05 February 2016

Big Free Agent Deals Don't Equal Pennants

Now that the hot stove has cooled, it's tempting to review off-season winners and losers by the yardstick of big free-agent signings and high-salary acquisitions. Not only is that demonstrably the wrong lens through which to analyze the off-season, the off-season isn't much of a precursor to the season itself.

Consider who was active last winter. The White Sox brought in Jeff Samardzija, Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera, and nonetheless posted another losing record. Miami acquired Dee Gordon, Dan Haren and Mat Latos -- and sputtered to a sub-.500 finish. And most significantly, the Red Sox inked deals with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who turned in two of the worst performances in the Majors, consigning Boston to last place.

Once again, New Englanders are tantalized by the upcoming season with David Price anchoring the rotation and Craig Kimbrel closing, particularly during an off-season in which the Yankees uncharacteristically stayed put. It seems far more likely that the Sox will succeed in 2016 because of the relative pittance they pay Xander Bogarts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley than the giant contract Price commands.

The Trout Effect
Indeed, the value of big payrolls is measurably declining, and not just anecdotally because the Royals and Mets squared off in the World Series and only two of the 90-win teams were Top Ten in payroll (with Texas 10th.). In 2009, there was a 47% correlation between payroll and wins; that was down to 21% last year. Large payrolls allow franchises to withstand one bad deal but they are decreasingly relevant otherwise.

One big reason for that is the disconnect between the way players age and the way they are paid. Many athletes -- think Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Pujols and Mike Trout -- peak in their first few years. After 30, they decline rapidly. Griffey is a first ballot HOFer despite averaging 19 homers and a .260 batting average after age 30.

Players are salary-constrained their first six full seasons. That means most regulars won't reach free agency until at least 29 -- Trout will be an exception -- right about the time their performance begins tailing off. Most free agent signings are rearview mirror deals.

Damn the Torpedoes!
In this intriguing recap of the hot stove period, Sports On Earth's Anthony Castrovince lauds those clubs that stayed the course, even when the course did not involve free agent adventures. As the Blue Jays demonstrated in 2015, sometimes allowing a good roster to just play is the best strategy.

Last season, only three of the 30 best players joined their teams via free agency. It's likely that the best players in baseball in 2016 will be the likes of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correia, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw and their ilk, not Jason Heyward or Wei-Yin Chen, whose net worth increased nearly $300 million combined this winter.




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