of Jeurys Familia
Reality: Without defending his decisions to wring two innings from his closer in a blowout and then keep him on the bench in the ninth inning of an apparent win, it's worth noting that the Game 5 choice of Harvey to complete the game is not only totally defensible -- he was dominating KC batters -- but also only marginally different than bringing in Familia. Without knowing what was going to happen, even a purely rational calculation would have pegged the odds of the Mets winning the game as only slightly worse with Harvey on the mound, if at all. The Mets lost that game because they hit safely four times in 12 innings.

Myth 2: The Royals won because they are built a new way -- to make contact and "keep the line moving."
Reality: The Royals are built to get hits and steal bases, and not to strike out, walk and hit home runs, mostly because that's the best strategy (the walks aside) for their bulbous home outfield. But their middle-of-the-pack run scoring ability among AL teams hardly screams "revolution." And remember how they rarely swung and missed in the first two games against Harvey and deGrom? In Game Five, Harvey fanned 11 in eight innings.

Myth 3: Kansas City won the World Series because they -- take your pick: Never Say Die, Hit Better In The Clutch, Have some special bond among the players, blabbity blab blab.
Reality: When a team stages one 11th-hour rally after another -- they led all of 14 innings in a World Series in which they won four times -- it's tempting to assign meaning to it. Very possibly there is some meaning; perhaps the Royals are supremely confident even when down, particularly knowing that their bullpen is superior to the opposition's. But the narrative you heard was all ex-post facto explanation for what was more likely somewhat random and inexplicable. I'll believe Fox's line of logic when it's predictive.

Myth 4: Kansas City's superior advance scouting won the series. They knew to run on Met pitching and Lucas Duda's arm, and to test NY's defensively challenged defensive middle.
Reality: Wow, how exactly did they crack that code? Did they ask a random Met fan on the street? Or a hot dog vendor at Citi Field? Those discerning horsehide experts must have attended two Met games in order to draft that insight.

It was a great postseason packed with teams whose fans have long-suffered. It followed an inspiring season that belied prediction. It was full of team surprises, wild individual accomplishments, rousing young talent and the unique rhythm of a sport played outdoors in Spring, Summer and Fall. It was wholly satisfying even if you're a fan of the fallen.

Let's do it again next year.

02 November 2015

Baseball Royalty: It Wasn't Really A Drought

The narrative this postseason -- one that satisfied my deep sense of sports fan justice -- was that the teams competing for the championship were, save for St. Louis and the Yankees, all seeking to end long periods wandering aimlessly in the desert. The Cubs are the cliche, but even the finalists from KC and NY were 30 and 29 years without ultimate victory.

It's so romantic that the story engulfs us. Little guy overachieves. Starving fan base finally quenched. Good guys victorious over the evil empires. It feels so good, World Series ratings spiked -- until games went past midnight Eastern.

But a little arithmetic demonstrates that it's all a mirage.

There are 15 teams in each league. On average, each team should win the pennant twice every 30 years.

There are two leagues. So on average, each team wins the World Series every other time they make the finals, or once every 30 years.

(The number of teams in each league has fluctuated a little over that time, with Milwaukee's move to the NL giving the Senior Circuit 16 of the 30 teams until Houston fled to the AL. That has slightly altered the odds.)

In the last 30 years, the Royals won two pennants and one championship. Perfectly average.

The Mets played in their third World Series -- a little above average -- but haven't won the title -- a little below.

If we look at the other teams in the playoffs, we get much the same thing. Toronto hasn't won a pennant in 22 years, but they hoisted two flags in two seasons before that. The Rangers and Astros are overdue for titles (none between them in nearly 100 combined years of play), but Texas has two pennants in the last five years and the Astros have one in the last 10.

What really marks these teams was how poorly most of them had competed during their drought periods. With four teams in each league earning a playoff spot each of the last 20 seasons (that number is now up to five, thanks to the play-in) a fan base could expect, on average, to see their home nine make the tournament eight times every 30 years. The Blue Jays and Royals hadn't earned a postseason berth since their last World Series; the Pirates hadn't had a winning season for two decades, and the others on this year's playoff roster have all likewise underachieved.

They've been victimized by the Cardinals and Bronx Bombers who have, combined, participated in the postseason 33 times in those 30 years. Hate the Red Sox (13 playoff runs) and Braves (17) too, though at least they had the grace to finish last in their division and third worst in the Majors, respectively, this year.

So, yay for the World Champion Royals, and for the NL champion Mets, and good luck to Houston, Texas, Toronto, Pittsburgh, the Dodgers and, godalmighty, the Cubs. Let's just temper our condolences for many of their fans.